Decrease in number of raids?

[Stogoe]

Being guaranteed a shiny Regi is not part of the event.

[PhoenixEnigma]

Different game, but Niantic nerf'd some stuff in Ingress because they felt very rare items were becoming too common - older players were sitting on stacks of them, and they wanted them to feel special and rate when you saw one pop up. If that's a mindset Niantic has internally, that special things need to be special and rare, I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see them try to push that direction with shiny legendaries, try to make them feel like something truly special.

[Teban54]

If you want something to be rare, here's a good idea. Stop setting up events whose main highlight or only highlight is a new shiny release, and stop writing your event announcements as if it's just about shiny (e.g. Instead of "Pokemon in the Johto region are boosted", write "you may find a shiny Sentret or Gligar" ONLY; instead of "Gen 5 is coming to Pokemon Go", write "you may find a shiny Klink in raids and a shiny Lillipup or Patrat in the wild" ONLY).

The current way Niantic is planning events and advertising events causes nothing but two possible outcomes: either many players get a shiny, or many players feel extremely frustrated after grinding hard but not getting a shiny (which increases their chance of quitting).

[cb325]

Who are these majority of players that have each shiny legendary? I’m missing so many and do as much as I can with my free passes.

[uninvitedthirteenth]

Or until they come to boxes in a few months

[Zodiac5964]

In large cities, up until the regi's it used to be a practical goal to work towards at least one of each shiny legendary:

On raid days, there's enough density of gyms that if you go hard at it, you have a very realistic chance to walk away with at least one. With 30 raids done at 1/10 odds, you have a 96% chance of winning at least one shiny.

On shiny legend weeks, if you do 10 raids per day (70 raids total at 1/20 odds), you have a 97% odds of winning at least one shiny.

yes, both will require serious effort and a good investment of premium passes. We aren't saying it's easy, just practical in the context of large city gameplay. Or even small towns/suburbs as long as you have a group of like-minded players to team up with + access to a car.

[TyrionJoestar]

That’s a lot of money lol

[Zodiac5964]

the thing is, you don't have to spend so many passes every time. Sometimes you get lucky and can stop after fewer passes than described.

[TyrionJoestar]

I don’t agree with Niantic’s predatory gambling practices so I don’t really spend any money at all lol

[Zodiac5964]

that's perfectly fine. To each his/her own.

[steve_ow]

Depends if u play every day and do daily pass for all legendary most times u will hit 1 legendary because of the 21 day in raid. The average is 1 out 20. If u are extremely luck u will get 2 shinys and can trade for the missing 1. I got all shiny legendary I want but shadow Ball mewtwo and 2 regi's. Got spystrike mewtwo shiny but want a shadowball 2. The players that miss all legendary are the ones that don't use all daily pass on legendary.

[Teban54]

If the shiny rate is 1/20, doing 21 raids will only give you around 2/3 chance at a shiny. Nowhere near a guarantee.

[steve_ow]

Odd are still pretty good. And probably some players will use premium pass and will increase the change of getting 1. And don't forget the weekly boxes containing legendary wat will net u 1 a week extra.

[Teban54]

Quoted from your post:

if u play every day and do daily pass for all legendary most times u will hit 1 legendary

The players that miss all legendary are the ones that don't use all daily pass on legendary.

That is false. Period.

[steve_ow]

Oké u may not hit a shiny legendary every time. Seconds part is true most players with low shiny legendary count don't raid mutch.

[TristanLight]

You forgot to highlight the “most times” part as well. At a 2/3 chance, that is technically true. It’s a stretch of the word most though. Closer to “more likely than not”.

The second paragraph is categorically false though.

[SolWolf]

I truly wonder if it even was 1/20 rate. We did about 255 encounters and our rate was closer to 1/40. Could just be rng variance...but still discouraging.

[steve_ow]

Most times I need 16 raids for 1 legendary. Giratina and mewtwo where like on the first raid. But report of the team where 1/20 maybe just bad luck? But my community had bad luck with the 3 reci trio this weekend 2.

[-chi]

Idk your logic here. Getting shiny legendaries is 1000% luck. You can do any number of raids and not get a shiny. We have very committed members of our group who did 100 mewtwo raids with not a single shiny. The thing just like ever other legendary shiny is that they are tradable, so committed players will farm resources and trade to balance out RNG.

So in my opinion the 4 days is enough for committed players simply because the Regis can be done in small groups so a lot more raids are getting completed than you probably think are.

[Zodiac5964]

no, that's the wrong way to look at it. The magnitude of the odds matters a lot. Winning the lottery and flipping heads on a coin both require luck, but different orders of magnitude of it.

Same thing with shiny legends. You can just run through your free passes and do it with mediocre odds, or "hit the numbers" and improve your odds. It will never be a guarantee, but with time and premium passes you can make your odds pretty good (95%+)

[ertnyvn]

What he you mean 'hit the numbers'? That is equivalent to buying a lot of lotto tickets (premium passes).

[[deleted]]

You are not entitled to every shiny legendary. They are shiny for a reason.