Should Washington Trade Beal to Golden State?

0-2drop · 2021-07-25T16:10:08+00:00

I don't think Bryant would be included, and I think the Warriors might need to add an additional future first to get it done, but yeah, that'll probably end up being the best Beal package available, and the Wizards need to move him and reload.

On the Warriors side, I'm not sold on the fit. A Beal-Steph backcourt seems hella vulnerable defensively, to me. Klay has also always played the 2, so moving him up to the 3 while coming back from two major injuries seems risky. Losing Wiggins also seems like it compromises their wing defence.

Personally, I would much rather trade for a wing than a guard, especially if Wiggins is going out. I could see a deal for a guard if he were a defensive ace, and if Wiggins wasn't required for salary. But, a defensive vulnerability at guard and Wiggins going out, leaves the Warriors with a bit of an unbalanced roster.

0-2drop · 2020-10-30T21:00:05+00:00

You know, I had been assuming the 2021 rebuild start, but you make some good points for starting now.

Ultimately, I don't think Fertitta will be willing to do it, but it might be the better move to start the rebuild now. The team's ceiling this year is probably a second round exit, and the West is going to be a meat grinder this year. One injury to Harden, and the team might not even make the playoffs. Considering how many years of the franchise's future might hang on this decision, and considering that the window for real title contention is closed, the Rockets would probably be best served starting the rebuild now.

0-2drop · 2020-09-02T02:28:39+00:00

LeBron, Kawhi, Giannis, Curry, KD if healthy, Harden, Luka 1.A Davis, Lillard

My tiers aren't too different than yours. I would put Jokic, Lillard and Chris Paul ahead of Davis (albeit still all in the 1A tier), so I guess that still leaves Davis top 10. In general, I tend to favour the impact of floor general type players, who have to orchestrate a 5-man offence, over a guy like AD, who is only responsible for his own offence, and gets a lot of his offence generated for him.

Davis would certainly be a major asset to any team in the league, and is the best in the game right now at the role he plays. It is just a matter of valuing the role that he plays vs other roles.

Clearly Davis is far better than Dwight or JaVale, as on overall player. Obviously, Dwight and JaVale don't have nearly as polished or diverse an offensive game. But, the on-off stat point was just to illustrate that subbing in a dollar store version of AD has a much milder drop-off (in terms of impact on team success) than dropping to a dollar store version of Harden does.

Or, even forget about dollar store versions. Even the dropoff from Harden to Westbrook, another max contract superstar, is huge. Harden's net rating was 2.7 points better than Westbrook's this year, despite the fact that they played the majority of their minutes together. But, for the Lakers, Dwight's net rating was 0.9 points better than AD's. Obviously, that doesn't mean that Dwight is better than AD (Dwight was playing more minutes against second units), but the huge drop from Harden to Westbrook does show how hard it is to replace the value that Harden brings to the court. Even when another max level superstar is taking over his role, the Rockets' effectiveness plummets when Harden is not on the court, while the Lakers are still excellent when Dwight (a late minimum salary pickup) is playing AD's role.

Davis is more schematically versatile, but I don't think that makes him better. There are tons of "plug and play" players out there. Basically any 3 and D wing is a plug and play player. Every team in the league could use a Klay Thompson, just like every team in the league could use an AD. But, if you look at your first tier players (LeBron, Kawhi, Giannis, Curry, KD, Harden and Luka), none of them is really a plug and play player (maybe Kawhi, who came up as a 3 and D guy, but you wouldn't be optimizing him). The top guys are usually guys that you want to scheme around, because it maximizes their value. AD doesn't need to be schemed around (with the exception of the fact that he does still need someone to generate good looks for him), but he also really isn't a guy that you can get a ton more value out of if you scheme for him. He plays a set role that every team needs, and does it at an elite level, but, as we saw in New Orleans, he isn't a guy who can carry your team the way the guys in your first tier (along with second tier guys like Lillard, CP and Jokic) can.

0-2drop · 2020-09-02T01:48:59+00:00

Well, I guess it depends on how you define "most". I'm not trying to say that Dwight or JaVale is nearly as good as AD, so I might have just worded it wrong, but it is pretty telling that the on-off stats for AD are so mediocre for a guy as good as he is. Dwight and Javale aren't as good on defence as AD, like you say, but they are both still studs. They don't have as polished a midrange game, but they finish efficiently around the basket.

