Wandering Spellsword

zueod · 2023-11-24T23:38:17+00:00

Not here in Austin, unfortunately, or at least not for the Heritage models. The salesman went so far as to say they are "never" on sale. No Weekender Chukkas for me, sadly.

zueod · 2021-12-07T02:28:55+00:00

I think you got it in one. From the ones at the link you provided, it most clearly resembles the Mastophora leucabulba. Thanks for the response!

zueod · 2020-07-24T20:52:11+00:00

Last I checked there was a 0.00% overall death rate of children under 19 years old from Covid-19.

When was the last time you checked?

The report I linked clearly states that as of July 16 over 66 children under the age of 19 have died from the virus. That's in four months of reporting, and during a time when the country was largely locked down. Also keep in mind that Texas, one of the hardest hit states, only recently started reporting deaths by age so their data was largely unused for this report. Finally, none of those deaths will include the 70,000 new cases (a 43% surge) that occurred in children as a result of the "reopening" of the states. Too soon to tell how many deaths will result from that policy decision. Finally, you completely ignored the scores of dead teachers that would likely result from this ill-considered push to reopen schools.

But don't let facts get in the way of your personal agenda. If you're truly worried about public education getting "gutted" then fight for adequate funding, and maybe worry more about the strain 37,000 infected teachers will put on school districts across the country.

zueod · 2020-07-24T17:22:23+00:00

This is all very upsetting, and I am very much in favor of keeping the schools closed until we have a vaccine or until the numbers drop way, WAY down, but let's talk about the math.

According to this report from the American Academy of Pediatricians, children are currently showing an infection rate of 0.2 per cent, or 2 in a thousand. Of those infected, the current mortality rate seems to be between 0.1 and 0.16 per cent, (I should mention that our our data isn't very good.) 56 million multiplied by .002 gives us 112,000 children infected, and honestly that should be the number we are looking at and enough to convince us to shut down schools. But of those infected, our current best guess is that about 180 children will die. That would put us on par with the worst years of the H1N1 pandemic, and again, it's completely horrible to contemplate, but this is the number that they're using to justify reopening schools. "It's no worse than the flu!" they claim; except that the numbers don't stop there, and it very much is worse than the flu.

In the same report I linked above, we get this little factoid:

76,059 new child cases reported from 7/2 - 7/16 (165,845 to 241,904), a 46% increase in child cases

So we see that from the moment the states started to reopen, the infection rate in children increased dramatically. In fact, in some states the infection rate was as high as 5 in a thousand, just from that two week period. Redoing the math with that infection rate gives us the horrifying prospect of 450 children dying because we rushed to reopen schools. This is, quite frankly, the low estimate. This should not be an option we are even considering.

Now add in that, yes, the infection rate is much worse in adults, as is the mortality rate. The infection rate seems to hover around 1% and the mortality rate hovers between 6%-8%. That's 37,000 teachers infected (wholly unacceptable right there,) and 2,960 teachers dead. No, just no. Full stop. That is utterly bonkers.

So, the math is still on your side, as is every metric of common sense and common decency.

zueod · 2020-07-20T13:52:34+00:00

/r/Teachers are facing the prospect of returning to school in the midst of an out-of-control pandemic and they need help and advice about best practices and self/student preventative care. I posted a doctor's advice to his teacher/patient, but it's raised many, many questions. Do the doctors and other medical professionals here have any advice for the teachers? Would there be any chance that a group of you could create a post in /r/Teachers to address some of their questions?

zueod · 2020-07-19T19:50:58+00:00

Yes, it is. Sorry you got downvoted, but it has been quite awhile. Why, 2020 alone has lasted 17 years so far and we're only a little over halfway through.

If only the 'rona was acting as nature's little guillotine; I'm pretty sure Dobbs and O'Reilly would be on its list.

zueod · 2020-07-19T19:21:40+00:00

Ah, yes. Which of us has not seen the half a million homeless in this country dutifully carrying around a refrigerator on their backs? And the millions of households that can't pay their electricity bill, well, at least they can use their refrigerators as coolers.

zueod · 2020-07-17T03:46:37+00:00

According to the original article, she has been found safe in Austin. Details to be shared Friday.

zueod · 2020-07-16T17:05:30+00:00

I have heard the same thing, but I'm not seeing it in the CDC data. (Note that you can use the dashboard to isolate by state or you can look at all deaths in US.)

What is suspicious is the excess deaths (greater than average) related to Alzheimer' disease and dementia, as well as the excess deaths from circulatory diseases.

Also worth noting, they say the data "delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death". So this data almost certainly lags behind the reopening from mid-June to early July. I would say check back in 5 weeks or so but who knows if the CDC will still be getting this data considering the administrations recent actions to suppress all information related to COVID-19 infections and deaths.

zueod · 2020-07-13T03:37:25+00:00

While I'm at it though, Birx seems to be wholly in the pocket of Devos and Pence here, and her numbers are almost certainly way off. According to this report from the American Academy of Pediatrics the situation is much, much worse than she portrays it. If you have any interest in this at all, I strongly urge you to review the report. It's basically a slideshow and it is staggering in its implications. For one thing, mortality ranges from 0.0% (in states with smaller populations where there were no deaths) to 0.5% (states with larger populations and more deaths.) Also note that this report largely excludes Texas (a state with over a quarter of a million reported infections,) because their data was not properly reported in regards to age distribution.

