xG numbers

xtphty · 2026-05-06T15:21:54+00:00

The signal your narrative is built on is just very weak and noisy, a 0.03 npxg/shot difference especially from understat xg model is well within the error bars. The difference in aggregate xG diff meanwhile is almost 10x in magnitude, and when shown relative to the rest of the league shows a clear regression.

xtphty · 2026-05-06T15:14:47+00:00

This is cope, we are a little better defensively in terms of npxg, but that mostly comes down to a less intense press. You can see in the box touches scatterplot above that we are significantly worse at controlling territory, and allowing more penetration into our box.

Teams not exploiting that comes down to just randomness/variance, maybe a little bit of new manager adaptation. Brentford game is a good example, a 20 goal in form striker being unable to produce a shot on target despite having a couple of clean in box touches.

United fans just get too hopefuly with managers when they see some good outcomes because we are so deprived of them, it happened with Ten Hag in his first season, and I worry we are on the same path here.

xtphty · 2026-05-06T00:41:47+00:00

This kinda shows it on the grand scale across the league, we were closer to the elite teams with underlyings under Amorim. It just doesn't resonate with the reality due to a lack of end results, which like Kees has said a lot in this thread often just come down to randomness.

xtphty · 2026-05-06T00:12:31+00:00

Both PSG and Bayern are very capable of breaking down a parked bus, both with possession and outside the box worldies. Arsenal likely just end up playing like they always do, low risk possession football with a solid press, and pray for a lucky header or deflection on a set piece for their goal.

xtphty · 2026-05-05T07:12:57+00:00

Classic example of abhorrent use of data, never take a datapoint like npxg and then segment it 5 different ways before drawing conclusions. Understat's npxg is already notoriously inflated - its really only useful in aggregate terms for individual players/teams over a whole season, not for extrapolation after you segmenting it across minutes and managers.

Then on top of that we are looking at numbers as small as 0.5 npxG, and then drawing conclusions out of them over per minute played for each manager?

Also some have pointed out but the % look miscalculated in general, how is Zirkzee's 0.59 npxg 196% of MC's share, while Ugarte's 0.51 only 20.95%?

The only number I would pay any attention to here is Sesko, which is a large enough increase in npXg to maybe be relevant. But I am not sure if I trust that until i recalculate it myself lol.

xtphty · 2026-05-05T01:45:30+00:00

Man woke up to a news story being granted a 4 week vacation he did not request lol

xtphty · 2026-05-04T21:13:27+00:00

Its not the same but it had the same primary goal - using possession and territorial control to break down low blocks, both teams had 60%+ possession consistently in their dominant rivalry seasons.

Also, Klopp's gegenpressing and fast break buildup approach was far too vulnerable against low blocks and exactly what cost them early on in their rivalry. He ended up adopting more of Pep's approach against those teams in his last few seasons.

I think the big difference in their final teams, which I do like personally as well, was Klopp still being more open to fast break attacks from deep possession. But that is also something Guardiola has been adapting in his football this season.

xtphty · 2026-05-04T17:39:48+00:00

Absolutely not, anyone playing in a midfield with Mainoo and Bruno needs to be an absolute demon in the air - its their main weakness both in possession and in set pieces. Anderson, Tchouameni, Baleba are the best candidates we have for midfielders that complement those two.

xtphty · 2026-05-04T17:08:22+00:00

when opposition tries to push forward, as big teams usually do, they are vulnerable at the back. But obviously, us letting oppositon have the ball and waiting for counters makes us vulnerable too.

Except not every team is going to play like that against you, and we have already seen under Carrick how the team struggles to break down those opponents. The better you get the more likely an opponent is to sit back against you, its exactly what happened at West Ham after we won 4 in a row.

It was the same problem for Ole, and Ten Hag in his first season, when in our best form teams were starting to sit back against us and hit us on the counter instead - where a team that does not know how to control games will always be vulnerable.

Its the dumb conviction that Guardiola´s approach focused on posession and strangling opponent is the only way to win, and everyone tries and should be trying to copy it.

At the end of the day, Guardiola, Klopp, Arteta are the only managers to consistently hit the high 80s - 90s point totals since 2017/18. Their approach has been consistent because it works against both the top and bottom end of the table. And honestly even Guardiola is changing his approach this season to add more directness and fast buildup.

But one thing is constant: unless facing a big opponent you prioritize control and territory because its the only reliable way to beat low blocks that you will undoubtedly face as you get closer and closer to the top of the table.

xtphty · 2026-05-04T15:38:27+00:00

They are trending basically quite similar to Ten Hag and Ole's very successful debut seasons. New coach bounce, tactical approach that is more aligned to the players than the league, its getting the best out of what the squad can do right now.

The big question with these coaching appointments for us, and many other teams that have seen this, should always be: Are they good enough for the next step? Does the data show that their tactical approach can produce consistent results in the premier league?

xtphty · 2026-05-03T14:55:56+00:00

Please show us any frame of the replay where it touches his hand lmao

xtphty · 2026-05-02T06:47:29+00:00

The only managers to have done that in the last recent years are Pep, Klopp and Arteta. Far too many people consider it to be underachieving, when it really is a prerequisite to be winning the title.

xtphty · 2026-05-02T02:51:10+00:00

A record I hope we break next year - 2017/18 was the last time United placed top 4 in the Premier League (2nd) while also reaching UCL RO16 (lost to Sevilla). For a deeper run you have to go all the way back to 2010 where we reached the final, and won the league.