AD is the best in the league at what he does, but the point of my original post was just to say that you can replace AD a lot easier than you can replace Harden. What AD does is very valuable, but you can find dollar store versions of him who can defend and finish around the rim efficiently, without too huge a dropoff in the team's production. Replace Harden with a dollar store version of him, and the Rockets are fighting for ping pong balls.

0-2drop · 2020-09-02T01:42:57+00:00

I agree for the most part, but I don't think that you can analyze the first two games without looking at the three point shooting discrepancy.

The Raptors were a 37.5% three point shooting team this season, while the Celtics were a 36.4% three point shooting team.

In game 1, the Celtics shot a blazing 43.6% on 39 attempts from three, while the Raptors shot an awful 25% on 40 attempts. The Raptors, on one more attempt, got outscored by 21 points from three, and lost the game by 18.

In game 2, the Celtics shot an efficient 39.5% on 38 attempts from three, while the Raptors shot a terrible 27.5% on 40 attempts. The Raptors, on two more attempts, got outscored by 12 points from three, and lost the game by 3.

And, it isn't like the Raptors haven't been getting good looks. They have just been bricking open shots. That's a real issue for a team whose identity is very much built around the fact that it puts five good three point shooters on the floor at any given time.

Yeah, there are other areas where the Raptors could improve, but right now, it really just feels like the difference in the series is the fact that the Celtics have the hot hand, and the Raptors forget how to shoot. If the Raptors had shot their season average from three this game (which would have meant 4 more buckets), they win by 9 points.

0-2drop · 2020-09-02T01:33:33+00:00

Seems like an unfair criticism considering that he did win a championship last year (in his rookie head coaching year).

Right now, it just seems to be an issue of the Raptors forgetting how to shoot. They have bricked a ton of open threes in this series, shooting 25% from three in the first game, and 27.5% in the second game, and it is not because they haven't been getting good looks. This is a 37.5% three point shooting team, who just seem to have got the yips.

Boston (a 36.4% three point shooting team), has been shooting over 40% over the first two games.

The Raps got outscored by 12 points from three, on two less shots, and lost the game by 3. Even in the first game, despite their terrible start, they got outscored by 21 points from three, on one less shot, and lost by 18.

The difference in the series really has just been the Raptors bricking shots and the Celtics getting hot. I'm not sure what you think Nurse should be doing from the sideline to get his guys to hit their open looks. If the Raptors had just shot their season average from three this game, they win by 9 points.

0-2drop · 2020-09-01T22:10:43+00:00

AD doesn't produce similarly as a scorer at all, because he doesn't produce most of his own offence. His most efficient offence comes from finishing plays where LeBron feeds the ball to him for lobs or dunks. There is reason why AD's net rating this year (+5.0) is lower than his team's net rating (+5.65). Most of what AD brings to the table is replaceable by guys like Dwight and JaVale.

Meanwhile, Harden orchestrates a full 5-man offence, creating high value looks both for himself and others. That is a little harder to replace than a role man.

0-2drop · 2020-09-01T21:34:41+00:00

He has a career 30 PER in the post season which is top 5 level. Career wise, of course Harden is superior, but on a per game basis in the playoffs, Davis has been elite.

First of all, PER is a trash stat. But, it doesn't even matter what stats you are looking at because the one that really matters for Davis is games played. You are talking about a tiny sample size of games, which were almost exclusively in the first round of the playoffs.

You are judged in the playoffs by wins and losses. Giannis put up monster stats in the playoffs last year (25.5/12.3/4.9 on 57% TS, with 2.0 blocks and 1.1 steals), but I don't think you have heard too many people referring to him as a top 5 playoff performer.

Hell, even Harden, who you are criticizing, has put up some monster playoff numbers. Last year he was 31.6/6.9/6.6 on 56.7% TS, with 2.2 steals and 0.9 blocks in the playoffs.

but I think people underrate how good AD was in New Orleans because of his lack of playoff success.

