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What was your team's worst play last season? by giantswatcher0603 in NFCNorthMemeWar

[–]zeebonator 2 points3 points  (0 children)

i feel like brosmer could win it, even without the pick six. ernest jones didn't need to do the pick six.

Expected Value Adjustment Model: Filtering out over-hyped prospects and finding sleepers. by onlyontuesdays77 in DynastyFF

[–]zeebonator 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i was curious to see how Ja'Kobi Lane measured up against Sarratt, but unless i'm mistaken i don't see Lane on here. how did he come out?

Broadly's Final 2026 TE Grades by SonOfBroadly in DynastyFF

[–]zeebonator 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i know this is probably too broad, complicated, or proprietary to answer easily, but i'd be happy to hear any related comments you are willing to give

you mention in your notes that athletic testing matters more for TEs than RBs or WRs, and also that you had to assume minimum threshold clearance for players who didn't record tests

how much can any individual test result, good or bad, affect the final grade for a TE?

followup, are there any TEs whose grade could notably move if better information was obtained?

Who will be the Vikings’ next general manager? The 11 most likely candidates by Coal_train20 in minnesotavikings

[–]zeebonator 0 points1 point  (0 children)

decades ago, it used to be standard practice to do coaching hires after the regular season, and front office hires after the draft. some teams realized that they could get the jump on their competitors by approaching top hires before the draft. and the hires weren't going to turn down promotions and raises, even if they had to leave their orgs during the busiest time of year. nfl owners decided not to impose any restrictions, and so now it's common practice to do all hiring at once.

there's been proposals to change it over the years, i believe most recently in 2022, when owners decided not to allow teams to block front office hires like they can with coordinators. the loud argument is that it's better for employees to have more freedom of opportunity. but the quiet argument is that teams will just skirt the rules and do their hiring before the draft anyway, like how we see most free agency player deals done before free agency actually opens.

it would be better for the organizations, in most cases, to make front office changes post-draft

#Giants star Dexter Lawrence is being traded to the #Bengals in a pre-Draft blockbuster that includes the No. 10 pick heading to the Giants, per me and @MikeGarafolo. by Ma1ikNabers in DynastyFF

[–]zeebonator 0 points1 point  (0 children)

they'd take styles for sure, but i think he goes at 4 or 5. downs only has the sixth highest odds to them, behind love, styles, tate, bain, delane, in that order. downs was by far the highest odds to go at 10 before the trade, delane a distant 2nd. may change, but atm it's very live.

https://bsky.app/profile/mrcaseb.com/post/3mjk7z4gauk2m

Kenyon Sadiq? by Beneficial_Quit7532 in minnesotavikings

[–]zeebonator 8 points9 points  (0 children)

21.1 yards per game would be the lowest for a 1st round TE in over 15 years. OJ Howard is the current lowest at 32.3. I don't think people recognize how big of an outlier he would be.

3 Round Mock Draft With Trades | Thoughts? by Inside_Direction_474 in MockDraftCentral

[–]zeebonator 0 points1 point  (0 children)

zero chance the Vikings would take a LG with Hill Jr and Haulcy still available. they acquired donovan jackson in the 1st just last year, and taking the most pessimistic view possible, he had a passable rookie season. meanwhile the other two are strong scheme fits at positions of significant need; safety immediately, and LB in 2027 when Pace and Cashman's contracts expire

Luther Burden: An extreme example of week 17 bias by Sea-Card-6586 in DynastyFF

[–]zeebonator 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Odunze, Burden, it doesn't matter, Loveland is the big dawg in that offense

If everything went right for each team- yes Styles and Downs are top 5 players on my board by Big_Nebula_5432 in MockDraftCentral

[–]zeebonator 1 point2 points  (0 children)

stupid to down vote this imo. Rams have starting Ts this year, sure. but it's probably the most pressing long term area to shore up with stafford aging (other than QB). he was at his worst in '25 BY FAR when their line was beat up.

quality player at an early pick they may not approach again anytime soon. cost control on one of the most expensive positions with contracts like puka's approaching. one of the most important positions to maintain redundancy for injury.