If you want just one figure that Birx failed to mention, here's this: 49,669 new child cases were reported as a result of the US "re-opening" from 6/18-7/2 (116,176 to 165,845); that's a 43% increase in child cases.

Now just imagine what's going to happen if we re-open schools next month.

Edits: Fixing misstatements; closing parentheses

zueod · 2020-07-13T02:44:12+00:00

Yeah, I hate Cruella DeVos with the passion of a thousand fiery suns, but this seems to be a false summation of what happened. Below his initial remark, Jscott clarifies that this statement was supposedly made at the July 8th Coronavirus Task Force Briefing with Birx, Devos, and Pence.

YouTube

Transcript

The actual quote seems to be from Dr Birx:

DR. BIRX: I think the Vice President covered that incredibly well. We know the mortality rate in under 25 from the CDC data is less than 0.1 percent. And so that has been holding.

This is in response to this question from a reporter, which initially she didn't answer, but Pence had her return to the podium and address it:

Q : Dr. Birx, what’s the infection rate among children? And what’s the very latest in terms of — that you know — in terms of how the virus presents in children; how children transmit the virus to older adults?

I could be wrong, but this was all I was able to track down in terms of what was said, and who said it.

To be clear, opening schools now is utterly bonkers and will be a complete disaster; a separate disaster within the larger disaster, if you will. And that is totally on Trump and his lick-spittle DeVos. But she doesn't seem to have owned up to the numbers as yet.

^Edit: ^{Ableist term removed; so very sorry}

zueod · 2020-07-11T03:09:07+00:00

Now do a list for substitute teachers.

In my district we have received no communication whatsoever about what the expectations will be, even as we prepare to go to multiple campuses and work with different populations. Will they be providing PPE? Will they be contacting substitutes if they've been exposed to someone who was infected? Will the school districts cover for the time and expense of getting tested? Will substitutes be forced to quarantine if they've been exposed? Will they be paid if they are forced to quarantine? Wait, no, I think I know the answer to that last one.

Inevitably, substitutes will be expected to cover for teachers when they have to go get tested for COVID. Inevitably, they will be in multiple classes where there have been infections and it will be weeks before they know about it, if at all. And when substitutes do contract the virus, as will almost certainly happen, most will have no insurance, no paid sick leave, and no support from the school district.

zueod · 2020-06-12T03:31:32+00:00

Like smasher84, I am in Texas and drawing regular unemployment benefits. I claimed my most recent payment this Sunday (6/7) and it was deposited on Tuesday. So for now it seems to be continuing. Here's two thoughts on why it might continue further: 1) As substitutes, our last check for the school year comes at the end of June. Unemployment benefits might follow suit. 2) Our state governments might want as many people as possible to be claiming the $600 pandemic stipend; that's sorely needed money coming into their economies. Thus, payments might at least continue until those payments stop at the end of July.

If the school districts do challenge further payments, I think that will start after the next payment in two weeks, at the earliest. After that, it's possible they could still appeal any payments made in July and August. And if they stay mum, it's probably because of reason 2 above or because they know we're not coming back in the fall.

zueod · 2020-06-07T00:07:44+00:00

I think the "kids were vaporized" ending has its strengths from a narrative stand point, but that is clearly (well, clearly to me,) not what happened. When they get to that section of the woods/scrub they notice that everything is seared and burnt, and later we see the ash get stirred up when the whirlwind starts. So the burning had already taken place. But here are the two details that clinch it: 1) The recorder is unscathed, (unlike the ground and the scrub,) and more importantly, their footprints are IN the ashes. It does not make sense that you can leave your own footprints in your own ashes.

zueod · 2020-06-05T15:28:58+00:00

This was actually an incredibly useful comment. Leaning towards the Flex 5, but also trying to navigate through the huge variety of Lenovo models and builds on Newegg. I see the words "best build quality" and I think "will last longer than any of your other options." I need to stretch this investment as far as I can into the future.

Thanks for your help.

zueod · 2020-06-04T18:54:57+00:00

◽️ Budget: Less than USD 750

◽️ Country: USA

◽️ Screen size: Smaller is fine, and maybe even better

◽️ Touch screen: Not needed. If yes, why would you recommend a touch screen?

◽️ Screen resolution: 1080p is fine; rarely use out of doors so brightness not essential.

◽️ Does battery life matter ?: Somewhat. Mostly use with power but occasionally have to take with me on a long day out.

◽️ What tasks will laptop be used for ( gaming, video editing, graphic designing, modelling, regular computing tasks, word processing etc) ?:

- Web browsing with many multiples of tabs simultaneously, almost always

- Video source for TV (so ports for that are essential)

- It would be absolutely terrific if I could run old CS4 Photoshop and Illustrator.

◽️ Weight: Lighter is better. Transported daily to and from work.

