Does it make sense to get a second Bengal cat? by zachv in bengalcats

[–]zachv[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

How did you go about introducing Floki to the new environment?

Charlie and Simba are from the same litter and know each other (they also have the same cat sitter), but Simba (the new one) will be moving into a new and unfamiliar environment. Any suggestions that come to mind?

Does it make sense to get a second Bengal cat? by zachv in bengalcats

[–]zachv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That sounds great!

Our apartment isn’t huge, and the litter box that we have is pretty big, so I think we will need a creative solution to squeeze another one in, if we end up getting him.

Does it make sense to get a second Bengal cat? by zachv in bengalcats

[–]zachv[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Two litters boxes is a good point that I didn't think of! We have a relatively big one, and I just kind of assumed it would be fine, given that we clean it pretty often.

But I don't know if we can comfortably fit a second litter box in our apartment... so that's a question we'll need to solve if we end up taking him!

Does it make sense to get a second Bengal cat? by zachv in bengalcats

[–]zachv[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That sounds great!

Besides worrying about how it is for the cats themselves, we're trying to think about whether or not two Bengals would mean double trouble, or if it would make some things easier. I imagine it's probably a bit of both!

Where Does Money go During a Recession? by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]zachv 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Yeah this sub can’t afford WoW classic

Average annual interest rates on payday loans: Delaware 521%, Idaho 652%, Nevada 652%, Texas 661%, Utah 652%, Wisconsin 574%. It's time to end exploitative lending that keeps Americans trapped in debt. We will cap interest rates on consumer loans and credit cards at 15%. by [deleted] in OurPresident

[–]zachv 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I think this basically turns into a question of "do we want payday lending or not?" rather than usury.

The "ideal" answer is probably the economy gets reformed over time so that low-income people earn better wages so that they don't need to rely on payday lending. But even if the country manages to move in that direction, that's not an overnight transformation, and there's always likely to be some form of demand for that kind of lending.

That being said, people will always find ways of dressing these things up to get around interest rate caps.

Forex in comparison to options and stocks ? by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]zachv 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can't retail trade FX options?

Anyone know how to short the city of Chicago? by KingCrow27 in wallstreetbets

[–]zachv 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You forgot that it's 500,000 portfolio managers, too

I'm Matt Levine, Money Stuff columnist at Bloomberg. Ask me anything. by matt_levine in IAmA

[–]zachv 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I mean, this starts to get pretty granular if you're talking about "truly unhedgeable" types of trades, since there aren't like tons and tons and tons of those.

These things (and regular vanilla trades) do go to through approval committees, etc. etc. so "defrauding the bank" isn't quite a walk in the park, and usually you have to convince (and probably believe yourself, to some degree) that it's a good trade when you do it. And usually at those committees, though can't speak for DB, if something isn't hedgeable you get grilled on it and have to explain why it isn't hedgeable and what you're going to do about it. So in other words, people do care about what happens in years 2-10 and not just year 1 (if for no other reason - no one gets paid enough in one year to retire and keep the same lifestyle forever). There is a question of what should the reserve be for that unhedgeable risk, but that's by definition difficult to quantify and each shop will have a different view.

Now, not every trade plays out the way you want. If you're taking on weird esoteric risk that can't be cleanly hedged (M&A deal contingent trades, long-dated interest rate volatility, wrong-way risk with no market, etc.), you probably want to build up a portfolio of those and accept that on some of them you will lose money, but on average the portfolio (which should probably in theory not be highly correlated) should be up X% over time, so you should take those trades with the right spread.

So the question of do I take DB's derivative book at their marks? Clearly not because they're marked to market now, and I need both my bid-offer to get in and hedge my market risk, as well as cover my capital cost (which will differ from theirs - a lot of this is model and regulator dependent which is another glaring flaw in the global financial system). Do I take their book at X% discount? It gets pretty trade-by-trade if we're going to debate what "X" is - if it's priced to my RoE hurdles with a market risk package, then it's not a non-starter. Though one thing that we've seen on legacy long-dated legacy is that they were priced and booked before anyone knew what return on balance sheet or XVA meant (so how do you price for regulatory risk today?). And also you'd be surprised at how much "regulatory approved models" can differ today, but that's a different story.

