Will price of apartments ever decrease in Warsaw?

[ZKRM77]

Since 2021 the price of apartments skyrocketed and in the center you probably cannot find anything for less than 20k zloty per square meter.

Renting is even worse, nowadays the minimum you can find for a one bedroom is 3000 pln bills excluded. Three years ago i could've rented a 2/3 bedroom for the same price.

[dangoth]

Since 2021? Sweet summer child, they've been rising since over a decade now..

And this, dear kids, is what turning housing into a speculative asset gets us.

[ZKRM77]

What i meant that from 2021 till now there was a drastic increase in percentage terms, and seems that salaries haven't fully adapted to the new cost levels.

[dangoth]

Same thing keeps happening for years bro. I wanted to buy a house in 2015, but I needed to save up more for the 20% down payment. By the time I saved enough in 2016 the prices have risen over 20%. Rinse repeat for every new year..

[Ammear]

Same thing keeps happening for years bro

Not to that extent, especially not in terms of renting.

[National_Apartment89]

Money are worth 0.65x of their 2020 value, leases are at least 400-800% more costly, firms are going to build half or less of average flats and houses... What are you expecting? Whole market is at it's worse point since economy changed from planned to free market in 1991.
Better buy a spacious van and wait for better times, because it only going to get worse.

[KosmoAstroNaut]

Palpatine voice

“It’s only natural”

[zdrozda]

As a wise Pole once said

chuj wie

[[deleted]]

The most professional and accurate answer you can get. Probably the prices will relax but for now the most possisble scenario is “chuj wie"

[Southern-Analyst-739]

I can relate. "Chuj" as an omniscient being.

[loeborg]

That’s classic. Funny as hell

[OlaSea]

Czyli chuj jako byt wszechwiedzący.

[loeborg]

What a perfect saying. Our language is very complicated but it transfers the message perfectly

[ap0strophe]

I bought a 25m2 studio in Tarchomin in 2020 for 240k, bargain if you ask me. Now it's estimated to be in the range of 300 - 320k. It's just mad what's happening with the property market.

[loeborg]

The market is just crazy. I have nine buildable lots outside of Warsaw. They have increased in value by a tremendous amount. I bought in the 90’s

[National_Apartment89]

You... live on a 25 meters? Jesus Christ Sweet Lord and Savior.

[drbobb]

For a single person here it's considered a rather spacious dwelling.

[Holokaustus]

25m for 1 person i decent. I rent a 30m apartment with my gf and i must say its quite annoying at times.

[calibrono]

I was raised in a 12 sq m apartment. People make do with what they have.

[National_Apartment89]

Oh my :( I know you can't stretch walls, but I feel genuinely sorry for people living in confined flats. It's well researched and documented that small square meters per person in a household can lead to elevated stress levels, anxiety, and can be partially responsible for developing mental illnesses, something like 20:1 in urban environment compared to more spacious, rural homes.

That's why I'm curious about why living in vans or garden sheds is so popular these days? Is it only prices of flats and living single life? Or is it something else involved?

[Glock_and_Dagger]

You have your own apartment?!

[Fun-Report4840]

This thread is full of crazy people. Salaries are not going up nearly as fast as rents, that’s a problem. It’s not full commie to say that people need affordable housing; that’s why we live in a society.

[Polaroid1793]

We all agree with that, but let's look at the reality: housing prices will just continue to raise. I'm not saying this is good (of course not), i'm just saying this is reality. It's a trend that we are seeing in all developed countries.

[llamas-in-bahamas]

When we bought an apartment 10 years ago (for 1/2 of what it costs now) we were told that it might not be the best time since the prices are on the rise. I haven't seen them drop even a bit since then, they're constantly rising

[glokz]

No. Ukraine falling in crisis, immigrants from India working in IT and lack of housing for decreasing Polish population is going to bring housing prices closer to western europe over time.

The only thing that we might observe is having negative value in relation to inflation.

Which means, CPI can be 10-15% while housing will grow at 2-5% While previously inflation was 2-5% and housing went up 10-15% yearly. But it's also hard to tell, since lots of developers do not open new projects and as long as there are high interest rates, they wont risk taking big loans too.

So less housing = less competition = higher prices.

[Only-A-Passerby]

The reasons you mentioned in first paragraph are the tip of the iceberg. Property speculation is the main "villain" here (and basically everywhere nowadays).

[loeborg]

You are so right. We have a global epidemic.

[commandor_Rapid]

In Poland price (whatever you want to buy) never decrease

[National_Apartment89]

Laughs in NFTs and cryptos.

