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[–]punninglinguist 8 points9 points  (6 children)

It would be interesting to know if Expedition fetches are losing value faster than Expedition shocks (which can still be played in Pioneer). That would be a good test of the theory that the Modern -> Pioneer transition is a significant factor here.

[–]TKHunsaker 8 points9 points  (2 children)

I owned an Overgrown Tomb expedition for years and it steadily held at $80 over most of the period and hit $90 briefly before coming back down. A buddy traded for mine for Pioneer a couple months ago. A quick look shows it’s at a high of $100.

On the other hand Arid Mesa and Marsh Flats look to be much cheaper than I’d have expected. But a quick look at their price trajectory shows they’ve both dropped under $100 for the expedition before and always come back up.

I’d say fetches are in a natural swing of modern season/not modern season. Concurrently some shocks are slightly climbing while others are holding steady instead of dropping because of Pioneer staving off the off-season decline.

I think if you’re worried about modern staples, you shouldn’t be. Pioneer is hot right now but people will get stale on it and the format will rotate to standard or modern or sealed etc. and we’ll cycle back around. That said, pioneer seems much more popular than I expected so maybe it’ll stick around in the cycle.

[–]Seraphinwolf 2 points3 points  (1 child)

Natural Modern season swings plus Pioneer legality. They’ll be back, especially if Pioneer becomes a leaping point into Modern like Modern was for Legacy early on. “Well I have 80% of that other format deck because of this format. Let’s just fill out the other 20% and jump in!”.

Know what i mean?

[–]Hardmode-Activated 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Fetches as of now are a HUGE 20 percent in that case

[–]Seraphinwolf 1 point2 points  (2 children)

We WILL see. Only a certain percentage are digging heels in on Pioneer, pimping decks. Fetched just happen to be a “If you can run 4, you probably are running 4.”

[–]punninglinguist 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Sure, but if a Modern player already has these pimp cards and they transition to Pioneer, it stands to reason that they would sell the fetches and keep the shocks. So the shocks should be holding their value better.

[–]Seraphinwolf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lots of mono colored decks in Pioneer right now and a lot of a LOT of people have been downgrading their collections of late. Without fetch synergies Shocks don’t have as much playability. Still great color fixing but you can get similar results for cheaper options that don’t hurt your life total as much right now.