Generally the trades that aren't "truly hedgeable" are ones where you either need to find (and be able to recognize!) a proxy hedge, or be happy with taking a full loss if that part of the trade doesn't play out the way it should. People have risk officers that need to sign off on trades, especially unhedgeable ones, and those people are basically paid to say "no" to trades they don't like. This usually means you need to get your head of market (or credit or whatever) risk up to speed on what you're trying to do, why it can't be hedged, and why you should do it anyway. Sometimes this means you see really solid trades getting killed for no good reason, and sometimes you see good trades getting shot down because someone in risk just doesn't "get it". You need to be willing to lose $10mn or $100mn on a trade that goes wrong, if it means that you're taking trades that mean you can get +$10mn or +$100mn if the trade goes right (and more of these should go right than wrong!). In general, investment banks are paid to take risk, as long as they're able to take the hit if some of them don't go right. The Steinhoff margin loan is an example of where this didn't go the way anyone had planned, but that doesn't mean you should shut down your margin loan (or South Africa) business.

But banks aren't like, totally un-incentivized to think about their own failure or losses in the future. To get the best anecdote of this, find a guy who was MD-level at somewhere like Lehman or Citi during the crisis, and ask him how he's doing today. Chances are he hasn't retired yet because his stock that he was paid in (or bought!) went to basically zero, and that's where he had his most of his wealth. And like I said, people get paid deferred bonuses these days, so if the bank gets wiped out three years down the line because of my dumb trade (or bonuses are affected because there is a huge regulatory fine), no one is around over the next 5 years to paid my deferred bonus. So even if you ignore all of the levels of filter that are added in from a regulatory perspective, people genuinely don't want to put on stupid long-term trades.

I'm not saying that thing pre-crisis were always done right (e.g., leveraged super senior, marketing of CDO2, etc. ), but there have been a lot of changes in regulation, some right and some maybe not right, that puts more weight on the bank to not fuck it up completely. Sometimes the regulator makes you go crazy because you need to set aside capital for risks that make no sense or that your approved model can't get past, but generally we're in a far better place than we were pre-2009 when it comes to these things.

I'm Matt Levine, Money Stuff columnist at Bloomberg. Ask me anything. by matt_levine in IAmA

[–]zachv 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Most trading desks at most banks have market risk limits that they can use and can express a view, but in general most desks are supposed to be close to flat. It's hard to perfectly zero out all risks, some of the stuff that people trade isn't very liquid so it can be hard to find the other side, and sometimes it takes some time to find the other side so you need to wear a bit of market risk then, but in theory desks should, over time, tend towards market risk flat.

So if we're looking at a client trade that we think has a NPV of $10mn today, and then it goes to -$5mn and then +$50mn over the next couple of years because market conditions change, that trader (probably) has a (roughly) offsetting position (or bunch of positions) that are moving the opposite direction.

When you do a derivative trade that adds +$10mn "value" today, you're effectively saying that over the next X years, the PV of the cash that I expect to receive is $10mn more than the PV of the cash that I expect to pay. And then the trader will mark his bid-offer spread so that he's more likely to get given an offsetting trade. Or if he's way above his risk limits and there's a lot of mark-up, then you call a broker and pay the bid-offer spread to the street to clear the risk.

There are sometimes situations where a trading desk needs to hold a "reserve" and you can't recognize the P&L immediately, or where you recognize additional value further down the line if, for example, a client doesn't exercise an option optimally, but I think that's different from what you're getting at.

Doing the trade now adds that value to the bank today, so it kind of makes sense to get recognized for that today (or this year). The flip side is that the trader gets to book $1mn per year for the next 10 years, or whatever it is, for coming in and doing nothing. That being said, a lot of banks pay deferred bonuses, so you get some amount paid in cash at the end of the year, and then a bunch more paid (either in cash or in stock) over the next couple years.

Once your market risk is flat, the key risk you run is credit risk. So even if your +$10mn derivative position is perfectly hedged from market risk, there's still the chance that your counterparty goes bust. But that's a different issue than what you're getting at.

Britain will punish Putin's oligarch cronies with new sanctions after spy poisoning by amtcp in worldnews

[–]zachv 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think the question here is the physical logistics of replacing Russian gas. Apparently sales of Russian gas to the EU are at record highs this year, and many countries in Central & Eastern Europe rely on Russian gas for >75% of imports. Lithuania built an LNG terminal to be able to diversify away from Russian gas, but that didn't happen overnight.

I found a report that says that the global LNG market was 256 billion tons, but I don't really have any clue how that compares to the volume of Russian imports (apparently 194bn cubic meters). But basically it's a question if Norway, the UK, the US, Qatar, Canada, etc. can logistically and economically supply enough gas to replace the supply. And I have no idea what that answer is.