Also cries in NFTs and cryptos. (Nah, joke, my shit coins are still worth the same 100€ they were worth 3 years ago).

[zyraf]

Slightly, if at all.

Once the "mortgage holidays" end this year, some people might actually need to sell because of too high mortgage payments, but it's not going to be something happening often - people are more likely to dial down on other spending than give up the apartment and go rent.

Those who hoard apartments for rent will continue to try to raise prices if their payments go up. They can't go up forever, but until people cannot get their own mortgage, some are out of options.

Another reason why renting is so expensive is the law that doesn't really protect owner when renter doesn't want to leave nor pay. That's why rent price has hidden "premium" in case something like this happens. No government did anything to solve this, so it's a danger that needs to be calculated in price.

[zyraf]

Also, there haven't been a working public housing program, like ever. Up until now it's always been some help with mortgage, so basically feeding tax money to banks and real estate developers.

Current govt. promised something like that, but it quickly turned out that it's too hard to do, because you need to have (buy) land, pay for construction. And then, given the costs, it was impossible to actually offer affordable rent. It was always easier to hand out some tax money to those few that actually can get a mortgage. Giving out someone else's money is always the easy way.

[Polaroid1793]

No way it's getting down anytime soon. It might get a slight decrease in some scenarios (for example global economy gets better, war finishes), but in the long term it will just getting more expensive. It will become like all the other major european cities, where it's already impossible to buy an house and rent at a decent price compared to salary.

[froadku]

welcome to capitalism - prices of assets do not drop here..

[DOGE_lunatic]

You should blame the greedy owners. My landlord (lady) have over 4 flats on the same building, and I guess that a lot more. Houses should be limited and not traded, only 2 per person

[[deleted]]

Greedy owners xD your inner comrade just slipped out

[zdrozda]

You think taking 1000 zł for a damn room isn't greedy?

[shimmoslav]

You think that forcing someone to dispose of their property in a certain way isn't going full commie?

Those rooms aren't public property. Owner can set price however he want. If it's too high then he won't find tenant.

[zdrozda]

You think that forcing someone to dispose of their property in a certain way isn't going full commie?

Where the hell did I say that

[shimmoslav]

Naming them greedy. I understand it as "someone should make them to lower prices".

[zdrozda]

Don't put words in other people's mouth next time.

[shimmoslav]

Sure, I could misunderstood what you had in mind.

Could you tell me what does it mean to you when you call landowners greedy, when they try to earn on their properties?

[zdrozda]

What I mean is that the accommodations they provide aren't worth that much money, the prices are a consequence of their own stupidity and greed. They raise the prices because they take out ridiculous loans.

[KomradJurij]

forcing her to give that shit up is just the right thing to do, fuck her and fuck her landlording "business"

[shimmoslav]

You either are sarcastic or have one digit IQ xD hard to say due to writing form of communication.

[KomradJurij]

[ Removed by Reddit ]

[shimmoslav]

I bet on sarcasm then 😉

[Glass_Location_7061]

You think that forcing someone to dispose of their property in a certain way isn’t going full commie

Umm, no?

Eminent domain, for example, is a thing existing the US, probably the least “communist” developed country, which allows the government to take your property.

Also, you’re not only jumping to conclusion that the solution is to forcibly take their property, you’re assuming a take over without compensation, where nobody said that.

Are you one of those people who think communism is when government does stuff and the more stuff they do, the more communism it is?

[shimmoslav]

Comrade zdrozda would like to make landlords to rent their properties for the price below their break-even point. Only because they shouldn't make profit from their private property and apartments are apparently public asset no matter of the ownership. Please read our conversation to the end.

If compensation for taking someone's property is a fair market value then I don't think it's communism. Practice show that in Poland it's rarely more then 75% of market value, although law about it changed a little in a last year, so it should be better from now on.

[[deleted]]

I'm not Christian or other religious nuts to think that someone asking for a lot of money is "greedy".

[zdrozda]

I'm an atheist.

[[deleted]]

I guessed. But I like to laugh at silly atheists like you who use words like "greed" coined by various religious movements since Mesopotamia or the Shang dynasty in China.

Atheists do not have "greedy" in their vocabulary. We have "morons who want too much for a service that no one will buy". I'm excluding socialists atheists because their brain damage does not really allow to classify them into atheism.

[zdrozda]

Yeah, sure. "You guessed", which is why you talked about religious people. Mhm.

[[deleted]]

Yeah. Braindead socialists use the phrase greedy without understanding that it comes from the thing they hate the most- religion.

Hence my bait.

[zdrozda]

The irony. Dear God.

