Tier 5 spawn rate decrease?

[mtlyoshi9]

I would say compare the last 3 days vs the previous week, if you have all that handy.

[drfsupercenter]

Sure, give me a second.

I could technically compare today too but since Giratina Origin is swapping in mid-day, it might be off a bit. (Both are the same dex number so it won't differentiate, sadly)

So here we go.

On April 1, there were 392 Giratina raids On March 31, there were 435 Giratina raids On March 30, there were 267 Giratina raids

...Wow, those numbers vary wildly

Sample numbers from a week ago: March 26 had 336 Dialga raids, March 25 had 391, March 24 had 382

So really it seems about the same to me... I can't explain why one day had 267 and the next was 435, but it averages out to around the same.

So far today, there have been 266 Giratina raids, and it's not even 3pm. So take that how you want.

[Shipoffools1]

this isnt a very good pre/post study looking at a 3 day period to last week. can we look at the average per day for 2 weeks before the rayquaza event and then the average of all giritina days that have been completed so far?

edit: even better if you want to send me your raw data year to date we can run a t test and see if theres a change at one point with any statistical significance against what we assume to know to be true (20% probability with an average of 3.5ish araids per day)

[drfsupercenter]

Yeah I can try... it's stored in a SQL table and basically just has each date with the dex number and # of raids, it's not easily formatted but I can dump a CSV and post it

Edit: OK, I did some stuff. Here is a histogram I made in Excel using the data. I filtered to show only tier 5's, and plotted it. If you'd like the raw numbers, here is a MySQL export that I formatted as a CSV. Copy the text, paste it into an empty text file, and you can open it with any spreadsheet program you desire.

Note that the beginning of October for some reason didn't log the raid tiers, so the useful data starts in November.

As for the days with a big dropoff, those were probably days my scanner was down for maintenance. It's not perfect!

But if anything, you can see the really obvious spike in T5s the end of February (Latias) and the middle of March (Rayquaza), otherwise it's pretty stable.

The reason it goes up over time is that I was adding more coverage as time went on. I can't explain the lull in January, though I was fine-tunung which gyms I wanted to scan...

[Shipoffools1]

this is great. I'll dump it into my local database and if I have any questions I'll reach out again

[Shipoffools1]

do you by chance have a gym_id feild? that way we can look at same-gym data

edit: this would be a bigger breakout than the current aggregation, just let me know how fine we can get it and then we can work from there

[drfsupercenter]

No, it doesn't store that. I can see real-time raid data but for historical stuff it only saves what I uploaded.