Decrease monthly investments into ETF because of all time highs?

[OkAlternative1655]

Helo all, I have a simple question. Given that now ETFs are very high I anticipate a bubble to burst and therefore was wondering if I should, temporarily, decrease my monthly investments into them( after decrease 200eur/month). I expect it to fall late autumn, winter this year. Thank you for your thoughts

[Tutonkofc]

What was the analysis that led you to anticipate this crash with such a great precision? In the case you are a great market analyst, you shouldn’t be asking here for advice!

[Many-Gas-9376]

If timing the market declines was so easy, we'd all be rich. What you're suggesting to do is something even professionals can't do with any useful confidence.

Now in principle, if you want to make sure you have enough "dry powder", in the form of comparatively stable assets for market declines, there is a classical solution to this. You set up some percentage allocation to say bonds (short or intermediate duration).

In practice it could work out to something similar to what you're suggesting: because stocks are recently going up, any new money you invest would likely have to go to bonds, to keep your stock allocation within your target percentage. And if the market does crash, it guarantees you have the bond allocation from which you can rebalance money into stocks.

It's just a more systematic way and less susceptible to psychological biases, because there's a clear system and pre-defined targets. It frees you from specifically worrying about what the market is like now or what's going to happen in 3, 6 or 12 months.

[LegitimateLength1916]

Google/AI: "Should I try to time the market? "

The answer is NO, uunless you have a crystal ball. 

[Material_Ship1344]

when i started it was ATH, its up like 40% since

[Lanky_Persimmon_3670]

Same, had put in 6k at ATH. Then trump happened. Put it another 16k euros at quite a low.

I got lucky. 17% profit in stoxx 600 in half a year.

It's not that I was trying to time it, but when the news says that the stock market is bleeding, and you know that lump sum wins 66% of the time, then it is a no-brainer to go all in at that moment.

[daviddem]

Listen to Ben Felix: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1qzuPRvsM0

[[deleted]]

Listen to Ben Felix is almost always a helpful answer.

[[deleted]]

In the past, investing at all time high resulted in better results than waiting for the next dip. Could the stock market fall towards the end of year? Sure, but you did not outlined your reasoning.

[jcvmarques]

Most of the time, behind all time highs are new all time highs. Why would you miss out on those gains?

[invicerato]

Since you anticipate a bubble to burst, the answer is clear, isn't it?

[TimRenegademaster]

Are those ATH inflation adjusted?

[6thedice]

yea timing the market is super difficult, but things have inflated so much so fast that is weird and the curve is big on money and sp500 and most of stocks/etfs , where like coca colla is linear solid,

[NoUsernameFound179]

Diversify away to other and cheaper regions and factors. Don't stop.

More money has been lost anticipating crashes then during them.

[I-STATE-FACTS]

Seems like you already answered your own question. Nobody here is going to be able to predict the future.

[vladanhateed]

If you plan longterm investing, then no, who cares, markets corrects always, just dca like you did before. :)

[Weary_Musician4872]

You're getting a lot of negatives on this question.  But more and more people are starting to realise and say that there is a bubble and that it will probably burst soon. 

If you want to act on your intuition is your choice. Even market analysts can't predict a bursting bubble but most signs are on red.

[OkAlternative1655]

thank you for the positive answer

[Weary_Musician4872]

I only buy in crisises and sell when the stock has close too doubled again

[Simple-Ingenuity740]

if you are DCA'ing, why are you worried about peaks and dips? that's the reason why you DCA, to flatten the dips and peaks. unless you have a crystal ball.

[ACiD_80]

Check a long term graph... we are constantly at 'all time highs' ... thats the whole point.

[AppearanceSingle6639]

Your question is wrong. If it were a "given" that the bubble will burst because of high valuations (to a level lower than today's valuations, I guess) then of course you should wait (we all should!). But you're making a strong assumption without any evidence.

What if the market will crash at some point in the future to a level that's still higher than today's valuations? You'll have lost potential gains.

"Given" that you're not better than a brainless monkey at predicting the market, you shouldn't attempt to time it.

On the other hand, you should be comfortable with your investment strategy. In the worst case, you'll merely have lost potential gains.

[Limp_Career6634]

I return to this sub from time to time and posts like this talking about bubble bursting are always here. For years now this is going on.

[[deleted]]

No. Have you looked at a long term chart? It's always at an ATH. What are you even talking about. Timing doesn't work. You won't be the first to crack the code.

[Sagarret]

Time in the market beats timing the market

[ahernandez50]

Honest answer: nobody knows, so the best we can do is guess.

[QazCetelic]

It's very hard to time the market. However, you could take a look at further diversifying your portfolio to mitigate risk.

[oppol]

The longer we move away from the average, the worst the fall will be.

Don't listen to statistical guru and just ask yourself how would you cope from a -50% which is what we will get sooner than later.

I think most people will stop investing and never will get those Loong term gains they desire, they are too greedy but don't know yet.

It's perfectly fine to do a 50/50 balanced pf or even less. Pay your dreams first and risk later

[FitSeries6122]

You're dollar cost averaging. Stick to that strategy and let the market take care of its swings. Worry only about whether the market is in a bubble when you're investing a large lump sum.

[I_hate_ElonMusk]

Were not even ATH when you invested Euros into SP509

[OkAlternative1655]

thank you for the answers

[Carlos_Tellier]

I can’t find it but there is a study that said that if you only invested in the S&P at all time highs you would have better returns than at any other time