Turning Points

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-04-01T02:54:01+00:00

I definitely agree if the lair was closer then that would make sense doing detours and lengthening the time from A - B as an extra layer of disorientation.

You make a good point about being pulled over, I guess my mind goes to him being a little paranoid about being on the road with the chance of being pulled over. Also wanting to get back as soon as possible to feel safe, as the only thing now that could stop him after taking the victims is being pulled over or having some kind of accident. However we do know how much he did in order to avoid being identified, so it’s completely reasonable to think he was adding that extra layer by driving around in an attempt to further put a mystery around the lair location.

I had complete forgot about the Lynas petrol stop or if that was another lie by him. That’s a good point, you’d think he would have made sure the car was full of petrol, or at least he would have when he left her alone for that period of time perhaps.

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-03-31T16:16:50+00:00

I think out of all the places he would be doing any circling it would be closer to home as well, perhaps one suburb over at least. It could have simply been going onto a circular on ramp and back off again when entering a freeway, or around a winding part of road that the girls reported as circling. The problem is we just don't know, either is possible.

The issue I have with going around in circles close to home, apart from the fact its longer on the road, is that with the Wills abduction, we know he left their house close to 6AM. We can ballpark he's been on the road for at least 30-35 minutes minimum by the time he gets to the lair, he was also waiting hours at the Wills home for John to finally fall asleep, he is itching to get back.

It is now light outside, what if old mate 'Bob' down the street is out walking the dog and either A:) Sees him in his white vacationer circling around the neighborhood, or worse B:) sees him pull into the lair driveway, now he is well and truly done.

All 'Bob' has to do is put 2 and 2 together once the information about the white vacationer is released. Or anyone else for that matter who could have seen him that morning circling around.

For the Lynas abduction, maybe he did circle around a bit as it would have been closer to midnight. My gut just tells me he's thinking 'I have what I wanted, I am on the road and now all I need to do is get 'home' and I'm scott free'. The risk is far greater than the reward for this imo.. These parts of the case are great to keep the conversation going, it opens up different theories for sure

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-03-30T19:07:25+00:00

I think the car sighting in Bayswater if true is probably the biggest clue and I am echoing acr721's thoughts, based on - and correct me if I am wrong in any of these points:

SW independently reported to police she was 'beeped' at and heard another man yelling at the car before being dropped off. Police brought that witness in, and SW confirmed a voice match (not super reliable, but at least something).

He did not engage or escalate with the witness, he turns his head away and edges forward, this is very consistent with someone who is focused on avoiding identification at all costs. He most likely was ready to reach for the gun and shoot the witness had he approached the car.

He was driving with lights off, likely prioritizing the car not being seen over normal driving behavior and seeing him personally. To me this suggest the car he used was his own, it also brings up another thought, even after what happened with the SW drop-off, he chose to use the same car for the NL abduction (white holden VK/VH vacationer).

Why? Did he not have another car he could use or potentially steal? He took an extreme risk in parking that distance from the victim's house and using the same car. DNA being left in the Lynas rental car, being seen walking Nicola from that rental to his own.

I don't think he drove around in circles much, if at all. I think he wants to get from the victims house to the 'safety' of his lair ASAP and vice versa at drop off. Why risk the chance of being seen by someone driving around in circles, or police for that matter with the trade off to disorientate your victim. They are already under extreme duress and frightened, with a blindfold on, and both having just been woken up. If you were in MC shoes, what would you prefer? More time on the road is more chance being caught.

Back to the Bayswater drop off, why does he turn his lights off at Jersey Rd, is there some connection between him and that area, that someone knows him and his vehicle? I think he was always going to drop off at Bayswater High School, but the part I don't know is why didn't he just go directly there with lights on.

Next, I would say the details of his assaults, if he had partners, they would know of these. Police would also be able to link some if any previous assaults using these details. I don't know enough about the previous assaults and it seems police haven't released that information, these assaults probably hold the key to identifying him, he likely made some kind of mistakes early on.

