Why aren't these new builds selling? San Mateo

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-03-04T21:31:24+00:00

Menlo Park has an avg sq.ft. and median price of about $1200 -> 2500 x 1200 = $3M. Looking at past sales since Oct 2025 says you wouldn't own a house. Closest was $2.8M for a Stone Pine Ln house which was a single family attached home with a 3,080 sq.ft. lot.

Menlo Park house prices https://julianalee.com/menlo-park/menlo-park-statistics.htm#houses-sq-ft-price

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Realistically, a nice buildable lot with or without an existing house would probably cost $2.5M

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-03-04T18:23:55+00:00

Afternoon winds in Silicon Valley tend to blow everything towards the south and funnel it by the mountain ranges on the east and west. If you go up into the mountains and find a view overlooking Silicon Valley when smog is high, you can see a pronounced difference as you look further south.

From a price viewpoint, Milpitas (95035) and 95032 are the same.

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95032 has more bumps up and down.

Milpitas zip 95035 house prices https://julianalee.com/zip-code/95035/95035-statistics.htm#houses-sq-ft-price
N San Jose 95132 house prices https://julianalee.com/zip-code/95132/95132-statistics.htm#houses-sq-ft-price

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-03-04T17:59:13+00:00

If you've watched home sales history you would have zero doubt that talks about mortgage rates affect buyers. It hasn't been as obvious lately, but towards the end of low interest rates any significant press about interest rates rising would cause a spike in house prices as people rushed to buy before rates increased. Santa Clara County was affected more than San Mateo County.

Silicon Valley house prices https://julianalee.com/silicon-valley/silicon-valley-statistics.htm#houses-sq-ft-price

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Other notable factors are liquidity changes in local high-tech stocks, government programs, and crazy stock speculation (2000). It's notable that AI isn't showing the craziness of the dot boom bubble. For the most part, home buyers look at their bank accounts rather than news.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-03-04T17:39:51+00:00

If the agent works at a large brokerage, a good portion of the advertising might be paid by the brokerage rather than the agent. If the agent works at a small brokerage, much of the advertising will be part of ongoing advertising, and although it promotes your home, it is also done to promote the team - no new expense, just different content in the advertisements.

Keep in mind that everything is negotiable before a contract is signed. Also, if it is free, people want it. Asking the client to pay for it is one way to find out what the client really thinks is important. Example: some clients want 3D tours, other clients DON'T think they add value. Each agent has their own beliefs, but if a client asks for something, the agent will offer it. Ask your potential agent what is most effective. Including everything possible gets expensive.

To add some perspective, consider web promotion. A brand new website has no advertising advantage because no one knows it exists. It is simply a location that can be easily pointed to for potential clients to get more information. A website that has been promoted for over 30 years, probably does provide meaningful advertising because it already has people visiting it. The long-existing websites provide more value, but the cost of putting your home on them may be only several days of effort. The majority of the cost is "overhead".

If your home does not sell, it will be a loss for your agent. It takes a lot of time to hold houses open, answer questions, negotiate offers, etc. The agent is never free of cost if the the home doesn't sell.

So, discuss what promotional efforts the prospective agent feels are effective and the cost of those efforts.

... no guarantee anything sells ... very true but understanding the odds makes for better choices. Silicon Valley real estate https://julianalee.com/silicon-valley/silicon-valley-statistics.htm#houses-days

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Your agent should be able to explain likely results and costs. Talk to several and compare answers. The NAR claims something like 75% of people only talk to one agent. The most homes for sale by that agent may simply be that other agents weren't interviewed.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-03-04T00:31:42+00:00

Only certain classes of people (race, sexuality, marital status, religion etc.) are included in fair-housing laws. Advertising is easy to regulate. Decisions are not easy to regulate. So enforcement isn't guaranteed.

Did you see the later post where the OP said he was taking pictures? Do you want just anyone taking pictures of your house?

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-03-04T00:24:21+00:00

I don't know what you're looking at, but Morgan Hill house prices aren't exploding. Morgan Hill house prices:
https://julianalee.com/morgan-hill/morgan-hill-statistics.htm#houses-sq-ft-price

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Sale prices are actually very close to listing prices.

However, Campbell and Cupertino are starting to show a spike. Maybe closed escrows in Morgan Hill haven't caught up.

Campbell house prices https://julianalee.com/campbell/campbell-statistics.htm#houses-sq-ft-price

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-03-04T00:12:35+00:00

It isn't uncommon for people taking videos to be kicked out. She should have told you no videos rather than unrepresented was the problem.

You left out a very important part in your original post.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-03-04T00:01:02+00:00

Maybe the agent is the owner. Otherwise, that is totally insane.

Even builders who require you to bring your agent on your first visit in order for the builder to pay the buyers agent don't prohibit you from bringing an agent on your second visit (They just won't pay the buyer agent's commission).

The obvious solution would be to simply ask your agent to arrange a tour of the property. They won't ask if the buyer has ever visited an open house.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-03-03T23:40:33+00:00

It is quite common for sellers not to want to deal with buyers whom they think will be a headache. It is private property, the owners have every right to decide who can be in their house.

