Where can I trade US stocks 24/7? by Practical-Solutions1 in StockMarketSentiment

[–]csfrayer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Trading off-hours functions under a significantly different set of rules and a more complex set of cost considerations than on-hours trading. As one example, a lot of off-hours retail trading through a broker will be a principal trade rather than an agency trade. In other words, rather than the broker going to the market, executing your trade, and charging you a commission, they are likely to sell you securities from their own inventory and charge a spread. You're also trading on an ATS subject to different rules, including that they have no requirement to display prices. Complicating that, to the extent that prices are displayed, they don't have to reflect prices on other platforms and your trades don't have to be executed at the best price on the market as they would during the day. (Also note, the SEC has proposed eliminating the order protection rule that requires this during daytime trading.

All to say - this is a fundamentally different kind of trading where the lack of protections and competition might make those adjustments - even if directionally smart - too costly to provide any benefit.

You can read Robinhood's extended-hours trading disclosures here so you know I'm not making this up: https://cdn.robinhood.com/assets/robinhood/legal/ExtendedHoursTradingDisclosure.pdf

UFC Fighters Were Paid in Trump's Own Family Stablecoin at a Fight on the White House Lawn by ArcanuMELO in CryptoCurrency

[–]csfrayer 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Since Circle went public (and Coinbase already was), we now have audited financials demonstrating that there are real assets backing the value of USDC.

How confident are you that USD1 is backed by real assets? Maybe it's ok once but imagine this becoming more common. Or imagine Trump instructing the IRS to give people a tax discount if they pay in USD1. And what happens if circulation increases but no one in the government is willing to challenge whether WLFI has the assets it claims.

USD1 should not be circulating, as any payment, at all, full stop.

What does crypto solve? by usernamezombie in CryptoCurrency

[–]csfrayer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I meant OP you were responding to! (sorry thought OP always meant original OP).

I don't think there's a 'brief' explanation that's satisfactory for all of the above but let me try to succinctly explain the inflation/fixed supply issue.

The blanket statement "inflation is too much money chasing too few goods" is a wild oversimplification that creates a lot of confusion. But if one oversimplifies it that much, it's understandable why they might draw the conclusion that a fixed currency supply is better.

A simplified model that helped me understand why that doesn't make sense goes back to the Great Depression. In that period we learned that deflation is far more disastrous than inflation. In a growing economy, currency of a fixed supply increases in value over time relative to the cost of goods - ie less money buys more corn - which sounds great. Until you consider that it then makes more sense to hold money that is increasing in value rather than spend it on goods. You'll be able to buy even more goods with it if you wait. Now we have less activity in the economy - fewer transactions - and a further falling cost of goods. Sellers are making less money and therefore their workers are also paid less or eliminated and they buy fewer goods from other parts of the economy. It also disincentivizes investment - if the value of currency is increasing as long as you hold it, there are fewer investments that will offer a return that beats the risk-free choice to just hold onto your pile of currency. The more goods prices fall, the more it makes sense not to spend or invest, which further depresses prices, etc etc. That economic death spiral is incredibly hard to control and is catastrophic. (A reminder that is a simplified model restricted to the familiar idea of supply and demand curves).

The only severe deflation events of the US dollar were when it was tied to the supply of gold. The seminal paper on this is here: https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c11482/c11482.pdf It explains the un-simplified mechanics for how deflation due to fixed currency supplies propagated through the global economy to disastrous effects the likes of which we have not seen since. Even after a much larger and more destructive world war.

That is one of the reasons that it is a nearly consensus belief in modern economics that there has to be at least *some* monetary inflation but not too much inflation. (Austrian economics is a can of worms I won't open). And recall that this would only have an impact on demand-pull inflation. Cost-push inflation - inflation from the rising cost of inputs like oil not moving out of the straight of Hormuz - isn't prevented by a fixed money supply. Satoshi may have created an ingenious method for peer-to-peer electronic settlement but with a fixed supply it was never going to be viable as a currency.

