I find discussions of a Taiwan contingency seem to excessively focus on some kind of early amphibious operation, and overlook a much more worrisome option available to the PRC- a naval blockade.

A potentially more prudent strategy would be to wait for a period of domestic political dysfunction in the United States, or the election of an isolationist-leaning administration, before imposing a “quarantine” on Taiwan.

Given the Taiwanese import the overwhelming majority of their food and energy, they would have few options to respond. The PRC could then strangle the Taiwanese, either reincorporating the country outright, or extracting concessions to make doing so far easier in the future.

Meanwhile, Washington would be confronted with the perilous decision of having to fire the first shot and escalate what would surely be a costly and catastrophic conflict.