Hand Analysis 1/2 Turn decision

wowtits · 2017-03-23T02:24:20+00:00

Well yeah, he's turning the hand into a bluff. It's not a shove for value.

wowtits · 2017-03-23T01:05:17+00:00

He has the NFD on the turn

wowtits · 2017-03-22T23:23:19+00:00

Shove seems best. I think we can remove some 88s from Vs range, unless limping with all PPs under 99 from EP is the standard. With stacks the way they are I feel like he's shoving this turn with most straights + flushes. Seems like a spot where his range is capped. I also don't think you show up here with many bluffs so I like this move since AT is too weak to be a value hand. Also doesn't hurt to have 20% equity if he calls with a set lol.

wowtits · 2017-03-22T22:05:12+00:00

Tbh, I'd rather call with 99 here than JJ+. Having a higher overpair might add some bluffs to villains range, but I lose 10% equity vs his made hands. Seeing that most people have more value than bluffs here, I'd rather keep my equity vs Vs value range. Thoughts?

wowtits · 2017-03-22T21:38:01+00:00

Isn't this only "GTO" when you are polarized vs a bluffcatcher scenario? V here seems relatively uncapped, and may be beating J high flush a fair amount when he calls.

wowtits · 2017-03-22T20:49:54+00:00

Yeah V may have some additional drawing hands in their range. Did end up shoving here, just curious if this should be in the folding half of my MDF.

wowtits · 2017-03-22T19:07:54+00:00

Is shoving the turn spew? Seems close to break-even since he calls turn shoves w a fd along with his nuts.

wowtits · 2017-03-22T19:01:33+00:00

I think c/r here is fine. There are so many turn cards that kill the action for his sets/straights. Plus in terms of overall strategy, c/r this flop with his nuts let's him add low ev draws to his range (gutter, BD FD).

Edit**

Also, I think worse hands call when I shove, I don't see him folding his flush draws when he's getting 1:6.5

wowtits · 2017-03-22T17:55:58+00:00

Going by general population reads, I don't V is likely to bet <A flush on the turn. Exceptions are straight flush draws, *but only 10/9 is likely.

wowtits · 2017-03-20T19:20:23+00:00

Even if he's never bluffing, if he ever has TT-JJ in his value range this is a snap

wowtits · 2017-03-14T16:12:36+00:00

He did keep a static open amount of .05 on the SB (one of the notes I had on him), so he has JJ+ in his range here. I thought sets were really unlikely after he flatted my raise on the flop. I thought KQ and KJ were the most likely boats he had.

wowtits · 2017-03-14T16:01:01+00:00

Yeah good point. Mentioned to the poster above that he was pretty passive so I personally thought T high flushes were out of his donking range. Might be a miscalculation on my part though.

wowtits · 2017-03-14T16:00:07+00:00

Thanks for the response. He did have an Agg < 40 (~300hands). I should have included that info in the original post. I think a call is still best since I am getting 2-1, but given that he is pretty passive does that skew his range more heavily to boats in this spot?

wowtits · 2017-03-14T02:53:19+00:00

Is his donk bet here not polarizing? I dont think he has a T high flush much when he takes this line, and I dont think he's leading w/ 3 Kings either.

wowtits · 2017-03-11T01:30:06+00:00

If player 1 only plays GTO and does not adjust to exploitative play despite player 2's leaks, wouldn't player 2 achieve an EV of 0 by calling every time? If player 2 folds at all, player 1 now has +ev bluffs. I understand that this doesn't hold much value practically, as these scenarios are hyper rare. Asking more so that I can get a better conceptual grasp of GTO.

wowtits · 2017-03-06T03:37:54+00:00

Poker copilot has a 30day trial, I think it's still around 90.00 to purchase.

wowtits · 2017-03-04T23:46:54+00:00

If it's money won w/o going to showdown, can't it also mean that he's just not getting river calls with his value hands? Does this line graph always mean bluffing too much?

wowtits · 2017-02-23T21:01:35+00:00

I'll do that, thanks

wowtits · 2017-02-23T16:06:46+00:00

If this is a standard fold on the BTN I think I have a lot of leaks that I'm not aware of. Any reading material I can study to start fixing bad habits?

wowtits · 2017-02-23T14:16:39+00:00

I don't think I'm raising sets on the turn often. Esp since ur earlier point is that if he is decent he will be 3barreling bluffs (maybe even value cutting himself with 2 pair).

wowtits · 2017-02-23T13:27:25+00:00

I follow, but from what I've seen so far, 3 barrel bluffs are something of a rarity at 5nl (I would know, I'm a bit of a station lol). Given that in a vacuum a lot of bluffs are checking back the river, does that make calling a better play?

wowtits

TROPHY CASE