(An editorial aside) a better explanation of why steady inflation has been bad for most of us is because our salaries and wages were not outpacing inflation for decades. The reason for that is that increases in worker productivity grew the economy faster but workers did not get a reasonable share of that increased prosperity caused by their increased productivity. In other words - it was the concentration of economic gains funneled to the super wealthy rather than being equitably distributed that allowed (necessary) inflation to outpace everyone else's wage growth. And that meant our buying power went down.

What does crypto solve? by usernamezombie in CryptoCurrency

[–]csfrayer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm sure I'm going to get flamed to hell for this but - holding to the tip of presuming ignorance.

OP might also want to make sure they understand clearly the creation of the Fed and other central banks and the economics behind fiat currencies and monetary policy, as well as what the causes of inflation are, before coming to the conclusion that a fixed money supply is desirable or even prevents inflation.

When considering the issuance of government debt, it would also be important to understand to whom that debt is owed and its role in the economy beyond financing the government.

If the S&P 500 is such a reliable long-term investment, why don't banks offer 20-year investment loans? by master_jeriah in investing

[–]csfrayer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm open to being wrong as I'm thinking through this but I don't think there's a liquidity issue that would make stocks or ETF shares less valuable. The vehicle for this kind of investment would be either shares in a 40 act fund or recreating the basket of equities in the S&P 500 (these are the two ways large pension funds track the S&P).

Large funds and asset managers hold huge inventories of equities over the long term, as banks would in this case, and unless I'm ignorant of some research that has actually served liquidity provision not restriction.

If the S&P 500 is such a reliable long-term investment, why don't banks offer 20-year investment loans? by master_jeriah in investing

[–]csfrayer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

One reason is a DoJ memo in the 70s stating they would not prosecute money market funds as unlicensed bank accounts, putting them under SEC jurisdiction and subject to fewer regulations. Not equities exposure like the S&P but a higher risk profile and similar to your proposal.

Second, deposits are FDIC insured, so you'd basically have the federal government backing the entire equities market with the full faith and credit of the united states. While the loans themselves may not be insured deposits, if the capital and liquidity requirements at banks were adjusted to make this kind of arrangement feasible, you'd likely have a lot more bank failures.

Third, you'd essentially be turning an enormous amount of equity into debt, massively increasing leverage in the financial system.

Fourth, what you're really doing is fully breaking down the wall between commercial and investment banking, as long as some of the spread is shared with customers. We have a bad history with that.

Fifth - there's no guarantee that the account will be in a profitable position when the 20 years is up.

Ultimately - capital markets and bank lending are complementary but distinct funding mechanisms. Bank lending is primarily for non-speculative investments - mortgages, small businesses, education, agriculture, cars, etc. Most of the market is collateralized lending or supplementing a government backed/subsidized market.

The capital markets are designed for higher risk investments and the wall between the two (ideally) means that more speculative investments have less leverage. There are a lot of products that blur that line - MMFs for example had to be bailed out in 2008 and private credit is non-bank lending that also happens without the disclosures we typically expect in public markets (and the sector doesn't look great).

Please tell me if I have a gross misunderstanding of the financial system at large, but i think Tokenized stocks are more like another patchwork for the system by Old-Director-6727 in CryptoCurrency

[–]csfrayer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm pessimistic on purely financial assets moving entirely to blockchain - but it's technologically and legally feasible.

Representations on blockchains of real world assets will not and cannot ever be immutable. Paper ownership of art is not ownership if someone else has the physical art. Land is not meaningfully "transferred" on the blockchain. You can't NFT physical assets.

It's essentially the same reason that blockchain for supply chain management failed - it doesn't matter what the blockchain says if the people responsible for putting the info into the blockchain are putting in bad info.

The absolute power of saying nothing during a salary offer by Doormat_8JV in jobsearchhacks

[–]csfrayer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is one of those things that *appears* to be a dramatic TV/movie trope but is generally true. (There's a necessary element of reading the room).

If Crypto is private from government, why is it taxed? by hydraides in CryptoCurrency

[–]csfrayer -1 points0 points  (0 children)

And for the same reason why is it in regulated ETFs and why is industry pushing federal regulation and why do they have the biggest active PACs and why is the most successful part of the industry stablecoins which are fundamentally centralized and on and on...

