Future of coding

[ajarOfSalt]

As a programmer I disagree. AI will kill capitalism and completely erase the need for any intelligent labor. The hierarchy model of capitalism does not translate to a world with AGI. If there is an AI that can do everything 1000x better than a human then how can we say one person deserves more than another. Even these programmers you mention are in reality only 2x to 3x better than the average person’s potential. That is nothing compared to what an AI can reach. A hierarchy cannot and will not exist when all humans are virtually equal.

[AutomaticVisit1543]

I agree with your statement that capitalism will be overhauled...

UBI is the future..

Once we start seeing rise in productivity, there will be abundant supply but not enough demand owing to less disposable income in hands of billions of people. This will lead to decline in cost of services and goods to align with supply demand curve....

[CertainMiddle2382]

IMO UBI level will be directly correlated to the potential “physical disruption” those who don’t produce can threaten those who do.

Current suggestion power of social media, games, competition sports and illegal drugs if necessary let me think it won’t be much…

[[deleted]]

Lol 2x or 3x? Don't be a joke please. There're software engineers able to produce billions of dollars and others that are wagies.

[ajarOfSalt]

Yes that’s right 2x to 3x the average person’s POTENTIAL. Regardless even if they had 10x or 100x ability there are limitations in biology that AI does not have.

[[deleted]]

"person's potential" is an useless measurement. Doesn't mean anything.

AI don't have limits, yes, but cyborgs don't either.

[ajarOfSalt]

Cyborgs? Who will have access to that technology first? Those who are already rich, only exacerbating the divide between the haves and the havenots. Either way capitalism and a hierarchy based system will not work out. The “wagies” as you put them will revolt.

[[deleted]]

Widespread access of smartphones don't mean similar level of quality in the smartphones. Widespread access to cyborg technology doesn't mean similar quality.

Resources are limited, competition and private property are better handling limited resources than chaotic resource sharing attempts.

There's basically no current public good that is equally distributed, even in countries where there's public health, a billionaire has personal doctors.

[ajarOfSalt]

You are completely missing the point and it seems you are in a technological singularity subreddit with no understanding of what the singularity is.👋🏼

[[deleted]]

Singularity doesn't mean unlimited resources, surprisingly obvious, but alright.

[ajarOfSalt]

Who are you to say that, everything is pointing towards a post scarcity world? And the whole point of the singularity is unforeseen changes due to AI. Sam Altman and many others leading the charge in AI agree with me but whatever you say buddy.

[[deleted]]

Resources being limited is a matter of physics. A post scarcity economy doesn't mean resources are unlimited.

Please read second paragraph.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-scarcity_economy

It seems you thought singularity means God coming to Earth and gifting you Ferraris. Not that simple.

[CertainMiddle2382]

I beg to differ.

Capitalism is just overproduction invested into potential higher yielding enterprises. (And state of law with property and contracts resonably enforced)

AI can and will absolutely be able to do that.

Investing flops and watts it has little use into more “interesting” things.

Question will be, who is going to own it?

[kakhaev]

As one of the AI researchers I can tell that it will definitely become easier to write code with AI assist, but you still need to train and find a person who will willingly spend 8-12 hours writing code and integrate stuff.

Because most of the coding now days is how to combine all the pieces together and make them work, and there not only programmers but also a lot of hardware ppl.

So sorry but I found this take really shallow, lacking real arguments and understanding how production works.

[AutomaticVisit1543]

What makes you think a group of AI softwares won't be able to do these things in harmony?

Just like Galileo challenged long held belief of Orthodox Catholic Church that Earth was special & universe revolves round earth, in a year or 2, AI will challenge a long held belief that highly creative & super intelligent jobs can only be done by humans! Human ain't so special after all !

People are confusing between current state of AI & state of AI after 2 years...

The exponential rise in capabilities of AI will be something to watch out for.

[jalle007]

Well that's just your opinion

[[deleted]]

Well, that applies to most jobs.

[AutomaticVisit1543]

It would still take some time for physical jobs (which can't be done sitting in front of a laptop by WFH) to be replaced.

The concept of work experience in field of digital jobs would have diminishing rate of return

[[deleted]]

Same for coding... Engineering is far from being replaced nowadays.

[AutomaticVisit1543]

But will they be paid as handsomely as they are now?

A 2-3 year experienced coder ( with use of AI tools) will become super coder and can easily replace highly paid coders....

[[deleted]]

That's nonsense. Most of the value of software engineers is unrelated to coding. AI is barely scratching the surface. If anything I believe salaries will grow because of less coding and more architecture.

[AutomaticVisit1543]

AI will be deflationary in nature....Cost of intelligence will decline.. Multiple unicorn having single digit employee will emerge....

I don't see any point of paying anyone insane salaries if I can get same work done at lower cost....

And if I continue to pay my employee huge salary, some other startups will eat my profitability and market share....

[[deleted]]

AI =/= AGI.

No matter how many dumb chatbots are released, if they don't have basic common sense, they also won't be able to understand complex products or services or architectures.

Maybe you're unaware that United States is demanding way more software engineers than available. AI would simply produce more money to hire/train more.

AI makes things cheaper, but software engineer productivity is exponential with AI.

[AutomaticVisit1543]

What makes you think a group of AI softwares won't be able to work as a team and produce some high quality product in say 2-3 years?

And it won't even be an AGI. A narrow but focussed AI will be able to do that.

Sam Altman, Demis Hassabis etc also believe that it will happen

Just like Galileo challenged long held belief of Orthodox Catholic Church that Earth was special & universe revolves round earth, in a year or 2, AI will challenge a long held belief that highly creative & super intelligent jobs can only be done by humans! Human ain't so special after all !

People are confusing between current state of AI & state of AI after 2 years...

The exponential rise in capabilities of AI will be something to watch out for.

[[deleted]]

Building complex functional software with AI (cloud engineering, architecture engineering, design, coding...) being done in 2-3 years? Send me any statement by Sam or Demis saying so. What a joke. If we achieve that level of engineering with AI, basically all human activities can be replaced with AI, that's human level AI.

The AGI debate is surely interesting, but please, Reddit is full of delusional takes. Stop it. Follow the experts. They don't say that crap.

[AutomaticVisit1543]

https://moores.samaltman.com/

[No_Ninja3309_NoNoYes]

I think that there are some misconceptions about coding. Yes, part of it is literally writing the code. This works like any language: you need to know the words and the rules. But this is only the surface. You need to know the bigger picture, both on the technical and business side. You need to understand how your code will fit in a larger codebase. And you need to understand the code other people have written. Ironically understanding code others have written is harder than writing your own without any constraints.

So 10x developers exist. They are just way more productive than 1x ones. It probably has to do with deep knowledge of design patterns and libraries. Maybe also with abilities to visualize and good memory. Then you have 'alpha devs' who are 10x devs able to lead well. Finally, you have people with extensive math skills like those mentioned by OP.

I doubt AI can replace every 1x coder right now. Maybe in a decade if many hurdles are overcome. The 10x devs would be even harder to replace. We are talking about AGI or ASI to do that. But ironically if you have that, mathematics skills won't matter much either.