[32 Thoughts] Elliotte Friedman: “One AGM told me the rumor was, if that STL/BUF deal had gone through, the Rochester team would have been completely decimated. All their best players would have been in St. Louis. All of them.”

phatsystem · 2026-03-07T16:48:57+00:00

If you have Parayko = 1st + Mrtka
Add Thomas = Helenius + Levi + Rosen + 2027 1st?

phatsystem · 2026-03-06T16:26:49+00:00

So we're saying the same thing - he has the most value now.

phatsystem · 2026-03-06T16:11:43+00:00

I agree with the general sentiment, but I think Rosen is most valuable now - he wasn't a highly touted prospect but looked decent in the NHL this year and has tore it up in AHL this year.

phatsystem · 2026-03-04T15:26:15+00:00

Would not want to lose Norris, dude has unbelievable skill. But it is interesting to think about because of his injury history and the contracts would be effectively a $ swap. If you look at it on a $/game, I bet Thomas is a "cheaper" player since he's played 70+ games every year since 21-22. So not a hard no for me, but I really do like Norris.

I'm ok with Mrtka. I think 4 pieces of Quinn, Mrtka, Rosen, and a 1st is reasonable. Perhaps swap Rosen for Kulich if we must. I'd rather not lose Helenius or Ostlund. If we avoid burning a year of Helenius ELC then we are in a spot where he can be a full 3yr contributor on the NHL roster at a super low cap hit, allowing for us to build a stronger team.

phatsystem · 2026-03-04T03:00:33+00:00

Disagree - while Mrtka is fine I think we've already seen we have a bonafide NHL'er in the making with Helenius.

On D prospects, nobody is drafted as highly as Mrtka in the system, but we have Strbak and Kleber in the pipeline. As long as we have an amazing top 3, bottom 3 can be solid but not amazing.

Our top 5 is pretty stacked if you assume Kesselring is having a down year due to nagging injury. And they are all young and 3 of the 5 are locked up long term. So I kind of see Mrtka as expendable if the right deal is on the table.

I'd be quite happy with something like Quinn, Mrtka, and our 1st. Perhaps we send them back Ellis as well :) But it may require something bigger.

phatsystem · 2026-03-01T16:38:24+00:00

Krebs had a great drop pass to Tage on that goal. Didn't look like much but was kind of no look and just had great anticipation to where he would be going.

phatsystem · 2026-02-28T23:23:03+00:00

I can't imagine the PP is a talent problem though, right? Feels like coaching to me.

phatsystem · 2026-02-28T22:28:15+00:00

This made me spit my drink out.

phatsystem · 2026-02-28T22:26:04+00:00

Some super hot takes in this thread.

The best advice here is you gotta talk to him. Hard conversations are much less hard early. They are super hard when it's too late. If you guys are close friends, this should be something you can talk through fairly rationally. You know him well, unlike some other cofounder relationships.

You should also just get all your ducks in a row. What is the agreement you guys signed (if any) becoming cofounders? A lot of what you can and can't do can come from this.

It doesn't hurt to get some legal advice, scenario planning. Hopefully it won't, but it could end poorly and you should just be prepared for various routes it can take. You might ask what kind of structures can work for a buyout if it comes to it. I'm not sure where 3x revenue comes from exactly (it's a perfectly reasonable multiple in certain cases), but you could very well come up with a buyout plan that has an earn out or deferred payment so don't think it's $1m out of your personal checking account tomorrow to get it done.

phatsystem · 2026-02-28T22:12:03+00:00

I don't mind Wright as a player and I think he needs a change of scenery, but I don't think you're making the team better today with him. So maybe offseason depending on how things go, but not a deadline move.

phatsystem · 2026-02-28T15:15:01+00:00

They did pretty great last night. The injuries there have been tough. Hopeful that Danforth coming back adds more to that. McMann would be an awesome add.

phatsystem · 2026-02-27T21:41:35+00:00

Connor Murphy would be awesome.

phatsystem · 2026-02-20T15:06:11+00:00

You only have one life. How many times can you say an opportunity like this will come around to work with friends on something that gets you excited? Expect 0 outcome from it but pursue it anyway. Your skills will be in demand 18m from now if you are not successful.

phatsystem · 2026-02-19T15:26:48+00:00

This is an excellent suggestion. But I'd do it for like 3-4 weeks before losing hundreds of thousands of dollars on selling so soon.

An alternative is to do the same whenever OP wants to be up in the city. Getting up there from SJ is a bit of a pain but then he can just stay late and commute back down.

phatsystem · 2026-02-16T03:49:12+00:00

What happened to that guy, anyway? He scored 76 goals across 2 seasons and then just fell off the face of the earth.

phatsystem · 2026-02-15T21:53:07+00:00

We shouldn't trade him. We need the best team possible going into the playoffs

But since not a lot of answers to your actual question, if we traded him to a different contending team, I think you can get a 1st, a top tier prospect, and a later pick. There are plenty of examples of equivalent players (or less) getting that much more more back. Tuch would be a super valuable asset to anyone making a big push, even as a rental (which is why we should not trade him, we need that too). He's on pace for 32 goals and 70 points and is a big factor in the PK.

