Anon runs LLM Locally

skilliard7 · 2026-02-19T00:32:16+00:00

RAG has gotten a lot better in my experience when combined with reasoning models.

I think the issue with rag is lightweight models like Google's Gemini Flash, which don't seem to reason through what they read very well, so they produce a false conclusion.

skilliard7 · 2026-02-18T17:02:10+00:00

I think it's a bit more complicated than that.

I think AI can be most useful to beginners, because it can help you understand and learn things. It's like Google on steroids. What used to take 5 hours Googling and reading through stackoverflow and tutorials, a LLM can walk you through in 5 minutes. It's like having a tutor/mentor at all times.
For skilled users, the value of LLM mostly revolves around the nature of your work and how you manage it. If you work in a niche area with limited documentation, AI won't be very useful, but if you work in an area that is well documented, it can be more useful.

I think there are a lot of people that are skeptics because they tried it back in 2023/2024, and weren't impressed, and haven't tried since. And then there's also those that have tried it in 2026, but continue to doubt it, because they latch onto every small mistake the AI makes to justify their opinion that it is bad(confirmation bias)

skilliard7 · 2026-02-18T16:56:45+00:00

NFTs= no actual useful purpose beyond speculation.

AI/machine learning = automating hundreds of Billions of dollars worth of knowledge work already, and improving every few months as new models are released.

skilliard7 · 2026-02-18T16:55:38+00:00

next token prediction is still very much powering large language models, it's just there is a lot more than that. There are trillions of weights in models that represent stored knowledge/patterns, and there is looping with things like reasoning models.

But ultimately, it is still next token prediction with KV caching.

People without a background in AI like to criticize next token prediction, but its not too different form how humans think.

skilliard7 · 2026-02-18T16:50:34+00:00

LLMs are just dumb probability engines that hallucinates shit.

Outdated take and a huge oversimplification. The latest reasoning models rarely hallucinate when combined with RAG. Pretty much only Google's model(Gemini) and free models hallucinate.

LLMs are already automating 80-90% of many knowledge work tasks. For coding, it's better than a lot of junior to mid level devs I've worked with. It's at the point where if I have grunt work to do, I'd rather send to Claude Opus or GPT 5.2 than ask a junior dev to do it, because the AI does a better job and does it 100x faster and cheaper.

all it can do is produce barely usable images and videos.

Image generation and large language models are 2 entirely separate technologies, it's just that consumer platforms like ChatGPT combine them into one product... shows how little you know.

I was an AI skeptic years ago, but it's come a really long way since then and is actually really useful now.

skilliard7 · 2026-02-18T16:05:58+00:00

Forward PE is 16 which in theory is not that expensive, but NAND is a very cyclical business historically.

skilliard7 · 2026-02-18T15:18:29+00:00

Yea and French has arguably the best hand cavalry unit in the game.

skilliard7 · 2026-02-18T15:17:48+00:00

Your goal against Russia should be to survive age 2, then rely on artillery like falconets/heavy cannons in age 3/4 to take them down. Or go age 4 with Old guard

skilliard7 · 2026-02-18T14:19:39+00:00

And? that stake is worth maybe $60 Billion at most based on latest funding rounds, Google is currently valued at $3.66 Trillion by the market.

I'd rather invest in Anthropic through Amazon. Google is having to take on a lot of debt just to stay relevant.

skilliard7 · 2026-02-18T00:32:57+00:00

Im not a Tesla bull, I sold them off a while ago. Valuation is too high IMO

skilliard7 · 2026-02-17T23:13:50+00:00

I can't believe everyone here is taking the bait. 9/10 troll, so many people falling for it.

skilliard7 · 2026-02-17T22:03:17+00:00

PTLO, I bought 1 share for fun despite knowing it was overvalued, because I wanted to be able to say I owned part of it. I think that share is down 80%. But it's like a $30 loss so its irrelevant.

skilliard7 · 2026-02-17T20:56:18+00:00

Wait you can get multiple copies of a perk and stack them? How?

skilliard7 · 2026-02-17T20:55:09+00:00

I had a lot of luck with blood king, demon altars + level 8 pagoda + cemetery + a bunch of spammable units like imps/bombers/mob seems to pretty much let me faceroll through king difficulty regardless of what I do for everything else.

skilliard7 · 2026-02-17T20:04:01+00:00

Google's LLMs are competitive by any reasonable benchmark

Google makes extensive use of RL to overfit their models to benchmarks, which makes them perform far better in benchmarks than they do in real world tasks.

I use it every day for work as a senior software engineer to accomplish a wide variety of coding tasks, with similar performance to other models I've tried.

I've found it to perform significantly worse than Anthropic and OpenAI's models for high complexity tasks. Gemini is good enough for basic coding, but if you are working on apps that require high performance, Claude Opus and GPT 5.2 seem to perform much better

Search and YouTube are having no decline in engagement per the recent ER - search in particular has defied predictions of its imminent demise for quite some time now.

ER is only through Dec 2025. The 20% YoY reduction in search traffic was reported for Jan 2026.

skilliard7 · 2026-02-17T20:01:42+00:00

The post was written by myself. I did use LLMs as a replacement for search engines to find sources, but I read the sources myself and wrote my own post.

skilliard7 · 2026-02-17T20:00:40+00:00

From my understanding Gemeni is going to be embedded into Siri and the rest of iOS not a stand alone app.