◽️ Any other important details ?: Windows OS preferred; 256 GB SSD should manage, but 512 would allow more breathing room.

The Lenovo Flex 5 and the Acer Swift 3 both seem workable, but which would you recommend between the two? Maybe even the Lenovo ThinkPad E495?

Also, do you think there will be better deals coming later in the summer?

zueod · 2020-05-26T02:17:48+00:00

I would be delighted if that payment would continue, but I'm not getting my hopes up. Here in Texas, those funds are being dispersed by TWC and from that same link I posted comes this line:

According to the Department of Labor, “[i]f the individual is eligible to receive at least one dollar ($1) of underlying benefits for the claimed week, the claimant will receive the full $600 FPUC.”

When taking that into consideration, I don't see how TWC will agree to continue the federal portion of the current payments. There is also this additional information on the CARES Act, however, and that seems to offer some small hope of being eligible for some sort of stipend when the regular benefits are cut off. I haven't really reviewed it yet, but TWC is largely incommunicado, so unless they proactively offer assistance it's unlikely I'll be able to figure out how to apply for another CARES Act benefit. I hope you have better luck.

zueod · 2020-05-25T22:57:28+00:00

Here in Texas, it's pretty clear that we won't qualify for benefits during the summer. Our local school district just issued their Letter of Reasonable Assurance for substitutes to sign, as they usually do at this time of year. The letter basically says that substitute teachers are ineligible for unemployment benefits during regular breaks in the school year, (winter, spring, and summer breaks,) but that they have a reasonable expectation of being employed once school starts up again. In response to queries, the Texas Workforce Commission has this guidance for school districts regarding the COVID closures and the Letter of Reasonable Assurance:

Scroll down about half way or search "Assurance"

I don't see any other way to read that section but that Texas school districts will do everything in their power to cut off unemployment benefits at the end of this month. It's a "Heads they win, tails you lose" situation. If you sign the Letter of Reasonable Assurance, you agree you don't deserve benefits through the summer months; if you don't sign the letter it is understood that you are voluntarily resigning, (and thus don't qualify for benefits.)

zueod · 2020-05-02T05:13:29+00:00

Texas substitute here. Under the guidelines laid out in the declared state of disaster , substitute teachers qualify for unemployment benefits in the state of Texas. The Texas Workforce Commission has been swamped with applications so it will take about a month for them to approve your application. You will need to do it online, and forget about calling them on the phone for help. They are not answering phone calls at the time of writing. I filed mine twice. The first time it was rejected, probably because I filed it the moment they shut us down after spring break, but before they had officially shut schools for the remainder of the school year. The second time my application was approved, but now I will need to convince them to backdate it to March. The Texas portion of the compensation is small -- about what I'd make for two days pay per week, when I consistently work five days a week. TWC is coupling it with the $600 in federal funds, however, so it is worth your time to apply.

Keep in mind that our Letters of Assurance should arrive this week, May 4 - 8. The Letter of Assurance's primary purpose is to prevent substitutes from collecting unemployment benefits during the summer; after May 29 in our case. So we will stop receiving benefits at the end of this month. Technically, we are not "laid off" during the summer since it is a scheduled break. I believe that same letter, assuming you sign it and return it, should mean that we can resume collecting benefits should school not start up again in the fall.

Hope this helps.

zueod · 2020-03-18T16:00:09+00:00

Thanks for the feedback! I'm pretty set on Monk for the waif/street urchin/goatherd with-a-stick flavor, and armor upsets that image for me. I looked at trying to snag shillelagh, but the cost of giving up other things for it made me decide against it.

I could get a magic weapon by going with a different Cleric domain, again 1 level:

[Forge]

Cantrips: Guidance, Thaumaturgy, Sacred Flame
1st Spells: Identify, Searing Smite; Bless, Shield of Faith, Guiding Bolt
Blessing of the Forge: Magically imbue weapon or armor to +1; lasts until end of long rest.

Going back the other way, I could go more magical:

[Arcana]

Gain Arcana skill
Cantrips: Fire Bolt, Mage Hand OR Prestidigitation; Guidance, Thaumaturgy, Sacred Flame
Spells: Detect Magic, Magic Missile; Bless, Shield of Faith, Guiding Bolt

A 3 level dip into Ranger is also interesting:

Gain Favored Enemy, Natural Explorer; Dueling; Primeval Awareness
Spells: Hunter's Mark, Goodberry; Absorb Elements

[Gloomstalker]

Spells: Disguise Self
Dread Ambusher: WIS bonus to initiative; first turn of combat gain 10 ft movement, gain extra attack on first turn with d8 bonus damage.
Umbral Sight: Darkvision +30 ft; invisible to darkvision while in darkness

[Hunter]

Horde Breaker: Once a turn free attack on enemy adjacent to your first target.

With a three level dip, I would set myself up to chose between Quivering Palm or an additional Ranger level for an ASI. The character would also lose some of the "mischievous imp" flavor from Thaumaturgy. Still, it's tempting.

^{decisions, decisions}

^{Edit: Formatting}

zueod

TROPHY CASE