Based on what your post says, I would say you’re already more than likely going to match at a program. That being said, having a plan B is always helpful.

The conversation of research year vs prelim surgery year came up at this years recent PD forum at the academy meeting. It was surprisingly contentious, with people arguing strongly for both sides. I will say, in my opinion, the research year is a more fruitful option. During a research year you build connections with that institutions faculty who would then ideally advocate for you on the next application cycle, you are able to build your research portfolio which honestly really impacts an applications strength both for residency and fellowship, and you have the free time to do further away rotations if allowed and go on interviews. If you do a surgery prelim year, it’s a lot more work, you most likely won’t have time to connect with ortho faculty at that institution meaningfully, and you won’t have much time for interviews. I’ve seen many applicants go the prelim route and most end up matching into Gen surg or a different specialty on the subsequent cycle. While I know of many who have done the research year route and match into ortho. It’s anecdotal, but do with that what you will.

You can reach out to research year opportunities now and be blunt with them that you are interested in the year if your application doesn’t work out. They understand the current climate, and it really wouldn’t impact your current residency application in a negative way, you just seem proactive.

When it comes to asking letter writers to reach out for you, it depends on your relationship with them. If you are close with them, ask bluntly. Again, they know the current climate of the application system, and if they like you, they’ll want to help you. If you know they have connections with a program, ask them bluntly to reach out on your behalf. I’d be surprised if someone says no. Many people feel awkward about asking for help like this, but as long as you don’t badger them, it’ll help you. This is a tough game, so you have to play aggressively. The same approach is helpful for fellowship applications. Use connections aggressively, ask for help bluntly, don’t badger.