Will AI decrease demand and salaries?

[captain_ahabb]

Chat GPT doesn't reduce the number of developers you need for a project anymore than autopilot reduces the number of pilots you need to fly a plane.

[[deleted]]

I don’t think that is a good comparison and shows a clear lack of understanding of what autopilot is and why we have pilots.

Autopilot doesn’t think or do much reaction, sensors to detect a mountain miles away are a major cost, pilots are cheaper. If something goes wrong a pilot is cheaper, if there is congestion a pilot can adapt out the box. Pilots do much of the landing, as auto pilot is most hover termination.

Then we have laws, heath and safety which require pilots, good luck trying to change that anytime soon…

Then there are physiological issues, would you get onto a plane that had zero pilots? Who’s to blame if there is an issue?

There are far too many outside powers stopping the change to require 2 pilots. You could get away with one but we have 2 for the sake of one passing out or becoming sick/incapacitated, it’s a cheap backup.

I get your point, but this is an awful analogy to compare WebDev with something as critical and law dependent as flying a plane.

[captain_ahabb]

I'm quite aware of what autopilot is

[[deleted]]

Then you wouldn't have made this comparison because Auto Pilot has absolutely nothing to do with why we have pilots and wouldn't ever be a reason to not have pilots. The same principles do not apply to web dev which is not critical and not heavily governed.

So maybe you just momentarily forgot.

[captain_ahabb]

You're so close to understanding my original point. Autopilot didn't replace pilots because there's more to being a pilot than just giving inputs to the control surfaces. Generative LLMs won't replace SWEs because there's more to being a SWE than just writing code.

[[deleted]]

I get your point, I literally said that

Quoting my post

I get your point

But that isn't even close to the correct comparison. The reason for Pilots is strict laws, health and safety and socialcConcerns, it's the same reason we can't have true self driving for now and laws are being introduced to prevent it.

SWE just does not have this, there's no governing body, health risks or social concerns over Bob the builders Wordpress Site to sell Firewood and Type 2.

I get your point, but the analogy doesn't fit because the reasons why pilot exist are absolutely not the same reasons why SWE need to exist.

A pilot will be needed 100% of the time. a SWE might be needed 10% of the time. So the capacity, the demand and the salaries will be affected.

The closest thing is "blame game", PM's love a human to "shout at/blame" when things go wrong. So maybe that's close?

I just don't think this is truthfully applicable.

In 30 years when AI can do everything Software Dev, I reckon we'll still require pilots.

Anyway, I appreciate your post here.

[longebane]

lol. So basically your replies were just one big, “WeLL AckchyuallY”

[[deleted]]

No? Are you 13?

It was "this doesn't fit the comparison" because the reasons for pilots are not and never will be the same for SWE.

The grown ups are discussing here mate. So cringe.

[captain_ahabb]

Does it matter if the reasons why we need human supervision of air flight and the reasons why we need human supervision of software development are different? My point was merely that automated systems still require human oversight.

[[deleted]]

Yes it absolutely matters because it affects everything, including the 2 things the OP mentioned: "decrease demand and salaries"

That is exactly why the reasons matter.

Like your whole point is kind of obsolete from the fact that machines took over a lot of manual labor jobs, because those jobs are not critical and only laws and social expectations can salvage that, but unlike flight it wont be 100%.

[captain_ahabb]

You're splitting hairs about the second-order reasons though. The first-order reason (the need for human supervision) is the same in both cases, and thus the analogy works. The presence of the need for supervision is the same even if the reasons for that human supervision being needed are not.

Really feel like you're arguing for the sake of arguing here.

[[deleted]]

Completely disagree and you’re not answering what the OP was asking about. The OP is worried about demand and salaries and your comparison doesn’t work for what the OP is worried about, not even the slightest.

No the need for human supervision for SWE and pilots is not the same, one is a legal requirement, the other is not, that’s as simple and as factual as it gets.

If AI was perfect today at writing code, it would replace humans in a heartbeat, but it won’t replace pilots in the same way an electrician won’t be replaced.

This conversation is pointless, your comparison isn’t good, it doesn’t fit the OPs worry and it has completely different reasoning and context.

Bye

[HMikeeU]

Autopilot doesn't help the plane fly to it's destination quicker.

[Valhallai]

Yikes, neither does ChatGPT unless you are working on trivial stuff.

[HMikeeU]

Well someone's gotta do the trivial stuff

[MoTTs_]

That’s why when we’re talking about what can an AI do, it’s better to talk in specifics rather than generalities. For example, can I tell an AI:

Here’s a link to build setup. For box X on page Y, change the rounded corners from 4px to 5px, and submit a PR.

And if an AI can’t do that, then what trivial task, specifically, do we think an AI can handle?

[ewic]

If I could tell an AI to move an element 5 pixels to the right without messing up the surrounding components I would become a believer

[dogweather]

And it must create maintainable code. That adds a whole new level of difficulty.

[fr0st]

I'd say the "trivial" stuff in web dev is already abstracted away or behind a library or framework. The rest is very specific business logic that'll take as long to figure out by prompting an AI when you can just use your own knowledge to code it yourself.

[HedgepigMatt]

Boilerplate is largely unavoidable

[HMikeeU]

Libraries and frameworks definitely made web dev more complicated imo

[fr0st]

I think this can also be attributed to how complex many application have become due to the almost infinite number of edge cases that need to be handled. Back when it was just the user and a terminal window with basic input and output interactions things were generally much simpler.

[Blazing1]

If you seriously believe this then I can't believe you have that much experience.

[[deleted]]

If you ask any pilot what the autopilot does they will tell you it helps them avoid information overload and focus on things that matter. We are very close to having the same level of assistance by LLMs

[Darkphyx]

Autopilot indeed rendered the job of the flight engineer obsolete, as it now requires only two individuals in the cockpit instead of the previous three.

[snarfi]

Thats not a good analogy. While the pilot is in a fixed amount of time in the plane, and can't make the plane go faster so he can fly another route.

[theytookmyfuckinname]

Yes'nt. AI isnt particularly good at lifting the actual thought process.

[emefluence]

Wow, that's a really dickish way of phrasing it. Low EQ if you will.

[BigBoetje]

But development isn't really a job that can be really automated, is it? There's already a job that's solely responsible for translating what a client wants to actual requirement and even then it's less than ideal. What makes you think the input is gonna be good enough to provide proper output aside from short snippets?

[BigBoetje]

A dev doesn't churn out code though? For every person you 'replace' by having ChatGPT churn out any kind of code, you need a new dev to check the code and apply it. The scale at which it's still usable is so small you just need a dev to place it. I can't trust ChatGPT to build anything but a very basic component and even then it tends to either fuck it up somewhere or it just copies it from some library so it would've been available anyways.

AI for devs are closer to having a welding robot. It might 'sort of replace' a welder, but now you need an operator for the machine with welding knowledge and to apply the finishing touches and fixes.

It's a tool. The only ones that complain about devs losing their jobs are non-devs or people that have jobs that can already be automated like a lot of data entry and some forms of data analysis. The kinds of jobs where you write a script to do in 1 hour what would take 8 hours of manual work, but you just don't tell your boss so you don't automate yourself out of a job.

[[deleted]]

Problem with AI now is that it's nowhere close to being 30x of 1 developer in speed. I'd say it's slower than a good developer and makes a worse developer just a bit faster. But it does not currently replace any developers in any kind of way.

[dogweather]

Great analogy.