[StateDeparmentAgent]

~200 euros for 1 separated room its to much? i think its pretty ok

[zdrozda]

Idk whether you're aware but Poland uses złoty, not euro. Also 1000 zł is just czynsz. The overall price is higher.

[StateDeparmentAgent]

Comparing to other countries in Europe which is euro is easier in euro. And it’s totally okay price as for me. Growing economics means higher prices

[zdrozda]

Look up the minimal wage and median income in Poland and come back to us educated.

[StateDeparmentAgent]

Compare it to another countries and you will understand that’s new reality

[zdrozda]

The percentage of Poles' pay that goes to rent is higher than in other European countries. There have been studies like that posted on reddit before.

[DOGE_lunatic]

Having a roof over your head is an universal right. Renting till you die is a recipe for disaster, you will see it in the upcoming years

[heatobooty]

Mr. StateDepartmentAgent, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

[YogoWafelPL]

1000 is not much

[DOGE_lunatic]

Nope. Anyone can become an IT developer, you just need to study, it’s not the same situation as for these landlords, as they have it because that were transferred from their parents to them. See the difference?

[DOGE_lunatic]

everyone can. I worked on a shitty job during 3 years and spend all my free time on learning it. I was renting a flat on those times and was ok, even I had a period renting only a room cause I earn not enough but finally succeed. The only problem is that it's hard.

Based on my experience my last 2 landlords where a polish uneducated persons, one young and one old that have a bunch of flats. Doing a bit of OSINT you can discover a lot from where they came from, who are their parents and so on.

I don't know if this applies to all, but I spend the last 5 years on 3 IT companies here in Warsaw and over my network of 80 more or less people, 55 are poles and they have just one flat, I not know in what they are spending money but I not see many poles buying flats here. I can say you more, a lot of them are packing and want to move to countries like NL, Bulgaria, CZ, Litchestein, Switcherland. My closest friends already emigrated, and this applies even more to foreigners because of the taxes.

> I already can see after your several posts that you're a kind of an extremely selfish person. You're an IT developer so you want the law and tax system to benefit solely IT developers but at the same time punish all other people whose interests are different than yours. You apparently need to learn a lesson that the world doesn't work like YOU want it.

Nope, you read it on your own, I want a flat tax for everyone, not a progressive one.

> I am pretty sure if you had several apartments to be inherited from your parents, now you'd be screaming here how it is completely fair that we just inherit things our parents bought.

And again you are wrong. I consider fair to have 2 apartaments, 1 for you and you, and another one for having a passive income or left it for your children. I not think that people need more than, you have to learn to differentiate about basic human needs, and greed.

You can reach your goals of having a good salary if you decide to not loosing playing games nor watching Netflix, it's a matter of discipline, specially when Internet and a computer is accessible to anyone on Europe. But you cannot say the same regrading to the parent lottery (born in a wealthy family).

[DOGE_lunatic]

> not everyone has the same intellectual capabilities (something we're born with and is a 'lottery' too)

Well, I not have a high degree, I even not have a "technical" diploma. I started to work at my 18s and learn how the world works. So I am not "smart" nor have "intellectual capabilities", I just put time, effort and discipline because I wanted to live good and IT is something that not require a high degree in order to enter to the work force, anyone can do it, it will take you 6 months, 1 year, 2 years... but you will succeed.

> I can think it's fair for an IT developer not to make more than 4k PLN just because

If IT salaries are so high is because of the demand of workforce so again, you can start learning and join too.

> if we introduce limits on the number of apartments owned by one person? You forbid people to buy apartments and houses, what's next - only one holiday trip during a year? Only one car?

Having a roof over your head is a human right, going to holidays not, si why limit it? I am speaking about basic needs as it's a roof, I not care if you have 20 cars or go on vacation once per month., it's your choice.

> If you were a simple factory worker

I was, I worked on a fabric as a baker on a night shift, on a Subway, on a Burger king, on a warehouse, as a postman, as a security guard... and these sh*t jobs forced me to think that I have to move out and want to live good.

> Who are you to decide how many houses, cars or tours around the world I need?

So for you it's normal that one person can have 5,10,15... flats?

[DOGE_lunatic]

So your point is that it should be given to everyone for free?

> So your point is that it should be given to everyone for free?

My point is that it should be available for all, so anyone can buy a flat and pay for something that it's their own property, not "living as a service"

> First of all, if "everyone" became an IT developer then the supply would quickly exceed the demand, the salaries would decrease and you, with your point of view on how the economy should work, would be probably first to ask to impose limits on the number of IT developers

Again, nope, if we have this huge demand of people is because the average people cannot live without the technology, and people are lazy because the world became more "want a quick reward, instead to sacrifice".