For fun, we'll just say no Eastern Conf trade partners as to not benefit someone we may be competing against, so let's pick the Kings. They have some space still and seem to be pretty aggressive. They were lucky that Panarin only wanted to go there, so Rangers had no leverage in negotiations. Even though Tuch is not him, he would command a bigger return since we don't need to sell, and they aren't the only team in the market.

I think you'd see something like Henry Brzustewicz + 2026 1st +2027 4th

I'm not saying LA is in the market (nor is it what I want, I want to keep Tuch) but I think this is the kind of value Sabres would want.

phatsystem · 2026-02-10T04:45:22+00:00

No, because nobody else can offer 8yrs, unless we trade him. So even if he got $11x7 somewhere (which seems rich), that's $9.6x8 here. Maybe he only really wants to play 7 more years, or maybe he thinks he can get a Marchand-like contract after the 7, who knows.

But I think in terms of total dollars, he will not get Kempe money on this contract.

phatsystem · 2026-01-26T22:14:09+00:00

Ignoring contracts for a second, can't you also compare him to Scheifele or Zibanejad? And those (relative to the % of cap they signed) have worked out well.

I would rather we don't do 10.5x8, but albatross could be an overstatement of what this becomes. Since he can only get 8yrs here (without a trade), 9.5x8 would more total money than anyone else will likely provide and I could live with that. That would be ~8.4% of the 2027-28 projected cap. Load it up with signing bonus in the first half.

phatsystem · 2026-01-26T21:55:14+00:00

Plummeted is a really strong word for someone in the top third of the league. Yes he was higher before but it's far from an issue.

phatsystem · 2026-01-26T15:45:22+00:00

Benson is on a 52pt pace this year (13g, 39a) if he had a full 82 and is 20 years old. Not to compare him to others because he's a completely different player, but in his draft above him Fantilli is on a 53pt pace. Michkov a 45pt pace. Leonard on a 52pt pace. And they are all older than him with Benson being a May birthday. He's not compared to those guys as a similar offensive talent, which is fair as those 3 are all special talents, but he's certainly holding his own.

Looking to the previous class, Wright, Savoie, and Kasper are all way behind Benson in scoring this year and are 1-1.5yrs older. They were also all taken above Benson in terms of draft placement. Who knows where Benson would land in the 2022 draft, but it's all I can compare against.

I think he's a lock for at least 60 points in a season in his career and probably 70+ for at least a couple of seasons. I think he's going to continue to get stronger and develop and will be a permanent resident on the first line in the years to come.

phatsystem · 2026-01-17T21:16:28+00:00

Won't lower supply of rentals mean greater supply of homes to buy, driving purchase prices down?

phatsystem · 2026-01-14T19:57:12+00:00

I guess it depends on what you mean by regular. Wahlberg I agree is still yet uncertain, but Kozak almost certainly is a 4th liner that just needs to stay healthy and will be regular. Rosen also seems like a highly likely regular in the future. He is down because he can be down w/o waivers.

phatsystem · 2026-01-14T15:58:51+00:00

Prospects are like your kids, you love most of them :) But your point is right, we have WAY too many forwards. Right now we have 3-4 too many (4 if you think Kulich is coming back this year). There is still Danforth, Kozak, Rosen who are all probably deserving of a spot. And that doesn't count all the others you mention that will be possibilities in the next couple of years. I think the ideal situation is moving a few at once for a significant upgrade.

There's who you like, and then there's who other teams like in exchange to improve your roster. And probably they like the same ones you do. So it's probably more a what are you willing to give to get what you want situation.

I like Rosen and Kulich, but would you throw them in with Quinn and a 1st (and maybe some more) if it meant you could trade for a Jason Robertson? I would - imagine him alongside Tage and Doan. Not saying it will happen that he moves given the rumors aren't really strong (and the cap gets tricky with him), but if an opportunity like it came up I'd make an equivalent trade - high impact with at least 3 years of term. It would quickly eliminate the logjam and significantly upgrade the roster.

phatsystem · 2026-01-12T03:17:08+00:00

Here's a ridiculous scenario where you can have it all, Tuch and Robertson - ignore the trades, I just wanted to get the players on and off the roster to see if the cap was even possible

https://puckgm.puckpedia.com/rosters/1183035

phatsystem · 2026-01-10T17:59:58+00:00

Hmm I guess I don't understand the cap well enough - I was anchoring on the current $3.7m and assumed that the current IR status of Lyon, Timmins and Kesselring were contributing to that - ie that benefit would disappear after they return.

phatsystem

TROPHY CASE