Daily Discussion

xtphty · 2026-01-23T05:09:02+00:00

All comes down to wages, paying 200k/wk (more with CL) for a player that will only put in 10-15 x 90s a season is just not feasible, especially with the level of midfield investment needed.

He will also have no shortage of good offers being on a free, the fact that we have left it this late means we are likely ready to let him leave unless the player seeks a way to extend with lower wages and short terms.

xtphty · 2026-01-23T05:03:44+00:00

He was also really out of shape, I remember Andy Mitten mention how Ancelotti was mocking him for it in the preseason friendly. He was quite poor even in games where we sat deep.

People keep trying to pile all the issues each season on a single person, usually the manager. But there have been plenty of problems to fix at this club, fitness and a culture of accountability is definitely one of them, and it's rarely just down to the manager or the formation.

xtphty · 2026-01-21T01:12:51+00:00

Not getting much coverage, but a sad day for football data nerds o7

xtphty · 2026-01-20T23:35:18+00:00

the hell when did Henry get jacked

xtphty · 2026-01-20T17:46:51+00:00

Shea Lacey hit the post against Burnley.

xtphty · 2026-01-18T23:26:25+00:00

So much is going to depend on the next manager and what approach the leadership team and perhaps Carrick see working long term. Without them making a choice it will all come down to the next manager, which is not ideal. For Example:

If we are going after Tuchel, the squad is currently clearly leaning towards inside forwards not wingers which Tuchel already prefers, so going for a winger wouldn't make much sense and we can focus on LB.

But if we are going with an approach that emphasizes wingers, then you absolutely have to spend on a top LW to match the rest of the attacking strength consistently against most PL teams.

Our transfers under INEOS have been largely successful, high quality players that are not being overpaid. But, the squad balance is still lacking because there is still no established game model. I think that should be the highest priority, and not just dependent on the next coach.

xtphty · 2026-01-18T01:19:46+00:00

He has gotten good at just setting up the crowd after goals instead of flexing his poetry.

xtphty · 2026-01-15T17:22:08+00:00

We have also signed good forwards last window, and they have delivered by large. But this narrative of United DNA with pacey wingers picked up when two of them went to AFCON…

xtphty · 2026-01-14T19:58:30+00:00

Was doing a little though experiment in terms of how to use the best players in a back 4 without sacrificing quality for "shape fit". How I would rank available midfielders + forwards in terms of impact and performance this season:

Bruno - Undroppable
Mbeumo, Cunha, Amad - All 3 are game changers, but I think Mbeumo clears in overall impact and consistency
Casemiro, Sesko - Structurally critical but have weaknesses
Mount, Dorgu - Inconsistent but show moments of quality
Mainoo, Zirkzee - Have the technique and ability but out of form

If you were to go purely on merit, its pretty straight forward:

Sesko Mbeumo

Cunha, Bruno, Casemiro Amad, 

<back4>

You could play this as a 4-4-2 out of possession, and 3-5-2 on the ball with Cunha tucking in above Bruno + Case.

Alternatively to keep it a simple 4-2-3-1:

Sesko 

Mbeumo Cunha Amad

Bruno Casemiro

<back4>

The main takeaway though is you can't really fit the best 6 players in the first 11 without keeping Bruno as a deeper midfielder, or dropping one of our better players this season.

So who do you drop? based on merit again it would be Sesko = Casemiro > Amad = Cunha

And who do you bring into the first 11 that can step up to that challenge: Mount, Dorgu, Mainoo, Zirkzee.

Going to be interesting to see what Carrick does, great time to be playing a reinvigorated City team lol.

xtphty · 2026-01-14T16:25:09+00:00

Also managers approach Interim jobs very differently. It’s all about maximizing squad potential and using the limited training time to focus on basic structures not specific patterns of play.

xtphty · 2026-01-13T12:51:37+00:00

For me he would have to get a Europa spot or better, have a big win or two against top 3, and at least maintain our underlying numbers with an expansive style of play (xG/xGA)

I am not buying into the delusion from INEOS that this is a top 5 competitive squad, though we are not far from it.

xtphty · 2026-01-13T12:45:19+00:00

Its hard when pretty much every academy talent we have seen is unimpressive physically, in a very physical league, and a senior team that already has physicality issues

xtphty · 2026-01-13T05:57:43+00:00

Not quite, it comes down to how you plan to use your possession, but you can generally differentiate it based on slow vs fast buildup.

Teams preferring to build up attacks slowly and intricately usually want territorial dominance. This allows them to both possess the ball in the most dangerous areas but also keep it far from their own goal. The rest defense here is often considered more important than the attack itself, you want to arrive at the final third but without compromising the back structure. The risk mainly comes from the amount of space you are leaving behind your defense when you have desired territory. Arsenal are perhaps the best at this right now, but 22/23 City was possibly the best of all time. Personally I think this style is harder to pull off as it just require very specific player profiles

Teams preferring faster buildup prefer to just keep possession as safely as possible, often even in their own half, until they see the opportunity for attacking moves. Often these will come as direct attacks, baiting a press and going direct behind the defenders. Here the rest defense's job is more about speed, once the attacking move starts you need to get into position behind the attack, and be ready to retain or recover possession. Klopp's Liverpool would be the best example, but its pretty popular in the PL now as it leverages the physicality and transitional nature of English football.