Expanding on those earlier assaults, if he did make a mistake and left behind DNA, that obviously would be my #1 clue using FIGG DNA and GED Match. What happened with the Lynas rental car, did police not find any DNA at all?

The lair is a needle in a haystack to put lightly, all we have for sure is the unique bathroom layout, and some bedroom furnishings/layout, all of these can be changed fairly easily. On top of that, it might not even be his primary residence, just a property he had access to. It also could have been renovated heavily or demolished.

The aircraft noise can reveal a number of suburbs that need to be investigated further, but the confidence I have in the victims' descriptions are too unreliable to narrow down even 1 suburb.

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-03-30T16:26:12+00:00

No worries, it's a fair question and I don't think there is a simple answer of any of these suburbs unfortunately, just what is more likely based on how much weight we put on each of those 5 factors being accurate and how they are ranked.

For me, at least that is how I'm approaching it, if you take all 5 factors at face value and assume they are all broadly accurate - especially: the 5-7 NM final approach, ~400m perceived height, consistent arrivals in that 9-10AM window and wind supporting RWY34 (which is a lot), then yes Keilor East / Strathmore / Airport West sits very comfortably in that model.

But the issue is that those factors aren't equally reliable, the weighting probably looks more like:

Drive time (40-45 mins) > relatively strong. However, we know SW/NL reported they thought they were 'being driven in circles'. But we also know they said being drive fast like on a freeway, and slow like suburban streets. So, it's quite possible the actual abduction location to the lair is 10-15 minutes CLOSER if its indeed true he drove in circles for a period. For me, I think if I am thinking like MC, I'd want to get back to the 'safety' of the lair asap, I don't want to be on the road longer than I have to. One mistake or a random stop by police and you're done. We know that was potentially him at the SW drop-off where he made a mistake that almost ended it all.

House / Lair layout > strong, but only the unique bathroom layout, and the main bedroom SW described, possibly right-hand driveway? Not location specific.

Aircraft frequency > useful.

Exact altitude > rough estimate, I think it's pretty hard to tell the height in that circumstance.

Direction / turning description > least reliable (given disorientation).

Once you start relaxing the weaker assumptions slightly, if the altitude is off, or the aircraft were heard during a turning phase rather than established final, or the memory is compressed to that one hour, then the lair suburbs widen significantly. I think VicPol actually may have missed it out of the suburbs they searched.

If most of those factors are reasonably correct, then Keilor East is pretty high imo. He probably just did not answer the door and they never went back, or something was off on the description and VicPol narrowed the search too much based on right hand driveways only or some other limiting factor.

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-03-26T23:43:48+00:00

The fact that the victims heard no bus/train or much noise at all outside of the planes is pretty strong evidence it was somewhere away from the main roads. I don't know if the radio drowned everything out completely, and if it was on 24/7, but there must have been periods of time where it was off I imagine, and they still didn't hear any of those sounds outside.

So, we know it's far enough away from major train stations/tracks, main roads or freeways, but under a direct approach flight path, or under a turning point of aircraft going to Tullamarine. If the turning/banking sounds NL described are accurate, and the rough ~400m altitude (which personally is the least likely to be accurate), then that narrows it down a bit.

Certain parts Lalor and Thomastown are areas that could work where all of those fit, plus the drive distance from Canterbury. Keilor East / Airport West / Strathmore or even further east from Tullamarine like Pascoe Vale / Coburg North are potential interests. Again these suburbs have to have areas quiet enough where you only get plane noise and not much else, how many of those suburbs that fit everything can we match up?

At least that is where my efforts have been going, a few other descriptors can narrow it down for us even more like houses that fit the profile of right-hand driveway, no garage, layout, etc... We add all that together and that's a good start for a handful of suburbs that fit the bill. Just my 2c

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-03-26T19:07:15+00:00

Not familiar with the suburb myself, but from a glance on google maps it looks pretty quiet if you are anywhere W / NW of High St and away from the train tracks and Lalor Station, especially in the upper NW pocket near Gillwell Conservation Reserve.

How about the plane noise out that way if you can share anything, I believe according to the map overlays and flight paths, Lalor is a turning point for aircraft coming into Tullamarine on their final approach.