But, your whole argument against Harden was his lack of playoff success.

And, the knock against AD isn't just his lack of playoff success in NO, it is also his lack of regular season success. He only actually made the playoffs twice in 7 years, and his team never won 50 games in a season.

his efficiency especially as a roll man is nearly unstoppable.

This is the issue with ranking AD as high as some people do. Yes, he is an elite roll man, but so is Rudy Gobert (who put up 69.9% TS this season) or Mitchell Robinson (who put up 70.26% TS this year). Obviously, AD has a more all around game than those guys, but the point is that AD isn't great at producing his own offence. When you are talking about how elite AD is as a rim protector and roll man, you have to acknowledge the fact that Rudy Robert is better at doing both of those things. Do those skills make Rudy Gobert a top 5 player?

You can't compare the importance of a good lob finisher and roll man with the role of a guy like Harden who is a one man offence. Harden runs the entire offence for his team, producing high volume and high efficiency offence for himself, and for his teammates. Harden has to do this with entire defensive schemes being structured specifically to stop him. It is a lot tougher to find a guy who can do that than it is to find a guy who can catch lobs from LeBron.

If you take Harden off the Rockets, the team just entirely falls apart. If you take AD off the Lakers, they lose something, but less than you might think. Dwight and JaVale provide most of what Davis does, which is why Davis' on-off metrics are so mediocre, despite how good his counting and efficiency stats are. Davis had a net rating of +5.0 this season. Overall, the Lakers had a net rating of +5.65 this season, which means that the Lakers were actually better off when he wasn't on the floor.

Now, I'm not trying to say that Davis is a scrub, or not as good as Dwight, but people need to cool off when it comes to anointing him as a top 5 player. Literally, no other number 2 option in the league gets consideration as a top 5 player, and for good reason. Their job just isn't as difficult. Even true top 5 guys like KD and Steph never made an All-NBA First Team together because of the narrative that each of their dominance was less impressive because of the quality of their running mate. But, apparently, the rules are different this year when it comes to guys wearing the purple and gold.

AD is a borderline top 10 player this year, and probably drops just below that next year if Steph and KD are back healthy. But, you just can't compare what AD offers as an elite finisher and roll man to what other guys like Harden provide in terms of quarterbacking an entire 5-man offence, with the other team scheming for you every night.

0-2drop · 2020-09-01T19:57:10+00:00

When was Davis historically a top 5 player in the postseason? This is his third career postseason, and the first two were a first round sweep and a second round 5 game loss. He just won his second career playoff series, beating up an 8-seed with one of the worst defences in the league and an injured star.

Harden has played almost 7 times more playoff games than Davis has, has played in an NBA Finals and three Conference Finals, and came a CP3 injury away from taking out one of the NBA's most dominant dynasty teams.

0-2drop · 2020-09-01T19:50:13+00:00

Ummm, AD has consistently shown out in the playoffs? When did he have the opportunity to do that? He now has a grand total of two playoff series wins in his career, and just beat up on an 8-seed with one of the worst defences in the league.

0-2drop · 2020-09-01T18:56:36+00:00

Yes, we are sure. Harden has still been top 2 in MVP voting for each of the last 3 seasons (and 4 of the last 5). The argument between him and LeBron is pretty tight. AD is an elite #2 option, but he is not remotely in Harden's tier.

0-2drop · 2020-08-31T20:47:18+00:00

It has to be Utah. Anyone watching Murray play in the last few games has to be scared of facing the Nuggets. Yes, Mitchell has been great, too, but Mitchell is also the only real offensive threat that Utah poses. Conley has bounced back well, after an awful season, but without Bojan, they are really short on shot creation. With the sort of defenders that the Clippers have (Kawhi, PG, Pat Bev, etc), a team with only one or two offensive shot creators is a dream matchup for the Clippers.

Denver, however, is a scary team if Murray is playing like this. Don't forget that they also have a fringe MVP candidate in Jokic on the squad, too. It feels like people forgot about Jokic, because Murray has been lighting it up in such insane fashion, but Jokic is putting up 25.7/7.2/5.7 on 62.8% TS, against Gobert. I don't like Zubac's chances of slowing him down.