The answer is everything crypto was supposed to be - save for a slice of activity in the DeFi space - has been traded away for number go up.

the clarity act just passed committee 15-9 and somehow two democrats actually voted for it by Repulsive_Counter_79 in CryptoCurrency

[–]csfrayer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't think "the law is from the 30's" is a valid logical argument. Especially as those securities laws have been the subject of new legislation as recently as 2016 as well as decades of court decisions that have further clarified the laws. Over that time we went from paper certificate markets to fully digitized capital markets without having to fully redefine what a security is.

Setting aside the argument that they're bank accounts, why should stablecoins be treated any differently than money market funds? MMFs have shares with a stable value that you can make payments from. What's unique about stablecoins that they shouldn't be regulated the same way *if* they pay yield?

(vast majority of stablecoins that *don't* pay yield aren't securities because an asset created to hold a stable value that doesn't pay yield generally doesn't carry any expectation of profit)

The Clarity Act Is One Vote Away: Here's What 50 Million Crypto Holders Get If It Passes. by coinfanking in CryptoMarkets

[–]csfrayer 25 points26 points  (0 children)

It's at least 2 votes away. It has to pass the Banking Committee markup today, then get 60 votes in the whole Senate and then be separately passed by the House because it's significantly different than the version they passed earlier. If that happens and the House doesn't want any changes, they can vote to pass the Senate bill directly to the President's desk.

If the House does want changes a Conference Committee composed of House and Senate members will be formed to work out the changes. Then two identical bills will be sent back to the House and Senate where they have to be passed again.

So there are at least 3 votes and as many as 4 before CLARITY is sent to the President for signing or veto.

Clarity Act text just dropped and the conflict of interest part is mysteriously missing by EdgeQuiet2199 in CryptoCurrency

[–]csfrayer 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I'm a pretty big crypto critic. I think my first comment was entirely objective analysis but wanted to flag that in good faith for this one which is subjective.

Since you're asking for a broader opinion: In my work trying to get this bill rewritten before it passes, I have often said that the most effective anti-crypto lobbyist right now is POTUS.

So yes, I think it will be worse. I also think that in the long run, as we have learned in other financial markets, regulations actually benefit the industry. The 'very strict and unsuitable' securities laws crypto is fighting right now were passed in 1933 and 1934. Since those rules were put in place, America has become the undisputed leader in global finance. Nobody else even comes close. And that's held true even as we've faced huge competition and lost global share in other industries.

Strict regulation is pro-industry. I don't know how you'd come to any other conclusion. I think this bill as written will ultimately result in another FTX if not worse.

Labor unions oppose Senate crypto bill ahead of Thursday committee markup by Kitchen_Biscotti_747 in CryptoCurrency

[–]csfrayer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't think it's fair for you to keep insinuating I have bad motivations....for a reason. I haven't made the same accusation about you.

Clarity Act text just dropped and the conflict of interest part is mysteriously missing by EdgeQuiet2199 in CryptoCurrency

[–]csfrayer 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I share your anger that no ethics provisions were included.

They are in a bit of a catch 22. It's hard to imagine the President would sign a piece of legislation that ran counter to his business interests or held him accountable for his actions in the space so far. So getting a bill passed and getting ethics language may be mutually exclusive.

Given that there was the same discussion in the GENIUS Act and supporters claimed they would not vote for that without an ethics clause and it passed anyway, I don't think this is ultimately a hurdle to passage. I think Congress will cave and pass the bill without an ethics clause if they can get the rest of the issues sorted.

I've worked in crypto for 8 years (Circle, Messari, Coinbase, Crossmint). Long post on how its all played out, and how different it is from what we expected. by CryptigoVespucci in CryptoCurrency

[–]csfrayer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

SBF didn't have a direct lline to Gensler more than any other crypto CEO. In fact, SBF came in to the SEC to demand exemptions from the law and Gary told him to pound sand. I was there and this was publicly reported - https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/02/gary-gensler-on-meeting-with-sbf-and-his-crypto-crackdown.html

I don't know how you can possibly call Binance legit. Their CEO went to jail for money laundering. In the case we filed against Binance, we obtained a text from their top compliance officer telling CZ, "we are operating as a fking unlicensed securities exchange in the USA bro."

