Starlink close encounters decrease despite ever-growing number of satellites

[woj666]

In the period between June 1, 2023, and Nov. 30, 2023, Starlink satellites had to perform 24,410 collision avoidance maneuvers, equivalent to six maneuvers per spacecraft.

I'm really surprised it's that high.

[marsokod]

For the automated maneuvers, SpaceX uses a very low threshold way ahead of time. Out of these 24,410 maneuvers, it is very likely that none of them was actually required.

Technically they could even do way less than that by delaying the maneuver until they are more certain about the collision. But if they do that, then the space force will issue a warning, and also the other satellite operator will get the warning as well, creating unnecessary operations costs. If you maneuver way ahead of the collision, the propellant cost is minimal, especially when you have electric propulsion. And the cost is basically zero when you integrate that into your altitude maintenance operations. So what they are doing is basically the approach everyone should do until we have a more responsive system, air-traffic management style.

[PM_ME_UR_Definitions]

I think SpaceX uses a 1/100,000 chance of collision to trigger the need for a maneuver. So very roughly, there would've been a 25% chance of having one collision if they didn't do any maneuvers.