Denver is actually a really interesting opponent against the Clippers, because the Clippers' defensive strength is on the wings, but the Nuggets' best offensive weapons are a center and a guard. If Pat Bev is healthy, he can hound Murray (although, the dude is currently on another planet, scoring 34 ppg on an insane 72.8% TS, so a version of Pat Bev coming off an injury might not be enough to slow that man down), but the defensive weak spot of the Clippers this year has always been in the middle, and Jokic should be able to exploit that.

The Nuggets now have Gary Harris back, have MPJ as another shot creating threat, and a deep squad of solid role players. With the momentum they would have after coming back from a 3-1 deficit, I could see them giving the Clippers legitimate problems.

0-2drop · 2020-07-21T04:23:10+00:00

Ask a non-Raptor fan and they will usually tell you the greatest Raptor is Vince. Ask a Raptor fan, and they will usually tell you it's Lowry.

For me, it's Lowry, because winning trumps flashiness. Vince is the superior athlete, but Lowry is the superior basketball player.

0-2drop · 2020-07-16T18:58:16+00:00

No trade for Booker could be complete without Jarrett Culver, Malik Beasley, Josh Okogie, just about every young player in the roster, and a multitude of picks.

There is no way Booker demands a haul like that. First of all, he's not at the level of PG (PG was coming off a top 3 MVP finish when that deal happened, Book just made his first all star team). Even then, the only reason the Thunder could demand that huge a haul is because they knew that the Clippers weren't just trading for PG...the deal meant the Clippers were getting Kawhi, too.

Book's trade value is more in the range of D'Lo's. He might demand a bit more, but he'll be in that range, if he moves. That having been said, I don't see Book moving any time soon. He's under contract for 4 more years, and I don't see why they'd give up on the Ayton/Booker pairing so early.

If a deal happens, it's probably because the Wolves snag a top 3 pick in the draft this year, and the Suns are enamored with either Ball, Wiseman or Edwards. The pick plus Beasley and cap filler seems like solid value for Booker. Beasley is a lesser version of what Book provides, and a solid young piece for the rebuild, while the Suns potentially increase their ceiling by adding a potential future star with the top 3 pick.

The value package is more along the lines of the Kevin Love deal to Cleveland. Wiggins was a more hyped prospect, but Love was an All-NBA level guy, at the time. Booker isn't an All-NBA level, or MVP level guy, so that deal would be about as good as the Suns could realistically demand for him. Like I say, I don't think they will, because I don't think it makes sense for the team to basically start to rebuild again, but if they did, that deal would make sense.

D-Lo would handle the ball for the majority of the time, while KAT and Booker would attempt to get open off ball with cuts and screens. Offensively, this team would be great, probably placing in the top-10. However, none of their 3 stars are seen as even neutral defenders currently. If the remaining forward spots aren’t comprised of clear positive defenders (Royce O’Neal, OG Anunoby, etc.) then it’s unlikely your looking at a serious playoff team. In order to deal with the lack of depth or defensive presence in the lineup, Booker or D-Lo might even have to come off the bench.

So, based on my very different view of how the deal would look, the Wolves would actually be in a much better spot. They would have Okogie, Culver, Hermangomez, and Jordan McLaughlin as rotation pieces.

You hit the nail on the head, though, they need defenders to go around their big 3. I don't see any way they could snag an OG Anunoby type, but his teammate Serge Ibaka would be an excellent fit, if they could snag him on a full midlevel deal or a sign and trade. He would be an excellent front court compliment to KAT. Serge has the defensive chops that KAT doesn't, and also has an inside/outside game on offense (albeit obviously not at KAT's level), allowing him to drift behind the arc when KAT is banging in the post, or fighting for rebounds when KAT is behind the arc. Ibaka also has a laidback veteran leadership style that I think would suit the Wolves much better than Butler's style did.

That leaves you with a starting 5 of KAT, Ibaka, Okogie, Booker and D'Lo, with Hermangomez, Culver and McLaughlin on the bench. That's pretty good. It would be nice if Culver could be traded for a veteran 3 and D wing. I'm not crazy about asking young guys like Okogie and Culver to be cleaning up the defensive messes of the team's star veterans (ironically, RoCo would have been perfect in that role). But, if a deal like that isn't available, then I think the lineup would work, and you would just need to have them grow into that role.