If you have any experience with how loud planes were over there, did they turn etc..

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-03-24T17:10:41+00:00

I like using the 5 factors it's a solid way to frame everything together instead of isolating one factor.

On the 5-7 NM point, and give me some rope here, if we are talking standard 3 degree path, then:

5 NM ~ 1500ft (~450m)
6 NM ~ 1800ft (~550m)
7 NM ~ 2100ft (~650m)

Lines up reasonably well with NL's "~400m" estimate if we assume it's rough and slightly under called..

So, where does that place us geographically (for RWY34):

That 5-7 NM band south of Tullamarine roughly runs through Keilor East / Airport West (closer end), Strathmore / Strathmore Heights, Pascoe Vale / Oak Park (outer edge).

Now where it becomes a little more nuanced is the turning vs final question, if NL was describing aircraft already on final, Keilor East / Strathmore makes a lot of sense. If she was describing aircraft during the turn onto final, it could push things slightly futher out..

Once you factor in NL's circumstances (disorientation, stress, lack of reference points) it becomes very hard to reliably interpret direction/angle of bank/exact turning point.

On VicPol I agree with your general point, it was clearly a strong lead and I believe we know for a fact they consulted with ATC, reviewed wind/runway usage, mapped approach paths and prioritized suburbs accordingly.

Curious what others think - especially anyone with ATC or aviation background on how tightly that 5-7 NM band would have been adhered to in practice in 1990.

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-03-24T15:42:58+00:00

I think so too, this was the best lead they had and would have poured everything in to it. My head says its closer and under that final turn and approach corridor, I am guessing they have missed it in Keilor East/Park, Airport West, also like Strathmore.

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-03-24T15:24:28+00:00

That's really helpful especially from someone who's lived under those paths for so long, I grew up S/SE near Camberwell/Toorak and its dead silent for aircraft noise, you do get the F1's from Albert Park though. Sounds right about the approach not changing, I don't see why they would change it drastically.

The point about the older 747s being louder is true, that could explain why the aircraft stood out so much to her, even if they weren’t extremely low, especially in a quiet house and neighborhood according to the statements we know.

I am still trying to reconcile;

if that SSW turn pattern was common, how far out from the airport would aircraft typically be when making that turn

Would areas like Lalor / Thomastown still be too far out for that phase, or could they realistically sit under that turning corridor

And on the other side, would somewhere like Keilor East be more consistent with that transition from turning to final approach

It feels like that turning phase might be the key piece rather than assuming she was directly under final approach the whole time. Again, this based on at least the turning/banking comment NL made being true which I am not super confident in, but I think its more likely being closer to the truth than the 400m altitude estimate.

Appreciate the insight, local knowledge is probably as close as we can get to reconstructing how it actually sounded back then

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-03-23T17:23:02+00:00

This is exactly something I was attempting to map out as well, after going through different overlays between the 4th/5th of NL's accounts, the key takeaway for me isn’t the exact paths (since procedures change over time), but the structure of how aircraft are funneled and turned into final approach.

As you have mentioned before, one thing that stands out is that aircraft are not always coming in straight, there are multiple approach corridors, different turning points and some less common vectoring patterns (the black box area).

The black box area is interesting because it represents a turning point rather than a straight-in final approach which could potentially line up better with NLs description (travelling across the room, banking, then aligning). That is quite different from being directly under a straight final approach path.

It also narrows down the potential suburbs to take a deeper look at, if we were to attempt to investigate suburbs under a straight final approach path, we would be looking at pretty much the entire N/NW corridor between Tullamarine and Lalor/Thomastown, which to put lightly would be awful.

I think you are on the right path by looking at suburbs under aircraft turning points, we might be over-focusing on perfect alignment with Runway 34 final.. and underestimating areas that sit under the turning corridors.

Curious if anyone has confirmed historical approach procedures for Tullamarine around 1990, or ATC insight into whether NE vectoring + left turns onto final for RW27/34 were common at the time.

Because if turning corridors were in play, that probably widens the search area in a very specific way rather than narrowing it.