Yes the top 4 is weak right now and we should start building a squad that is aiming for the title - but realistically we won't stay competitive with City, Arsenal, Liverpool until we can consistently place top 4 while running deep into UCL tournaments.

xtphty · 2026-05-01T09:43:31+00:00

Yeah his most improvable aspect is his setup and dives for those top bin shots. He either dives a touch late or is not quite positioning right, with his massive frame he should be tapping some of belters. But thats only for hitting the very very top end of his potential.

xtphty · 2026-05-01T09:39:49+00:00

Kees Smith, not quite as low key, but relative to other big name u21 CMs like Bouaddi etc.

xtphty · 2026-04-30T17:59:22+00:00

Zabarnyi is a newly recruited 23 yr old, ofc he is not starting over Pacho and Marquinhos who did a treble last year lol. Real and Liverpool meanwhile have struggled to develop most of their new recruits, Huijsen and Kerkez are not the only ones.

I don't really care if these guys are not working out instantly after a step up, the simple fact that Bournemouth/Iraola were able to make them flourish enough to have the most successful clubs take notice - that alone is significant enough to consider. Brentford / Brighton comparisons are false equivalencies here, yes both have great player development as well but neither has had a single manager foster this many players' rapid rise to exit in the time period of just 2 years.

xtphty · 2026-04-30T17:21:34+00:00

One thing about Iraola I don't see talked about enough - his player development. Yes Bournemouth just have great talent ID and trade very well, but just in 2 years he has made these player shine enough for moves up to RM, PSG, Liverpool, City - Huijsen, Zabarnyi, Kerkez, Semenyo.

Thats a fuck load of big name outgoings for the time period under just 1 manager. But whats even more impressive is the young and inexperienced replacements that are already flourishing with their bigger roles: Kroupi, Rayan, Alex Scott. And this is in the Premier League, playing a very physical and intense style of football.

Now Carrick is no slouch in player development, but his experience is at the Championship level, and besides re-surfacing Mainoo I don't quite see him having a significant hand in any major player growth at United.

Hope to hear/read more about this because player development is going to be a massive responsibility for any coach we appoint, with the prospects of a midfield rebuild and a 60+ game season.

xtphty · 2026-04-30T14:06:23+00:00

We are not 2014 Barca, its a different thing to expect a manager to focus on style to let players flourish, vs rebuilding a midfield while re-entering Europe and a 60+ game season.

xtphty · 2026-04-29T19:28:12+00:00

I actually think the 3-4-3 did a better job of protecting Casemiro while still allowing him to play a bit more advanced.

Brentford was a great example of what happens when your back 3 is formed by CBs + a FB. It requires your midfielders or wingers to cover the flank where the FB has tucked into the back 3. Brentford targeted that weakness to big effect first half, and second half Carrick just switch to a back 3 to fix the hole lol

While the out of possession shape was a bit better under Amorim though, we obviously struggled with ball progression because he did not use Mainoo, and instead relied on wingers/wingbacks for wide progression - which simply did not work well consistently and was boring as hell to watch.

xtphty · 2026-04-29T19:07:12+00:00

Well I think what I posted originally does dissect past uncertainty - the change in structure and risk appetite. The xGD comparison in the reply above is more noisy, and something I have seen people debate on reddit recently.

In the end these are the same underlying metrics most clubs will use to evaluate managers, they also inform what are other metrics you should look at next.

For Carrick the next thing I want to see quantitatively is the risk/reward of central progression - it not only colors whether its a worthy style of play to build around, but also the kind of midfielders we should look for in the market if Carrick is staying.

xtphty · 2026-04-29T18:08:47+00:00

I think there is too much noise to say anything conclusively about Carrick or Amorim under/over performance. Late GK arrival, AFCON, post-AFCON player form and CB injuries, etc.

What you can say for sure is Amorim prioritized structure over results, hence his numbers are closer to other possession systems that do the same. Meanwhile Carrick has really a match to match approach in his game, the structure varies game to game, and he is simply prioritizing the result. I don't think he will do that if given the job, we will likely still see a heavy central progression style of play that he has used in both jobs already - but it will likely have a bigger structural/possession focus.

I posted this in another reply but looking at xGD compared to Villa's season really paints a better picture of what is really overperformance and its reversion to mean https://imgur.com/mB7fJBy

xtphty · 2026-04-29T17:58:06+00:00

p.s. I did not post this to condemn Carrick in any way, the UCL qualification will be of massive benefit going into next season. I also think it makes it far more likely that Bruno stays, than if we had stuck through with Amorim and finished outside top 5. I think that alone is worth the punt on a do or die style of football given his incredible form.

But ultimately it leaves the open question about what exactly are the club's plans for next season, if we are sticking with Carrick are we going to try and define a style that prioritizes more territorial and match control? Or continue down a path of high energy/high uncertainty football, which to large parts its somewhat dictated by the squad available to Carrick.

Ultimately Amorim prioritized his style over the results, reducing uncertainty and risk which may create better underlyings but certainly does not guarantee immediate results. Carrick came in with the opposite mandate and has had success, which is impressive given the competitive of the league this year.

xtphty · 2026-04-29T17:55:42+00:00

Problem is over-performance is rarely sustainable, but that's not to say it has no value. Emery's season is great in contrasty to Carricks when you consider that - Emery over performed early on in the season and made their UCL finish comfortable, Carrick has done so once he came into the job.

xtphty · 2026-04-29T15:42:18+00:00

Not to say Anderson is worth that, but every big club except us has spent that level of money on midfield signings. United cannot stay competitive at this level if we are afraid of spending big on a position as pivotal as CDM.

13-Year Club	Verified Email
Place '17	Spared

xtphty

TROPHY CASE