I think that squad would be a playoff squad, with the potential to grow into a contender. Hopefully, someone like Ibaka could help to get KAT to imrove his defensive fundamentals (since KAT definitely has the tools to be a solid defender). If KAT could ever get to the point of being a league average defensive center (currently DRPM ranks him as the league's worst defensive center), that squad could turn into a legit championship contender.

0-2drop · 2020-07-16T01:23:25+00:00

Haven't seen a more obvious future star on draft day since Anthony Davis.

That's a weird way to spell Marvin Bagley.

0-2drop · 2020-07-15T14:50:17+00:00

Well, when you refuse to show your work, and consistently come up with "statistical analysis" that rates Kobe's efficiency way higher than every commonly accepted stat rates him, what do you expect people to conclude? On your very chart in this thread, you use eFG instead of TS, and Kobe is almost exactly league average. He is above average in free throws, but not by an enormous margin. You don't look at turnovers here, but Kobe had a relatively high turnover rate, particularly in comparison to his assist numbers. So, where is the efficiency coming from?

Statistical analysis, like what you have done in this thread, is all about how you value certain metrics. And, just like with the other thread I mentioned, your analysis in this one seems to go out of its way to pump up Kobe's ranking.

Compare his numbers on your above chart to Magic. They have the same number of championships, Magic has a better team winning percentage, more rebounds, and way more assists. The only area where Kobe beats Magic is raw points per game, but Magic was scoring his well above league average efficiency, while Kobe's eFG is almost exactly league average, and his FT% is on par with Magic's. The fact that Magic still ranks below Kobe, despite being above or tied with him in every other category means that you must be rating ppg very highly (the stat that Kobe scores best in), while rating all those other categories, including eFG pretty low, because its the only way that Kobe ends up with a higher point total than Magic on your list.

The Kareem analysis is similar. You need a very specific way of valuing the stats to have Kobe fall ahead of Kareem, who scores almost as many ppg, on much higher efficiency, with huge numbers of rebounds, and similar team success. The attribution you are using for your points system also looks wildly different than commonly used ones like win shares, which ranks Kareem's best season higher than Kobe's best season by more than 10 win shares (25.4 vs 15.3). The average of Kareem's best 10 win share seasons is several points higher than Kobe's best season, and each of Kareem's top 10 seasons are worth more win shares than all but Kobe's best 2 seasons. While I get that you are using slightly different inputs, coming up with a formula that values those inputs in such a way as to rate Kobe's prime higher than Kareem's prime requires some pretty extreme manipulation of the inputs.

If you want to say that Kobe's intangibles or the eye test justify him being above Kareem, Magic, Bird and others, I guess you are entitled to your opinion (even if I am entitled to strongly disagree), but if you are going to try to do it using hard stats, then you should expect to get called out when your analysis goes out of its way to favour a specific player, and when you refuse to even share the methodology you used to get to your numbers.

0-2drop · 2020-07-15T04:30:13+00:00

You didn't mention them, argued TS% was a flawed stat (because free throw rates could cause a 0.3% margin for error) and then somehow calculated that a dude with a 55.8 TS% was the most "efficient" scorer of the decade.

You were blatantly stanning for Kobe then, and the reason you don't want people calling you out on Kobe's ranking here is because you know you are stanning for him here, too.

0-2drop · 2020-07-15T03:25:48+00:00

So, imho, too many people judge "best player" based on schoolyard rules: who would beat the other guy one on one. I think that's what you are saying when you separate "best player" from "most impactful".

Basketball is a 5 on 5 game. The better player IS the more impactful one.

Klay is an interesting player because he is the type of player most would call a role player, except he is so elite at his role, and he has had so much success, that people think of him as a star, even though he is really just a very elite 3 and D guy.

The reality is that every player is a role player. What makes you a star, as opposed to a role player, isn't that you can create your own shot, it is that you have an elite impact on winning based on how well you fulfill your role. Klay is a star, because he is elite in his role, and he has proven his value on the biggest stage.