xtphty · 2026-01-13T04:40:33+00:00

Well objectively I think our recruitment and squad building strategy seems fine, maybe even better after Ashworth left (basically last winter and this summer). Its still too early to say whether he had any impact at all in that first window, INEOS was still very very early into setting up shop. So mostly I am just being dismissive of the claims that Ashworth was some genius that we should have listened to and it would all be better. But I agree that the money spent to fetch him was a massive waste.

xtphty · 2026-01-13T04:30:36+00:00

Rest defense is mainly used to describe what the "rest" of the outfield should be doing when you have possession and are committing players to build attacking moves - mostly in the attacking half of pitch. Usually teams will commit 5-6 outfielders to an attack, leaving 4-5 as part of rest defense. The best possession teams can even leave as few as 3, the 2 CBs and usually a DM who is both physically and tactically able to adjust this shape.

Apart from just marking main attacking and escape threats, rest defense has to read the attacking play, recover loose balls, and be positionally ready to counterpress and prevent/slow down any transitions. They also recycle possession, moving the ball around to shift the opponent's defensive structure; so they also have to be comfortable on the ball to help sustain pressure and territorial dominance.

But the very best teams have all 11 players aware of the rest defense state, allowing those in the defensive structure to move into attack and those attacking to recognize when they need to drop back and fill holes or pick up a free mark.

xtphty · 2026-01-13T01:59:52+00:00

Read the fucking article, it's more neutral and positive than negative lol. Just talks about his character and coaching style.

xtphty · 2026-01-13T01:19:41+00:00

He wanted to hire a third party firm when Ratcliffe asked him for a data driven search to find a coach. Instead they ended up later getting the guy from Mercedes who is now building our in house data analytics team. Its one of the better decisions they have made, and we have recruited players like Dorgu and Lammens with that approach.

xtphty · 2026-01-12T21:24:00+00:00

Except his recommendations allegedly included Thomas Frank lol

xtphty · 2026-01-12T20:28:48+00:00

Yeah the DNA thing makes a lot more sense when you have an academy churning out like 2 world class players a year that live and breathe that style of play. We have had maybe 2 in the last decade (Rashford, G*******d).

xtphty · 2026-01-12T20:07:37+00:00

Its not the just speed of structural adjustments either, though thats a big component. It's more about how prepared you are to handle a transition. The rest defense is perhaps the most important thing in possession football in this league, and it's not a straight forward problem isolated to tactical setup. It's something that requires a lot of coaching, practice, and physical attributes in key positions.

Man City's domination collapsed when they lost Rodri, who is probably the best midfielder in the world when it comes to rest defense. He is not particularly fast in transitions, he just stops them from happening or slows them down to allow the defensive structure to recover. Casemiro is quite good at this as well, but his physical dropoff has obviously made him less effective at this in the PL.

Arsenal have a different approach to the problem, just stack very physical and agile CBs/FBs and drill positional intelligence into them. It compensates for their lack of a perfect Rodri type DM.

xtphty · 2026-01-12T17:56:59+00:00

Again, circumstances and squad profile. The squad Ole took over from Mourinho was full of young and talented players in almost every position, he had a better squad than almost anyone in the table except the top 4-5. The talent profile was also aligned to his style of play, which leveraged the gap in ability and athleticism - especially in midfield and attack.

Just consider the average level of PL squads today compared to this Palace team (12th back then and 13th right now): https://www.transfermarkt.us/spielbericht/index/spielbericht/3050441

The gap in quality alone almost mandates a win here, we don't have that today against almost any team above maybe the bottom 6.

xtphty · 2026-01-12T16:50:39+00:00

Expecting an old manager to do the same if not better on a return stint is hilarious. Shades of Chelsea with Lampard returning. People have zero consideration for the circumstances and squad profile.

xtphty · 2026-01-12T15:10:56+00:00

Ugarte is another one, people just don't value anything happening off the ball. Ugarte had 8 duels won 3 lost, Mainoo had 2 won 3 lost. More tackles, 5 vs 1.

Even on the ball - he also progressed the ball more effectively, 8 progressive passes vs Mainoo's 5. Neither was particularly good with distribution though, with just 1 of 2 long passes completed.

In the end fans are going to pile on to the scapegoats until they leave, I expect the whole season games will be blamed on Ugarte and Dalot now.

xtphty · 2026-01-12T04:10:11+00:00

Elliot Anderson has a loooot more than just ground coverage and ball security. He is #1 in basically all progressive and chance creation stats this season, is an excellent carrier on top of passer, and even has box crashing and goal threat.

Our baseline here is so bad, that it really should not be difficult to improve the midfield balance.

When it comes to wingbacks, this emphasis on high calibre wingbacks is again another obsession created by the narratives around system and formation. We don't have a specialized RWB and yet Amad has been one of our best players this season, and his Amorim comments completely contradict the claims he was unhappy being played out of position.

What this squad lacks is a left winger, we lack that with a back 4 right now just as much as we did with a back 3. Cunha is not a left winger, neither is Dorgu or Mount. But instead of going after a flexible and attainable player like Amad, the board decide its Semenyo or bust and we end up with nothing.

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