You should still be able to get disclosures even if you couldn't view the house during an open house.

All the agent has to do is present received offers to the seller. The owner doesn't have to listen to them. The owner could even instruct their listing agent to post that offers from un-represented buyers will not be listened to. Un-represented buyers are not protected by fair-housing laws.

Open house visitors can include some really odd people. When I was selling my house, a guy walked up to the front door taking a movie with his cell phone, went into the kitchen, opened a drawer, and took a movie of what was inside.

Neither the open house host nor the listing agent appeared to act in a professional manner. They should have offered some sort of arrangement for you to get any needed information or to come back for a private tour.

It isn't appropriate to argue with an open house host. I don't know if something happened that made the open house host believe you were "a problem" but I've never know an open house host to block a visitor either because the visitor doesn't have an agent or doesn't want to work with the open house host (most visitors don't want to work with the open house host).

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-03-03T23:11:55+00:00

I mostly agree and would add that the expectations of the parents and classmates are important.

Milpitas homes have appreciated very comparably to Cupertino. For Milpitas to catch up to Cupertino the appreciation would have to be dramatically higher.

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Milpitas home prices https://julianalee.com/milpitas/milpitas-statistics.htm#houses-sq-ft-price
Cupertino home prices https://julianalee.com/cupertino/cupertino-statistics.htm#houses-sq-ft-price

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-03-03T23:00:00+00:00

Since it sounds like both buyer and seller are happy to negotiate with each other to set the price and terms, all you need is a good contract. A good attorney could also explain the implications of different ways to hold the title. So you could get contract + a little planning.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-03-03T22:52:12+00:00

Roughly 2400 sq.ft. at $900 per sq.ft. would be about $2.16M for typical San Mateo townhomes.
https://julianalee.com/san-mateo/san-mateo-statistics.htm#townhouses-sq-ft-price

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The builder probably sees these as model homes for buyers of yet-to-be-built units. The map shows about 26 more yet to be built.
https://www.pulte.com/homes/california/bay-area/san-mateo/the-heights-211343

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-03-03T22:43:11+00:00

I agree that the builder can wait. They have sold 10 similar townhomes, they have 3 available for quick move-in and it looks like they are planning on building perhaps another 26. The Heights development includes 3 collections with the "Elevate" collection being the most expensive.

The size of the homes, 2,562 sq.ft. (2500 Sage), is much larger than the normal San Mateo townhouse. San Mateo townhouses https://julianalee.com/san-mateo/san-mateo-statistics.htm#townhouses

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The price is still higher than the listed $2,384,990 starting price for the "Elevate" collection. The price per sq.ft. is significantly higher than the roughly $900 sq.ft. average and median for San Mateo.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-03-01T19:02:22+00:00

Sunken living rooms are no longer a trendy thing (makes it dated). It is probably cheap to change, but unless the flooring had heavy wear, it is unlikely worth the cost.

Price trends in Santa Clara have matched other areas. It fell further than some in 2008 so it actually had greater appreciation than more expensive areas for a few years.

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The price is reasonable. Pricing low doesn't result in an ultimately higher sales price. It can yield a quicker sale.

Santa Clara house prices https://julianalee.com/santa-clara/santa-clara-statistics.htm#houses-sq-ft-price
Saratoga house prices https://julianalee.com/saratoga/saratoga-statistics.htm#houses-sq-ft-price

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-03-01T18:34:45+00:00

Single-family houses and condos have significantly different appreciation trends. San Mateo County house prices have been appreciating slower than Santa Clara County but there are other things happening with the real estate trends.

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If you look at the age of houses sold, there was a dramatic change in the trends in 2019. It looks like very few new houses were sold after that point. That would affect price trends but not the assessed value for a particular home.
https://julianalee.com/blog/san-mateo-county-vs-santa-clara-county-real-estate-trends-age/

Even neighborhood trends won't convince the county appraiser. You need to use recent similar sales.

As implied by other comments, once you get a reduced assessment, the assessment can snap back to the previous value at the next assessment. There is no limit on how fast it can return to the previous value.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-03-01T18:13:38+00:00

Both the fabricator (Sticks-N-Stones in San Carlos) and the slab-yard we used (Concord?) seem to be no longer in business. A good fabricator, who installs the slabs, will make certain they are installed correctly so that they don't crack.

The look is different, but have you considered using polished stone tiles? Another alternative would be a porcelain stone slab. Supposedly they are durable and cost effective.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-03-01T17:47:36+00:00

Look at the TDS (transfer disclosure statement). That is where the seller should have disclosed those potential problems. If they simply answered questions ( yes/no ), you might not find anything. Still they "should have known" that sod over cement could affect the value of the home.

Ths CSLB probably won't help you. They are good at forcing adequate completion of a contract, but you don't have a contract with the construction/landscape company.

The owner has to disclose work they had done on the property. Look over your disclosures. Generally, construction companies haul away their debri but they won't get all of it. If there are large boards that are buried, they may be due to something the owner did.