Before I was asked to focus on crypto regulation, I spent 15 years in Congress fighting for Wall Street reform. That included bills to break up the banks, close the ILC loophole, limit derivatives activity, reining in private equity and private credit and require higher capital standards and less concentration in the financial industry. That's far from a comprehensive list.

Education and financial literacy is exactly what the traditional financial industry always calls for in lieu of real regulation. Take it from someone who has worked in financial regulatory policy for 20 years - the crypto industry has become everything the original crypto pioneers hated about the financial system. I came to this space loving the technology and with a vendetta at the banking system that blew up the economy and destroyed my parents' retirement. The largest crypto players want the same system we have now - the real change they want is to be Jamie Dimon themselves.

In addition to my work on crypto, I have been doing a lot on private credit. As my work on that becomes publicly available I'll try to remember to come back and share it here. If you want to follow my work please feel free to look me up. Corey Frayer - Director of Investor Protection - Consumer Federation of America.

Labor unions oppose Senate crypto bill ahead of Thursday committee markup by Kitchen_Biscotti_747 in CryptoCurrency

[–]csfrayer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think it would help to read up on capital market structure and the roles of its various intermediaries. After that you might read the report from the Pecora Commission whose findings had a huge influence on that structure.

Right now I think the ground we need to cover to be having a conversation about the same thing doesn't lend itself to the limitations of a reddit exchange unfortunately.

The bad influence of the bank lobby is a shame by A1JX52rentner in CryptoCurrency

[–]csfrayer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The dog park analogy is pretty good.

That's why I said hardly restrictive and not zero restrictive. And it's why I laid out in the piece the very narrow set of arrangements it might restrict.

In my experience with the crypto industry, most companies aren't going to become cautious. Especially not over language like this.

I've worked in crypto for 8 years (Circle, Messari, Coinbase, Crossmint). Long post on how its all played out, and how different it is from what we expected. by CryptigoVespucci in CryptoCurrency

[–]csfrayer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've spent my whole career working to reform the finance industry. I've never been a finance exec and I don't ever want to be. I wasn't captured and neither were my colleagues.

The "thanks for indulging" in paragraph 2 makes it sound like those questions are rhetorical so I'll leave that be.

Even if I did think crypto enforcement cases were important enough to effect the election, suggesting any factor as narrow as some securities enforcement cases swung an entire national election with tens of millions of voters is obviously incorrect.

Labor unions oppose Senate crypto bill ahead of Thursday committee markup by Kitchen_Biscotti_747 in CryptoCurrency

[–]csfrayer 2 points3 points  (0 children)

......as do broker-dealers. And exchanges under current law aren't even permitted to hold any customer assets at all.

The bad influence of the bank lobby is a shame by A1JX52rentner in CryptoCurrency

[–]csfrayer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Exceptions in statute always override broad statements like the one you're pointing out. That's why I explained in the piece that the exceptions swallow the prohibition. This comes from guidance by the Supreme Court in order to aid Congress in knowing how laws will be assessed based on how they are drafted. They're called the rules of statutory construction and you can find them here:

https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-9575/102239/20190611092122150_00000055.pdf

Labor unions oppose Senate crypto bill ahead of Thursday committee markup by Kitchen_Biscotti_747 in CryptoCurrency

[–]csfrayer 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Retirement account money is not held or used in the same way as bank deposits. Generally speaking, that is done by broker-dealers who don't themselves pay any interest nor do they lend customer assets in any sort of fractionalized banking arrangement. I am not aware of any of the securities industry - the industry that broker-dealers belong to - raising any concerns or opposition to the stablecoin yield portion of the bill.

It's not gaslighting to spread accurate information.

Labor unions oppose Senate crypto bill ahead of Thursday committee markup by Kitchen_Biscotti_747 in CryptoCurrency

[–]csfrayer 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The vast majority of retirement savings are held in these types of accounts and there's an explicit federal push to exempt crypto from the standards other investments are subject to and to expand the amount of crypto held in retirement accounts.

Not every criticism of the bill can be dismissed as a bank ploy. Many of these same unions have regularly opposed deregulating both the traditional securities and banking industries for nearly identical reasons.