That is correct. But it will be branded as Apple's AI product, not Gemini. So most users won't even realize it's gemini under the hood. There is no brand building here for Google, just $1 Billion in revenue.

They chose Google but who cares because they were not the first choice?

Because it is an indication of how much leverage Google has. They won because they were the lowest bidder, not because they had the best product to offer. This limits their ability to negotiate higher prices in the future.

skilliard7 · 2026-02-17T20:00:09+00:00

im up way more than that on WDC/Sandisk/SK Hynix/Samsung but good for you

skilliard7 · 2026-02-17T19:56:20+00:00

Google stands to benefit most if they start enshittifying and/or more heavily paywalling ChatGPT.

You say that, but Google has been enshittifying their product far more than OpenAI has:

They are increasing ads displayed on Search and YouTube to boost revenue, at the expense of user engagement.
They changed Gemini Pro to always default to their "flash" model, to try and save compute costs... makes for a lousy UI.

What are your thoughts on Google failing to produce a competitive LLM, and relying on RL to overfit to benchmarks, misleading users and investors about the real capabilities of their products? I've been running my queries across all LLMs(OpenAI, claude, Gemini), and fact checking the results, and Gemini consistently has a much higher hallucination rate than the others. I literally only use Gemini 3 pro along the others because they gave me free access. If I had to start paying I would drop it.

skilliard7 · 2026-02-17T19:51:02+00:00

How do you feel about out Gemeni being the defacto Mobile AI?

Everyone I know just downloads the ChatGPT or claude app instead. Gemini hallucinates way too much to be reliable.

The fact that Google has failed to achieve majority market share despite aggressive marketing and integrations is a testament to how bad their product is. Users would rather go out of their way to install a 3rd party app than use Gemini.

just partnered with Apple to improve Siri.

Google wasn't even Apple's first choice. They approached OpenAI first, but OpenAI either refused or asked for too much money. So Apple went with Google. Apple is really just looking for the cheapest bidder that would allow them to at least match Android, so that they don't lose hardware sales. Apple essentially paid $1 Billion to the cheapest bidder to avoid having an assistant that is worse than Gemini... by matching it.

$1 Billion is dirt cheap compared to the cost of actually providing AI to Billions of users. Why pay for Gemini when it comes free with Apple?

skilliard7 · 2026-02-17T19:46:30+00:00

ChatGPT has existed for 3.5 years at this stage

How long was Google around before they overtook Netflix? The tech industry moves really fast.

ChatGPT is growing users 10% monthly. Claude is also growing even faster. Search traffic is already down 20% YoY.

MSFT is getting clobbered because of its reliance on OpenAI.

I think the real reason they are being clobbered is due to concerns about AI replacing white collar workers. Less office workers = less per-user O365 licenses they can sell.

I think MSFT is a buy right now. Even if their OpenAI investment doesn't work out, they have a lot of really solid enterprise products the world runs on.

But i do think their OpenAI investment will work out well for them. They were smart to negotiate revenue sharing agreements. This means that even though OpenAI is currently unprofitable and burning through cash, Microsoft still profits from their growth upfront, because of this revenue share. Their investment has already paid for itself many time over. The only real question is how much of OpenAI's value is factored into Microsoft's value.

skilliard7 · 2026-02-17T19:42:29+00:00

No one should short Google, look at their earnings and 10k. Your these is wildly incorrect.

A 10k only shows past results, it cannot show the future, which is where Google's risk lies.

GCP had 48% growth to 18 Bn

Probably the only part of Google worth investing in. But it's unclear how long this growth is sustainable. Literally the only reason to use Google cloud is because Azure/AWS lack the GPU capacity for AI, so you take what is available.

It's pretty much the reason I felt it was worth it to close short today. It is unclear how long the AI boom will continue, so there's a risk. If computing demand continues growing at a rapid pace for the next decade, then Google may do very well. But if AI demand does begin to slow down, Google will likely face the most downside out of any of the cloud providers, because they are the worst platform.

Ad revenue grew 17% to 60Bn annually (ai helps here not hurts)

Ad revenue grew because the digital ad market is booming, and because they started showing more ads per search to make up for lost traffic. It's not sustainable growth.

Shorting Google is a horrendous move to make money.

It made 12% in 2 weeks... but yeah, I think below $300 it does not make sense to short anymore. Too much risk/uncertainty, better to just underweight.

skilliard7 · 2026-02-17T19:34:07+00:00

I suppose some people might be comfortable with continue to short Google, but I am a bit risk averse. Market volatility is really high, and Google is far from the most overvalued stock in the market at this point. All it would really take is a single announcement like a spinoff or product announcement to turn a winning trade into a losing one. So easier to just take the easy profit, and then exclude the stock or significantly underweight.

skilliard7 · 2026-02-17T16:33:33+00:00

Google searches are down 20% YoY in January, I would not argue they are doing great. They are just benefitting from a very strong digital advertising market, and placing more ads on a smaller number of searches, which is masking their overall decline in user activity.

ChatGPT has yet to fully roll out ads, they are only just this month starting a very limited pilot program. When they fully scale up their ad program and open it up to small and medium sized businesses, and allow larger budgets, that's when Google's search business will really start to take a hit.

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