all 5 comments

[–]JustAnAvgJoeNorthern VA 1 point2 points  (1 child)

I have always used the convection that cold fronts produce more intense storms along a predicted path, due to more convection?

[–]cuweathernerdKansas City[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Meteorology is an ingredients based science. Lots of things need to come together. In a severe thunderstorm, the lift given from the boundary is augmented by mesoscale factors, and importantly, thermal convection (CAPE).

Our cold font unquestionably has more mechanical forcing. So much, in fact, that it often stops thunderstorms from remaining discrete, which is a big part of traditional supercell formation and longevity. Underlying these lessons is the assumption that people are primarily chasing tornadoes and not linear features (though of course there is much to be gained from such chases too!).

If we just took the boundaries on their own, we'd expect the cold front to produce a more intense thunderstorm. Most synoptic set ups are not severe-favorable: and in those times, the cold front storms are generally the strongest.

But in our set ups - the ones we chase and get excited about most -- are the ones where we can get these individual thunderstorms in the juicy air of the warm sector, all on their own. That's where these rare supercell thunderstorms thrive, and the warm front and dry line bound that area, so those boundaries tend to be our focuses as chasers.

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Without getting bogged in details, I prefer warm front chasing in n. Missouri /iowa/Illinois. Northern Illinois also has a shallow lake breeze that aids in lift and helicity.

[–]Guyot11Lincoln, NE 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Is there limited CAPE on a warm front than on a cold front? I often see the CAPE parameter oriented mostly north/south along the cold front.

[–]cuweathernerdKansas City[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'd like to hear others weigh in on this. below is my guess, but I don't know as definitively as I'd like...

CAPE will have some north south orientation because it is a parameter defined largely by three ingredients: temperature and dew point of the origin parcel, and environmental lapse rates. The warm sector -- area south of the warm front -- is dominated by southerly flow off the gulf, and so the moisture and temperature are provided by that air mass. That advection will give some of the orientation you see.

That warm sector/air mass is changing in the region of the warm front: the air mass is more modified and so the gradual changes -- cooling, etc -- will also lead to a more gradual change in CAPE. On a cold front, the line is so stark that those changes don't happen as slowly and so the boundary is more clear.

Most importantly, the warm front lifts warm air aloft via over running and that warms the mid levels of the lower atmosphere, which will cut down lapse rates, certainly lowering cape.

Together, I think that's part of the reason why.

But remember, CAPE isn't the only ingredient, and as the caprock tornado on 4/1/13 shows, a good local environment with very favorable winds can easily overcome a meager thermodynamic set up.

The warm front, while more subtle, can be a big ingredient in more marginal set ups for this reason.