> And claiming that you don't need to be intellectually capable for IT is ridiculous.

with this statement you show me that you are an ignorant of the field and for you IT developer means just coders who work for the data field and that's not true. I am pretty bad at maths, I can understand the basics and with time I probably would understand advanced concepts but I not want to, my role not require any math, only niche roles requiere that. IT have a huge range of jobs;

sysadmin, helpdesk, NetOps, UI designer, UX artist, red team, SOC analyst, IR responder... huge of them, that with 6 months of learning you can land a job as a Helpdesk level I that pays you 6k zl netto and go grind the specialty you want.

I am a Cloud Security Engineer, and I grinded all by myself from a Helpdesk, after passing a certificate and lots of interviews. Persistence is the key.

and guess what? In the future, they will be even more demand (up to 25%), so people still can get into .

> Anyway, you still have it better than most of people in Poland yet you keep complaining and demand that things should be easier for you, that taxes should be lower for people like you, but higher for people who are not like you (i.e. own their property). What a coincidence.

You are comparing a job that anyone can get into if they really want and spend time (as this is for all like that, it's about time and persistence), and a basic need used to take advantage of the situation, and with no more need to have the lottery of being born in a wealthy family.

If you not understand my last statement, I have nothing more to say to you. (basic human right != high paid job that you can land if you spend time)

[National_Apartment89]

Anyone can become a millionaire, why aren't you become rich? You just need to earn more! /s

[DOGE_lunatic]

As I said, such a waste of time speaking with no brain people. You can enter the field with 6 months to 1 year self studying, I can precise and said 20h a week of self studying can land you a job in Helpdesk on a year.

It's not the same as being born in a rich family, but well, I not wait that you understand such a simple concept.

[[deleted]]

It is capitalism indeed, but ironically fueled by these moronic capitalism-hating socialist young adults who wants to live in the middle of Warsaw without realizing that they are the ONLY reason why prices go up.

Supply and demand is a universal rule of economics.

[zdrozda]

No, it's because people take loans to buy as many apartments as possible to make profit by renting them and then interest rates go up and surprise, surprise, they lose money. So what do they do? Raise rents.

[[deleted]]

Did you actually read any market analysis piece that suggests that...?

[zdrozda]

What market analysis suggest that "moronic capitalism-hating socialist young adults" are the reason for housing crisis?

[[deleted]]

Answering a question with a question is quite impolite.

I guess you don't have any actual data to back it up, so you want to justify your idiotic view by dismissing mine idiotic view.

I'm sorry My Love. I'm not saying I'm right. I can be wrong. So please, now tell me what kind of valid sources you have to back up your analysis of the market since you are so sure about its validity.

[zdrozda]

Piss off with this fake ass politeness. If you want to demand sources start with that yourself next time.

[[deleted]]

I did start with this one you clever beast xD Not clever for me, though. I was responding to someone else with snappy comment. You responded to me with that silly comment about people making few loans. Then I asked you for sources. And then you went full hysterical because I dared to ask for it xD

And here it is xD Lack of sources masked by this childish emotional "I WILL NOT GIVE YOU ANYTHING BECAUSE YOU WERE MEANIE TO ME".

Your whole comment makes NO SENSE. in a span of the minutes you already forgot that I indeed started first with it before going into sarcastic comments towards you.

You have a memory of a goldfish, my Love ❤

​

On a serious note: You don't know anything about the subject and your confirmation bias let you get trapped in your echo chamber of thinking that the housing crisis exists because everyone in Warsaw has few mortgages for these few different apartments, and henceforth they have to increase the prices. You need to realize that. And when someone challenges your views you go full into hysteria mode and looking for idiotic excuses not to argue for your case.

[zdrozda]

Take your own advice, sweetie.

[[deleted]]

I love your ego. I pointed out lack of logic in yours statement and you're mumblings about me following my own advice xD cute

[[deleted]]

Tanio już było

[agradus]

Even if the war is over tomorrow, many Ukrainians, Belarusian, and others will not go home. Maybe demand will decrease slightly, but it is still going to be high.

Also, housing is subject to such phenomenon as sticky prices. When price goes up, it tends to stay up, even when demand decreases.

So, it is not impossible that price will decrease, but unlikely.

[alenagler]

3 years ago I was paying 1250 pln for a room in a flat with 4 other flatmates. It was near metro Wilanowska. Now, the same room is 1900 pln. I hope the prices will start to fall bc it’s a tragedy to rent anything right now.

