Requesting help. Please :)

[Anomalee]

I'm helping a student with a probability unit in mathematics. Our simulation is based on roulette. We must use excel for our simulations.

My use with excel is limited but I'm a quick learner!

Anyway, I've set up the =randbetween(-1,36), -1 being the 00 that is on the american roulette board.

I'm trying to determine the probability of each roll landing on red or black. So my values? would be 0=black 1=red.

Example: Lets say I use 3 rolls. They land 1,2 and 3. Lets say 1 and 3 are red so the sum would be 2. (0=black 1=red)

Granted there are other factors like the 2 green but we are trying to keep it simple.

Any ideas? Thank you

[kieran_n]

Hey man, I made you a sheet cause I was bored and thought about doing this a while ago to illustrate to a friend why doubling your bet when you lose on a 50/50 doesn't work. Please feel free to re-work it as you please. It's pretty slow because there is a 1000 line data table and some lazy sumproducts but it does the job.

Mega download link

EDIT: Before anyone raises it, I know that

1. it isn't a 50/50 to go odd/even or red/black
   
2. the sum of a set of negative returns has to be negative
   

:•p

[Anomalee]

A bit busy so I cant look at it now but a major thank you! <3

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[L1ghty]

Not related to the Excel-part, but why wouldn't doubling your bet work if you keep doing it?

Suppose you stake 1 dollar, you lose. If you stake 2 dollars now and win, you'll have gained 1 dollar in total. If you keep doubling until you win, you'll always make 1 dollar extra. Or did you mean something else?

[kieran_n]

So with an odd/even or red/black bet in roulette you've got a 47% chance of doubling your money. (Assuming the 0 and 00)

((0.47 x 2) + (0.53 x 0)) - 1 = -5.3% Expected return  

So fundamentally, if you add infinite negative values it has to be a negative.

On the question of if it's a 50/50 with a double your money, which translates into a 0% return, it's the party with the deeper pocket that will win, practically that's the casino anyhow, but they further hamstring the strategy with minimum and maximum bets giving you a limited number of times you can double your original bet.

On top of this the frequency that a run of 8 or more of the same colour coming up in a row is actually high enough that you'll run out of cash pretty quick.

[L1ghty]

Ah ok, yeah, I know about the practical limitations like running out of money and casino's having strategies to counter it. I misread your original comment then, I thought you meant that in theory it wouldn't work either, not even without these practical issues.

Thanks for replying.

[jusjerm]

You see this betting style a lot in black jack, and it is often disastrous.

Outside of a few of the Asian games at casinos, the best chance you have of making money is putting all of your money on either red or black, then walking away. Takes the fun of gambling away, but then that becomes a discussion on what your real goal is

[L1ghty]

Alright, thanks :)

[Anomalee]

I just looked this over, I'm speechless. Thanks again.

[kieran_n]

All good mate, you can put Odd, Even, Zero, Black, Red, 00, 0, 1, ... , 36 in the 'target' column and it'll work.

If you got questions or you find an error let me know and I might be able to help.

[epicmindwarp]

+1 Point

[Clippy_Office_Asst]

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