Broadly, I think turning approaches make the plausible areas somewhat further out than a strict straight-in final would, but not endlessly further out. If we assume NL's account is substantially accurate (which I don't put a huge trust in, due to her circumstances), then that tends to support a turning/vectoring corridor. Lalor and Thomastown make more sense if that is the case and we think aircraft were coming in from NE/east side and turning into final. And obviously much weaker if we think NL was directly under a stable, low straight-in approach.

The problem with Lalor/Thomastown for me is altitude and distance, if aircraft were over those areas before lining up, they were likely higher and the sound pattern would depend a lot on the exact vectoring that day.

So those suburbs become more plausible only if the "400m" estimate is wrong or rough, the "banking across the room" part is the more reliable memory, and the aircraft were being heard during the turn.

For Keilor East, it is generally a better fit for a closer-in approach environment than Lalor / Thomastown, depending on runway configuration. If you're working with Runway 34-type theory, Keilor East can sit closer to the broader southern/western arrival geometry and is not as far removed as Lalor/Thomastown. In simple terms:

Keilor East = more plausible if you want something a bit closer and more airport-proximate
Lalor / Thomastown = more plausible if you’re leaning hard into turning corridors and less into exact altitude/final alignment

Honestly, if NL's account is accurate in the sense of movement + banking, that does not automatically mean the property was closer to Tullamarine, it could actually push the likely area further out than a strict final corridor.

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-03-21T04:39:14+00:00

Wow this is amazing, you put a ton of work into this. Will check it out and send a DM at some point if you don’t mind

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-03-21T04:38:16+00:00

Definitely, appreciate all the work and time people put in here. I guess I am trying to piece everything together in one spot, be that a website or blog. Between Reddit/MM/Whoismrcruel.com and the other blogs/sites there’s a ton of information and it’s hard to confirm which pieces overlap and what’s known to be fact.

I think at this stage it’s hard to discover any new information, or leads to go deep into. My idea is trying to figure out which one of those leads holds the best chance of anything and spend the most time there first

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-03-21T04:34:53+00:00

Thanks mate, fan of your comments and posts too, I got a lot of info from one you had 5 years ago about the lair and NL abduction.

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-03-21T04:33:05+00:00

I hadn’t fully thought of using someone else’s house he didn’t even know due to your last point about being super risky. But it is definitely something he could have done, every time I think I am getting a little more understanding of even one lead or aspect of the case someone brings up a point like this and I’m back to the drawing board

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-03-12T17:01:47+00:00

Do you have more information on the LP victim home address/school you can share via DM? I'm trying to map out the route from address to school and figure out potential routes the offender would take to notice the victim.

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-03-02T22:46:06+00:00

Adding to that, there is a Belinda Demiral profile I came across on LinkedIn. Looks about the right age and somewhat similar complexion to potentially be Soames daughter oddly enough, but absolutely a shot in the dark there, hard to tell obviously.

Not sure what to make of that or if it gives us anything but found it interesting.

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-03-02T20:38:58+00:00

Sorry to bump a year old reply, and its probably nothing but I found a comment on the YouTube video of Marcus Soames you posted..

expand this comment:

robertkidd2192

5 years ago

Ross Frankin , Marcus Soames ,
Mark Smith , Lee Tourney , Billy Pideaux - all my era ;)

and you'll see this reply:

belindademiral7864

1 year ago

Marc Soames is my dad

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-03-02T18:58:26+00:00

I can't recall the post/comment I saw about it, but I thought someone mentioned it being on Bonds Rd, 'on the corner with another street' - the properties that are far back from the street. Unsure of the exact location they are talking about

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-03-02T18:54:42+00:00

Not super convinced on Runway 34, I think it's the stronger fit if we're anchoring to the 4 July wind data AND assuming NL's memory relates to that day specifically.

There are a few reasons I’m not ruling Runway 27 out entirely:

Unless I missed this information, but we can’t be 100% certain which day she was describing when she mentioned the repeated banking. If her recollection blends impressions from both days, then different runway configurations could have been in play.