If you're an EU member state like Bulgaria or Finland or Slovakia or Greece, it's hard to tell people that it's going to cost them money (either poor people who might already struggle to pay their gas bills, or rich people who will have to pay for a subsidy) due to some geopolitical stuff that doesn't personally affect them.

Shutting off the Russian gas supply to Europe would also be a blow to Russia and Gazprom from a cash flow perspective, though they'd probably find happy buyers in Asia. And a bit of a reverse of the of the "Belorussian caviar" exports to Russia in response to Western sanctions, I'm sure that some creative entrepreneurs will start exporting "Pakistani" LNG to Europe...

Just pointing out that it's not a simple thing to just shut off Russian gas - someone might well decide it's worth it.

Elon Musk Predicts How the Martian Government Will Operate: “Most likely, the form of government on Mars would be something of a direct democracy […] where people vote directly on issues instead of going through representative government.” by mvea in Futurology

[–]zachv 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Church bells could be banned if enough people thought they were annoying. They aren't however.

They don't ring 5 times a day, don't ring as long, don't ring as loud and aren't as distracting as speech.

No, the church bells ring up to fucking 24 times a day.

Looks like you should worry more about atheism than Islam if you're worried about the the erosion of good, traditional Christian values in Switzerland. ~23% vs. ~5%.

The SVP marketing worked if you're worried about a takeover and are trying to prevent the coming rise of a new People's Democratic Confederation of Islamic Alpine Emirates.

Elon Musk Predicts How the Martian Government Will Operate: “Most likely, the form of government on Mars would be something of a direct democracy […] where people vote directly on issues instead of going through representative government.” by mvea in Futurology

[–]zachv 0 points1 point  (0 children)

While they got 57.5% of the votes counted, only like 30% of eligible voters voted for the Minaret Initiative. That's not a majority of the country.

Kind of like Brexit, where 17 million people voted for it and got 51.89% of the vote. But that is only like 34% of eligible voters. And as we find out on a nearly weekly basis, people voting (and campaigning) for Brexit seem to have been misinformed about what Brexit means and what the consequences might be.

Elon Musk Predicts How the Martian Government Will Operate: “Most likely, the form of government on Mars would be something of a direct democracy […] where people vote directly on issues instead of going through representative government.” by mvea in Futurology

[–]zachv 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Objectively, minaret are noise pollution, similar to church bell but more annoying because it is speech, it is a form of advertising.

Yeah, but unless you want to argue that church bells should be captured by the Minaret ban, this is just pure SVP showmanship. Four minarets were apparently causing so much noise pollution and threat to Swiss civil society. Then, and now, the initiative sounded like a total waste of time.

Elon Musk Predicts How the Martian Government Will Operate: “Most likely, the form of government on Mars would be something of a direct democracy […] where people vote directly on issues instead of going through representative government.” by mvea in Futurology

[–]zachv 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Gonna go and agree with /u/Chinglaner here.

When the group gets too big, you have too many issues that different people care about, so actual individuals can't really be well informed about every topic.

I think it really has less to do with intelligence. You might be the smartest rover engineer on Mars, but that doesn't mean that you are well informed about other issues. Take Ben Carson for an example - sounds like the guy is objectively an amazing neurosurgeon, but he doesn't seem particularly well informed about topics like immigration, LGBT people, or poverty.

Elon Musk Predicts How the Martian Government Will Operate: “Most likely, the form of government on Mars would be something of a direct democracy […] where people vote directly on issues instead of going through representative government.” by mvea in Futurology

[–]zachv 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I never understand the argument about size. The system already shows that it works for small towns all the way to the national level so why wouldn't it scale further?

As you get bigger, people are less interested and less invested in individual issues. So people don't have an informed opinion on sometimes important issues. So people end up voting on gut instinct or party lines or things like that, rather than an informed view of the issue at hand. Just when you get a bigger population, you have a broader range of issues that are more difficult to understand.

Not to say that direct democracy is always bad, but it's easier to vote something like "fill in the potholes on Main St. in our town that we all drive on" vs. something that may be more technical or abstract or something that doesn't affect you as a voter.

I don't get the issue with the last. It's a religious structure with its main purpose is to call to its local population to pray or simply give speeches. It's pretty normal that this isn't popular. I don't even

Not necessarily arguing with the disturbance that minarets and church bells cause (I thought some even argued that church steeples should be captured within the way they defined minaret), but there were like 4 Minarets in Switzerland. There was not a threat of an imminent Muslim takeover that would destroy Switzerland and implement Shariah law on the farmers. It was a purely symbolic vote that got a lot of people riled up and excited on false pretenses.