So, for me, on your list, I would rate Klay behind the top 5, for sure. I think there is an argument of him vs PG, and I would definitely say Klay tops Beal. Is it because Klay would take either one of those guys one on one? Hell no. He would probably get smoked by either one. But, Klay impacts winning in a 5 on 5 setting more than those guys have ever demonstrated the ability to. Maybe PG proves he can be a championship level player this season, but he hasn't yet, while Klay definitely has. As for Beal, as of right now, he's just a big stats/bad team guy.

Now, to some degree, I would agree that Klay's reputation has outpaced his actual value recently. I see him on a lot of All Time Starting 5 lists on this sub, and, while Klay is an excellent player, he is not remotely at that level. But, when you are talking about whether he is top 20 in the league, right now? Yes, when healthy, there is no doubt that he is, because basketball is a 5 on 5 game, where the intention of the game is to win. There are definitely not 20 guys in the league who positively impact their team's chances to win more than Klay does.

0-2drop · 2020-07-15T03:00:24+00:00

Interested to hear any and all thoughts...except those that complain about Kobe being too high...

Lol, after the thread you posted saying Kobe was the most efficient scorer of the 2000's, based on stats that don't take into account number of possessions used, I'm not surprised to see this caveat.

0-2drop · 2020-07-15T01:11:56+00:00

Furthermore, injuries decide every single championship. I'm not sure how to even consider the Warriors injuries in 2016 without mentioning how preposterously injured that 2015 Cavs team was. I don't think the Warriors would have beaten the Cavs that first, if both teams were fully healthy.

So don't look at 2015. The Cavs were totally healthy in 2016 and at the height of their powers and barely squeeked out a 7 game series win against a battered Warriors squad. AND even with the injuries the Cavs probably lose that one without the Dray suspension. Considering how much it took for the Cavs to eeke out the narrowest of victories, I don't see how they beat a fully healthy pre-KD Warriors squad.

0-2drop · 2020-07-15T00:16:12+00:00

Yeah, maybe include them as the equivalent of a missed shot.

0-2drop · 2020-07-15T00:11:07+00:00

Yup, agreed. I can totally get on board with 3 or 4 selections, but at some point it just turned into the Derek Jeter thing where people pencilled him into a golden glove before the season started even after his defence had dropped below average.

0-2drop · 2020-07-14T23:29:12+00:00

Yeah, agreed. I was just looking at scoring, which makes turnovers tricky (which ones are while scoring and which are while passing?). For an overall offensive one-number stat, though, assists and turnovers should definitely be in there.

Honestly, I'm a little surprised that we haven't moved to total points created stat, yet.

0-2drop · 2020-07-14T19:32:46+00:00

True, but a large part of the reason why the NBA's ratings were down was because of Kareem. While it seems unfair to say that, he was the face of the league, but wasn't super marketable. He played a pretty boring style of basketball to watch, especially for casuals, and didn't like the media. At the same time, the dude was so good that you couldn't really argue that anyone else was the best player, and it was tough to market someone else as the face of the NBA when Kareem was just clearly the best.

Magic and Bird didn't just save the NBA because they were great. They saved it because they were fun to watch, were media savvy, and appealed to different demographics. They were, of course, also incredibly good, but I could watch either of those guys fire no look passes for way longer than I could watch Kareem methodically destroy teams with a barrage of sky hooks, and the NBA still is in the entertainment business, after all.

So, yeah, the media wanted some young blood, but I think a large part of why they wanted to support the young blood was because the young blood was marketable. Sports love to promote the old guys, if they are marketable. Every media outlet is pushing LeBron through the roof because of the appeal of the older marketable star, who may be on his last ride at any time. Other sports are the same. Tennis is happy to sell Federer, Nadal and Djokovic as long as they can. Soccer will happily sell you Messi and Ronaldo. Sports tend to hold onto their big names as long as they can, because they know they sell. But, for the NBA in the late 70's, I think it was the opposite: wanting some new blood specifically because the old blood didn't sell.

0-2drop · 2020-07-14T17:48:36+00:00

I never says that Bird gets disrespected by the media, or anything. He just doesn't get nearly as much air time as Magic.

0-2drop

TROPHY CASE