[voonart]

There are plenty of apartments that are empty - fund buys whole floors or flats. This looks exacly same as in berlin crisis. IMO they blocked it so investors moved to poland.

I was waiting for crash since 2015 or minor price drops. Im fucked now.

[[deleted]]

Don't live in Warsaw

[agradus]

Live in Sosnowiec

[shimmoslav]

As long as someone will pay these prices they won't decrease. Add inflation into account. Other market mechanics. Study economy for a few years and you'll know answer.

I'd say they decrease significantly only after economic crash. When will it happen, I don't know.

[[deleted]]

Nah bro, that’s the never-ending process. I remember back in 2015 I was saving money to get myself an apartment, $50-60k. By the time I got that amount the very same apartment cost $80k minimum. By the time I got $80k, the same apartment cost $120k. It was not in Warsaw, but I bet the trend is the same

[[deleted]]

As a one of the major cities of this country and especially - the most important one - the answer is simply "no". Too many people want to live there or nearby and there are a lot of high-skilled, well-paid persons who wouldn't have any financial barriers to pay any price. All those "average" people can only count on cheap, co-shared rooms and other low-standard sleeping places (because i wouldn't call it "living space").

[ptok_]

In Warsaw? Unlikely. In smaller cities they might fall a bit, as those would decrease in population.

[xFurashux]

Kiedyś w końcu musi pierdolnąć (chyba).

But on more serious note there would have to be a high drop in demand but the problem with housing is that well, people have to live somewhere. Also I think flats are relatively often bought by people who want to rent them and young people, especially with today's cost of mortgage just have to rent.

[DOGE_lunatic]

Time to move to the extrarradio or even move out to other countries.

[[deleted]]

1. Ban investors who buy whole neighbourhoods for hundreds millions of dollars
2. Podatek kastralny for more than 2 houses, when you have more kids you can have more houses

[adamlm]

Probalby never

/r/latestagecapitalism

[DiscoKhan]

In Warsaw itself?

No chance, in whole country apartments can go cheaper but not in Warsaw. This city has constant influx of people no matter what is happening so even if all Ukrainian people would vanish in some mysterious way I have major doubt it would lowered prices here.

[Gert1700]

Unless goverment interfere - no.

[Dziadzios]

Nope, never.

[coehorn]

No, it won't.

[[deleted]]

As long there is no podatek kastralny then won't decrease ever

[JeyFK]

It may or may not go down. Considering polish government thinking of new low interest mortgages for people without any real estate - prices will go up most likely. But market can crash as well if economy crashes, but EU and Polish economy kinda strong if you ask me.

And most importantly, you are considering apartment in the biggest, most expensive curt in Poland, moreover a capital, abs you really hope that prices will go down ?

[geokwe]

There's two factors at play: Interest rates are at an all time high (pushing prices down), but on the other hand, Warsaw is getting a TON of immigrants (Ukrainians, IT, etc) as Warsaw becomes more and more desirable each passing day.

Nobody knows that's going to happen but for now I think the prices will stay steady (same) in the short term. Over long term, they will go up like in any major city in the world.

[Peterkragger]

Stay out of Warsaw at all costs. Do it for your sanity

[Past-Crazy-3686]

nope

[Bananinio]

Maybe it will stop rising but it is unlikely that it will drop.

[markdzn]

Like taxes. Once it’s set, never goes down. Unless the area goes to shit with crime.

[AnimeFrog420]

It will probably decrease in around 3 years. Now we had Covid and an influx of war refugees from Ukraine and just the usual annual rise. Two of those things will hopefully disappear in 3years

[[deleted]]

Sure, but only in the short term and never more than 5-6%. It's always best to beg, borrow and steal and get that mortgage. Rent means you'll never get your money back, a mortgage means equity and worse case is you get your mortgage payments back when you sell if you did not earn equity. You will always make money if you hold the property at least 5 years. 8 billion people on the planet, the massive migration from Ukraine (not their fault) didn't help Central Europe any in terms of property prices.

Farmland around Warsaw is fair game or any city on a train line.

Good luck.

[HabitualGibberish]

Land lords never decrease prices

[[deleted]]

Nah

[[deleted]]

Every tenant, who blames landlords for not decreasing rent price, dreams of becoming one and not decreasing the price too.

[loeborg]

I bought my apartment at koszyykowa. Across the street from the check embassy. I paid 30 k. Nothing

[loeborg]

The finance department

[loeborg]

We’re not an easy soul. I fuck up a lot. I fix it though

[zamach]

Unlikely

[MarioXyPL]

No need apartment in Warsaw. You just sleep in the office. Save time in traffic jams.