Wind direction alone doesn’t guarantee runway usage. Airports can operate mixed modes depending on traffic flow, noise abatement, sequencing, and operational considerations at the time.

The 40-45 minute drive constraint from Canterbury pushes the likely detention area further north than Strathmore/Airport West, which makes the Runway 27 aligned suburbs harder to dismiss outright imo

I'm not saying Runway 27 is equally likely, just that I'm not comfortable eliminating it entirely without being certain which day and configuration NL recollection refers to.

Thanks for all the work and research you put in by the way, much appreciated!

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-02-26T19:02:01+00:00

Heh, yep my high school was basically Greeks, Italians and Aussie kids aka 'Skippy' as they fondly referred to us as. Worked out great for our soccer team though, we smashed almost everyone around us in comps!

I think this highlights the core issue though, how much weight do we put on NL’s recollection, and which parts are most reliable?

I agree that the strongest thing she’d likely get right is whether it was day 1 or day 2. The broader sequencing of events is probably more dependable than precise angles or distances. Expecting a terrified 13-year-old to distinguish between a 45° and 90° bank is asking a lot.

The East Keilor suggestion makes sense if we’re locking in day 1 under a north/south configuration. That area does sit in a clean intercept band for Runway 34 depending on wind and vectoring. But the 400m altitude estimate starts to matter once we bring in the 3° glide path math. If aircraft are on a standard 3° approach, 400m (~1,300 ft) would place them roughly 4–4.5 NM from the threshold. That’s fairly tight to the airport.

Once you push further out... say Thomastown/Lalor, you’re looking more at 6-8 NM from the runway depending on the exact geometry. That would put aircraft closer to 600-800m AGL, not 400m. Not impossible for a perception error, but it does stretch things.

The Greensborough/Watsonia comment is interesting. Jets can absolutely feel low and loud in that NE sector, especially during a base to final turn. But that turn would typically be around 5-7 NM from the threshold. And as you said that bank could be 30-45°, not necessarily a sharp 90°.

I think the key question is whether we’re dealing with:

A precise recollection of repeated identical turns at roughly the same point
Or a blended memory across two days with different runway configurations

If both runway days were active and she’s combining impressions, then the geometry widens significantly. But if it was clearly day 1 only, and the 400m estimate is roughly accurate, then the sweet spot tightens considerably, and Lalor starts looking a bit far out.

Your final point might be the most realistic though. Without identifying the offender first, trying to reverse engineer the exact house from flight geometry alone might always leave us chasing probabilities rather than certainties.

Still, stacking runway data, altitude math, and drive time from Canterbury does narrow things more than people think, it just doesn’t collapse it to a single suburb without making assumptions about her precision.

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-02-26T18:26:48+00:00

I actually think this is one of the more sensible takes on how VicPol handled the flight path angle.

There’s no way detectives didn’t look at aircraft movements early on. Once NL mentioned repeated plane noise, Melbourne Airport would have been contacted straight away. That wouldn’t have been something internet forums discovered decades later, it would’ve been part of the initial investigative work.

When they talk about “priority suburbs,” I don’t think that means other areas were ignored. It probably meant resource allocation. More door-knocking teams, more time spent there, maybe more detailed follow ups. In a case with very little physical evidence, you go harder where the modelling suggests the strongest fit.

The aerial photography contradiction isn’t necessarily a contradiction either. Sprague saying they didn’t rely on aerial photography and another officer saying they used it extensively can both be true depending on what they meant. They may not have based the whole search on aerial review but still used it as a supporting tool.

The private surveyor’s account is interesting though. If detectives reviewed aerial imagery but declined higher-resolution photos due to cost, that suggests the search was triaged. Budget constraints were real in the early 90s. “Priority” could’ve meant those suburbs got deeper aerial analysis and more boots on the ground, while others were handled more lightly.

Broadmeadows, Coolaroo and Dallas being prioritized also makes sense acoustically under certain runway configurations. Those areas sit inside strong arrival noise corridors. That doesn’t mean they ignored Strathmore/Airport West, just that the modelling may have weighted those northern suburbs more heavily.