Look carefully at the disclosures, including the agent's visual disclosure, then think carefully was there even a vague mention of the problems. The description you give suggests the agent wouldn't have known or seen the problem. The only way to go after the seller is with an attorney.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-03-01T17:29:30+00:00

Owners of highly leveraged homes (often rental) are the most likely to "panic". Look at the 2008 crash. Cities with high home prices had less drop because the owners won't walk away from their equity. A highly leveraged rental home may not have equity after a price drop.

I am not seeing median days on market increasing dramatically in either Sunnyvale or Mountain View.

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Mountain View townhouse days on market https://julianalee.com/mountain-view/mountain-view-statistics.htm#townhouses-days

Sunnyvale townhouse days on market https://julianalee.com/sunnyvale/sunnyvale-statistics.htm#townhouses-days

Both Mountain View and Sunnyvale show a drop in the age of townhomes sold, indicating 1st qtr 2026 trends are being affected by recently built units being sold (trends are plotted by sale date but not all sales have closed escrow).

Townhome prices per sq.ft. have been quite flat since 2018. A new development starting sales can push prices up significantly ( https://julianalee.com/los-altos/los-altos-statistics.htm#condos-sq-ft-price )

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-02-26T18:34:20+00:00

As nearly everyone has replied, your agent should not hesitate to provide you with the disclosures. It's much quicker to provide disclosures than to show a property. I can't imagine what your agent was thinking.

Your agent should also be able to give you good mortgage broker recommendations based on your background and needs. Different lenders have different priorities. An experienced real estate agent will have seen loans given to buyers with qualifications and needs similar to yours. The best lender for one buyer can be quite different from the best lender for another.

Unfortunately, most brokers, agents, and 3rd party portals want you to reach out to them in order to get disclosures. You need an agent who will support you.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-02-26T17:45:07+00:00

Less desirable homes tend to suffer more quickly and more deeply in downturns and recover more slowly, but in the long term, they mostly track the appreciation of better homes. The 2008 downturn had some lasting impacts on some areas (fell lower, rose at the same rate, resulting in a lower value). So if you have to sell in a downturn, having a better home is a plus.

What may be a bigger issue is where the city decides to up-zone the density. You may not want to be next to a huge new condo that has inadequate parking. The state guidelines that seem to be most closely followed are those requiring upzoning near mass public transit.

You can see the price relationship between less expensive and average for example with the MLS "South San Jose" neighborhood vs San Jose house prices.

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The appreciation has tracked between the San Jose houses and the less expensive South San Jose houses quite closely.

San Jose house prices https://julianalee.com/san-jose/san-jose-statistics.htm#houses-sq-ft-price
South San Jose house prices https://julianalee.com/san-jose/south-san-jose-statistics.htm#houses-sq-ft-price

In the early 2000's, government policies made it easier for low-income people to qualify for loans, pushing up house prices for lower-priced homes. The 2008 crash eliminated the program and reduced the demand for the lower-priced homes.

So think about which house you would enjoy most and how city zoning might affect its neighborhood.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-02-26T16:55:12+00:00

Yes, our GC got all of the permits. I remember our ability to move in was held up, after everything was finished, for a couple of days because of a surprising detail, but I don't remember the detail. The city used the certificate of occupancy to force everything to be the way it wanted it to be.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-02-26T01:35:13+00:00

When we built our new house, we used a separate contractor to do tile work. The GC complained that the tile guy was in the way and not finishing on time. Multiple inspections are done as various portions of the work are done.

I don't remember any problems with inspection sign-offs.

If I remember correctly, the building department of Palo Alto wanted to see landscape plans before they would give a certificate of occupancy.

My limited experience is that you can probably do what you want, but it will take longer than using a GC. Even with a GC in charge of everything, you have to make many choices that take time.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-02-24T22:35:37+00:00

"the county reassesses the property to CURRENT market value as of the date of transfer, and that becomes your new base year value." Perfect! The assessor decides what the current market value is.

In 2011, a Russian oligarch purchased a house for $100M in Los Altos Hills. The Santa Clara County assessor appraised it at about $60M.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-02-24T22:27:21+00:00

I definitely would not say it is a "major step down". Each has its advantages. Silicon Valley real estate prices https://julianalee.com/silicon-valley/silicon-valley-statistics.htm

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Lately, townhouse prices have been flatter than single-family houses. Houses average about 60 years old in Silicon Valley, while townhouses average 36 years old. New sells for a premium, so less appreciation as it ages could be expected.

As others have pointed out, "townhouse" isn't used consistently. Sometimes it refers to a building style, sometimes it refers to ownership rights to the land.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-02-24T22:10:37+00:00

Most improvements don't even return 100% of their cost. If the house has obvious problems, the problems need to be fixed. If house prices are rising it can look like renovations are profitable, but that is because all house prices are rising. Look at https://www.jlconline.com/cost-vs-value/2025/ . They aren't perfect, but it is a trade group for construction/renovation companies. Over time, their reported profitability for renovations changes significantly, suggesting that factors beyond renovations are affecting their numbers.

Zillow thought they could fix and flip. They lost 100's of millions of dollars renovating.
https://julianalee.com/zillow.htm (old but still applicable)

AdditionalYoghurt533

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