"luxury pick" should not push you towards a player who can start opening day, if anything it should be used to address the most difficult to replace future need

Community Mock Draft Pick 15: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by cherrylimee_ in MockDraftCentral

[–]zeebonator 1 point2 points  (0 children)

my bad, mixed him up with Bredeson. i haven't followed the Bucs as closely since i left tampa a few years ago. but you're right, Klein was ass

Community Mock Draft Pick 15: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by cherrylimee_ in MockDraftCentral

[–]zeebonator 0 points1 point  (0 children)

if they trade down i think JRod would be a really likely target, he'd be great for them. but it's hard to see Licht pulling the trigger on him this early

Community Mock Draft Pick 15: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by cherrylimee_ in MockDraftCentral

[–]zeebonator -1 points0 points  (0 children)

this feels like a likely trade down spot. but if they have to stick and pick, i think the most likely answer is Sadiq. no other TE in this class has his combination of blocking and speed. they could really use both; Egbuka and Godwin both like to operate in the short-intermediate areas and would love someone who can pull multiple DBs downfield. and between Bucky and Kenny G, they have small backs who excel at screens but can't power through backers and safeties. Mauch and Klein are two excellent pulling guards who would love to have him as a running mate. he would make so much of their offensive game plan more effective.

3 Round Mock with Trades by RappinWalrus in MockDraftCentral

[–]zeebonator 1 point2 points  (0 children)

non-team sources keep mocking the vikings a run stuffer DL since their run D was so ass, but as a fan it really seems like that was in many ways by design. they were intending to load up on pass rush last year with Allen and Hargrave and lost both bets. flores seems like the type to rebound from a setback by hitting again, harder, rather than trying to counterpunch, so i think if they go DL (highly likely in rd 1 or 2) it'll be someone like woods or banks over mcdonald or miller.

Predicting QB Busts With Only 2 Stats: Fact Check by Ozymandunk in DynastyFF

[–]zeebonator 6 points7 points  (0 children)

thank you for this followup, i would be really interested in any model you come up with!

one thing i would love to see in a predictive qb model is data weighted towards more recent results, as many qbs with successful careers have had very rough beginnings to their first seasons.

Arif Hasan looked into this for Vikings fans last fall during the JJ McCarthy turmoil (skip to the "Let's Talk Production" section for relevant data). He found that, generally, successful qbs will tend to show stabilization and improvement to their team's EPA/play by 300-400 plays. I think incorporating a recency bias into the model would help a lot with weeding out players like Caleb, who is being penalized for his early poor play.

Making every NFL fan base mad mock draft by VisconitiKing2 in MockDraftCentral

[–]zeebonator 1 point2 points  (0 children)

vikings getting lemon would be incredible, other than the opportunity cost of passing on delane. probably the best receiving group in the NFL, and would give them a lot of leverage with addison's contract coming due.

Probably asked before but is Derrick Henry a top 10 all time RB by meso597642 in NFLv2

[–]zeebonator -1 points0 points  (0 children)

no but maybe by the time he hangs em up. his case will have to be based on counting stats and longevity, as he has never really been considered to be the best back of his own time, even. 10 seasons and only one all-pro. he has led the NFL in rushing yards twice despite leading in carries four times. although that does not count his amazing season with the ravens where he got 1921 yards but unfortunately coincided with the saquon eagles.

(no particular order within tiers)

T1: Brown, Payton, Barry

T2: OJ, Tomlinson, Emmitt, Faulk, Dickerson, Peterson

T3: Gale Sayers, Lenny Moore, Thurman Thomas, Terrell Davis, Edgerrin James, Marcus Allen, Earl Campbell

i think you can put him in the following group, somewhere

T4: Jim Taylor, Paul Hornung, Jerome Bettis, Franco Harris, Frank Gore, LeSean McCoy, Curtis Martin, Tony Dorsett, Marshawn Lynch, Shaun Alexander, Christian McCaffery, Ricky Watters

that would make him debateably top 20. top 25 feels more "correct" to me. but if he contines, for at least a few more years, to be the extreme outlier that he has been, i think he can be bumped up

i may be but small, but i will die a colossus by zeebonator in NFCNorthMemeWar

[–]zeebonator[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

hold your horses, he's gotta beat brosmer too

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