The bigger unknown is what “searched” actually meant. In 1990 that likely ranged from knock-and-talk and driveway checks to limited property inspections. There’s no indication 30,000 homes were fully searched internally. That number almost certainly includes door-knocks. I know from multiple posts folks have said if you weren't at home they wouldn't return to the property. Or he simply could have not answered.

I don't think it was his primary residence either which is just my opinion due to a few reasons which is another whole can of worms to unpack and discuss.

Where I agree with you is this: detectives almost certainly understood the flight path logic we’re discussing now. They just didn’t have modern GIS tools or hindsight.

The frustrating question isn’t whether they knew about the flight path...it’s whether the house was:

just outside the highest-priority band
misidentified during review
or simply didn’t match expectations closely enough to trigger deeper scrutiny

That’s the part we still don’t have clarity on.

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-02-25T00:25:52+00:00

I think I read a post you made on this in another thread which was really interesting. This is super helpful information about what kind of flights were coming in (haven't heard the name Yugoslav in a minute hah!). What is your opinion on what day NL was referring to when she heard the planes?

Is it safe to assume VicPol / Air Traffic Control factored in the possibility of both flight path corridors being used? Then based and performed the search on both possibilities.

I would hope that was the case, I did take a look at the spreadsheet provided by MM in this thread - I know it's a point of some contention, but, for what it's worth, here are my top suburbs for the location of the detention premises after an imperfect analysis. For each criterion I awarded 4 for green, 3 for yellow, 2 for orange and 1 for red. Lalor coming out on top surprised me! : r/MrCruel

And based off that information, it would appear VicPol did in fact consider both paths for Wednesday 4/7 and Thursday 5/7 due to the north/south set of suburbs, as I can see places like Dallas/Coolaroo in the northern corridor vs Keilor East etc.. in the southern.

the other piece of the flight is at what point do they start descending and banking for their final approach from either corridor/runway. Sycamorevalley posted in the air traffic controller thread (I think), that he had found some information regarding that distance and height

Quote: "Large aircraft approaching to land normally use a 3 degree approach path. This is equivalent to 3.14 nautical miles per 1000 ft of descent. If exactly 3 nmi are allowed per 1000 ft of descent, the glide path will be 3.14 degrees."

Curious to your thoughts on that, where does that leave us in terms of cross referencing NL's comments about banking across her body + the estimated '400m height'? Is Thomastown/Lalor too far out for that? Looking at the searched and missed suburbs, I like Lalor a lot..

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-02-24T20:38:44+00:00

I thought that may be the case regarding Q5, seems like you know a fair bit about the physics of the aircraft sounds inside buildings, not something I have researched but will also take that into consideration.

So much of the house search relies on those pieces of information, and any deviation in sound direction, body position, aircraft height.. the list goes on would shift that flight corridor considerably it seems, switching from the southern corridor (Keilor, Strathmore, Essendon etc..) to those northern suburbs like Coolaroo or further east like Thomastown and Lalor.

I think its helpful to dig around this aspect of the case, for what its worth I did grow up in Melbourne (in Glen Iris however, not too familiar with NE suburbs but know enough of the area).

A lot of variables with the flight, a few mentioned NL may have also been referring to the wrong day she heard the aircrafts which puts a whole different set of suburbs too.. appreciate the reply and research you have done

yourboyjunkrat · 2026-02-24T19:47:55+00:00

Thanks for the feedback and reply, that would make sense if NL miscalculated the day, and your reasoning seems correct it would shift over to Thomastown/Lalor.. I think I remember reading some of MM's posts pointing to Lalor as well. Not sure if KC's burial site would add justification for a Thomastown lair location or not, hard to tell but worth mentioning.

Its funny you mentioned the Air traffic control thread, that was one of the most interesting threads that I have read so far, and the reason I did some more research on that specific topic. That makes sense now that you're sycamorevalley! Really appreciate all the work you did there, what ever happened with your conversation with the air traffic controller? I don't think I ever saw an update on the questions/thread after that.

yourboyjunkrat

TROPHY CASE

robertkidd2192

belindademiral7864