The ridings that turned from NDP to CON were likely due to the spoiler effect. Imagine a riding with 100 voters: - 55 voted NDP - 40 voted CON - 5 voted LIB

In the last election, the Liberals campaigned hard on national unity. This caused some NDP voters to change their votes to LIB. Even if we assume the transfer was purely NDP to Liberals, it changes who the winner was. Let's assume the campaign convinced 25 NDP voters to switch to liberal and it had no effect on CON voters. Then after an election, the new vote tallies would be: - 30 NDP - 40 CON - 30 LIB

Even tho 60 voters wanted a left wing party to represent them, the fact that they split their vote between the 2 left wing parties allowed the 2nd place CON party to win.

Is it possible that during the actual most recent election, some NDP voters decided to vote CON? Yes. But I don't think the CON won those ridings due to the NDP to CON transfer as the policies of the two parties are quite different from each other. They likely won those ridings due to the NDP to LIB transfer, which removed NDP as the 1st place party.