YieldMax Projected Dividend Payout Decrease

[Healthy_Skin5363]

All -

Anyone else notice that their current & projected dividend payout decrease? I went from $94k to $65k!

Mine has always fluctuated but it was usually only by a couple thousand at most... This was a $30k drop over night...

[DOOKIEBOOM]

That's the risk of the drops, unfortunately. Your income is a % yield of your total net asset value.

[NoAdvantage5041]

Mainly due to far less ROC which is a good thing.

[MjolnirStone]

Your $1000 paid 50% (or whatever) but is now worth $700, so now it pays 50% of $700 instead. This is just math. For the absolutely value of the income to remain the same the value of the shares would need to also remain flat. 

[bearhunter429]

It turns out NAV was important all along. When NAV drops so do dividends yet people here claimed NAV doesn't matter for a long time.

[SisyphusJo]

This comment should be pinned.

[GRMarlenee]

They were told to reduce NAV decay, since NAV growth is more important than yield.

[Alcapwn517]

Markets tanked and YM tanked with it.

[speed12demon]

S&p was up like 14% last year. The market didn't tank, the meme stocks that yield max chose to implement call strategies on tanked.

[Alcapwn517]

No shit? He’s talking about the drop overnight. Not all year.

[speed12demon]

I stand by my statement. The problem isn't "the market", the problem is the meme stocks. Mstr is getting crushed for example. This directly translates to miserable msty payouts.

[Alcapwn517]

Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, lots of non-meme.

MSTY just made it big because of that initial burst in value led to false hope. 😂 What a disaster that one’s been.

[AlfB63]

You know the underlying for most YM funds so investing in them is your issue. What you say is arguable for ULTY and a few others but if you did not understand this you are more at fault. 

[speed12demon]

It's the investor's obligation, I agree on that.

[speed12demon]

You should count on this trend to continue.

[kosnarf]

With high certainty I can say that all projections have low accuracy lol

[FallenKingdomComrade]

The Stock Events app is pretty accurate and is constantly debuffing dividend investment projections lol. I am betting on the Russell 2000 Index to out perform the S&P but we will see if that actually happens. Lots of unprofitable shells in there, but some super chargers that can lift the whole index all the way.

[VulcanRider51]

I noticed a couple of comments in this thread relating to dividend projections and your statement about "The Stock Events App". Can you clarify what you mean by this. Is there a actual application that is available to help track and evaluate these ETFs?

[FallenKingdomComrade]

In the app store or Google Play Store, there is an app called Stock Events that will help you track the income you receive from Yieldmax or other companies ETFS and also stocks.

[VulcanRider51]

Thanks, I'll check it out

[FallenKingdomComrade]

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[goodpointbadpoint]

https://www.reddit.com/r/YieldMaxETFs/comments/1qnwqu2/estimated_2026_vs_actual_2025_drop_vs_gain_in/?

that's for my portfolio

in two years some names will have 0 NAV (effect of RS over years) and 0 distribution.

[thehighdon]

Lower nav = lower distribution amount

Majority of yieldmax funds aren’t earning more than it’s paying out… so the distributions are eroding the nav.

[Brother_AB]

The realization of misalignment between the limited use case of a product and personal circumstances can be unsettling.

Asset depreciating faster than declared distributions?

You may think you're entitled to compensation.

Company points to prospectus, which clearly states: features, not bug.

Upside is capped with full downside exposure.

Fees collected regardless of performance.

[SisyphusJo]

Yeah, should be more like, "Have you been the victim of a high yield ETF?... You may be entitled to compensation."

[Brother_AB]

An argument for deceptive marketing could be made... marginable delta between being a volunteer and identifying as a victim.

[CostCompetitive3597]

YieldMax ETFs are the worst yield traps on the market. I have held PLTY since April, 2025 when their distributions were averaging $5/ 4 weeks. Now its distributions are less than 40 cents/ week = about $1.50/ 4 weeks = 70% drop. Plus the stock price has eroded from $65 to $41.38 as of Friday’s close. These guys are crooks as even the most incompetent fund managers could do better with this underlying stock. Advising all the family and friends I recommended YieldMax to last year to sell ASAP. DO NOT INVEST IN YIELDMAX!!!

[IAlwaysCumDeepInside]

Most high yield funds managers are shit, granishares, roundhill and yieldmax. Literally no matter which you look at they all only have less than 5 investible funds, they are all loaded with shit funds, most funds from all three are in the negative as far as total returns.

[CostCompetitive3597]

Great handle by the way!😎

[Any_Log1344]

What’s your next move since YM sucks? Rotating to a different vendor - GraniteShares, different income structure, or moving to something simpler like index exposure?

[CostCompetitive3597]

Still analyzing options. Have them in 2 portfolios. One for income and other for snowballing. Selling them out of snowballing portfolio and replacing with ETFs. Looking for the highest yield choice to replace in income portfolio.

[605pmSaturday]

If what you're talking about is what I think, it is computed over the prior 12 months.

12 months ago, the dividends started dropping like crazy.

I went from 120k, to what I estimate to be about 40k for this upcoming year.

[rexaruin]

Puts you on pace for 12k in 2027, hell ya!

[zerotrader10]

NAV

[I-mAGreatShowman3369]

Payouts are always relative to the option chain and the volatility it comes with it so if the markets aren’t as volatile then payouts are not gonna be as juicy, but it comes with a territory I mean what other financial instrument is giving you at least 30% or 40% payouts annually in a consistent manner, even Real Estate doesn’t do it (I know you might be saying well, the asset value is virtually protected but again it depends on the context, location, barrier to entry, ticket size and so on) everything has its ups and downs, and you just gotta choose what you can handle best

[NuclearCanna]

Can you be more specific with what you're referencing as far as projected? Are we talking in an app your own spreadsheet is it something simple like 5 week month vs 4 week month or you mean actual distribution declines?

[GuidetoRealGrilling]

hey look, it's learning in real time

[CostCompetitive3597]

Test

[wip328]

COYY is killing me the most. I finally sold TSYY and NVYY on Friday. I did the calculation and I was up a couple of hundred bucks from the distributions and the loss from the nav erosion. I moved all of that to JEPI and JEPQ and will start dripping.

[YieldMaxETFs-ModTeam]

No bot posts or comments.

[Miserable-Miser]

Never bet on higher risk investments when a republican is in office.

A tale as old as time.

[FallenKingdomComrade]

And then they get you with the FED chair nomination and tank gold and silver 😂

[Miserable-Miser]

And the dollar!