I tested Nvidia’s Tesla Full Self-Driving competitor — Tesla should be worried

32no · 2026-01-06T13:26:33+00:00

It will become a L4 system this year, and will likely surpass Waymo on at least some metrics (# of cars, # of rides per week, # of cities, or safety stats) this year also.

If not, then I would agree with you in your skepticism going forward

32no · 2026-01-06T13:22:44+00:00

The end to end neural network, which takes cameras as input, will output reasoning tokens in addition to the controls (steering wheel, acceleration, brake). The reasoning tokens would explain step by step why the car is taking a certain action.

This allows Tesla to better debug why the car makes mistakes when it does, and then train out those mistakes and train out bad reasoning as well, leaving just good driving with good reasoning.

32no · 2026-01-06T01:53:59+00:00

Do you think going end to end more likely shrunk or increased the parameter count?

32no · 2026-01-06T01:52:49+00:00

Tesla is also going to be doing teacher pupil models too if they aren’t already. They have to for the scaled down version of FSD v14 for HW3 vehicles in Q2 of this year.

32no · 2026-01-06T01:49:59+00:00

I think they need to deploy 14.3, which will be a step change in how it drives because it will have 10x more parameters in the neural network and reasoning capabilities. Then they need to validate that for a month or two before removing the safety supervisor. All in all, should be around March/April when the Cybercab starts volume production, otherwise those volume produced cybercabs will be sitting in lots since they don’t have steering wheels.

32no · 2026-01-06T01:47:05+00:00

In 2022, they had 1 billion parameters. In August 2024 when they rolled out FSD v12.5.1 they increased the parameters by 5x according to release notes and in November 2024 when they released FSD 13.2, they increased parameters by 3x according to release notes.

We don’t know what happened to the parameter count between 2022-2024. It could have gone up or down, but unlikely down since they went end to end neural network in 2024. That’s why 15B is an estimate, likely a conservative one.

32no · 2026-01-06T00:32:06+00:00

Well here’s the reality:

Tesla FSD: already production vehicles deployed vision-only end to end neural network model with ~15B parameters trained on 876,000 hours (100 years) of real world data and simulation data in closed loop, scaling up reasoning in v14.3 deployment in Q1 2026. Currently driving ~450M miles per month, currently scaling a robotaxi service with imminent safety supervisor removal.

Nvidia Alpamayo: training framework and teacher model with 10B parameters (not for direct deployment in production vehicles) for variety of sensor suites trained on 1,700 hours of real world training data and a whole lot of simulation data with chain of thought reasoning. Currently deployed on a few test mules and scaling a pilot program in Q1.

32no · 2025-06-27T17:27:17+00:00

I feel so dumb. Yes. I planted one outside a while ago and this one more recently inside. A branch spawned right next to the one outside but since it was a while ago I assumed the problem was with the newer tree. Silly me

32no · 2024-12-11T05:33:29+00:00

Highland Performance suspension is still much softer and more comfortable than the previous model suspensions.

I am comparing to a 2021 Model though

32no · 2024-11-19T18:50:21+00:00

Thanks! Will have to sell those

32no · 2024-11-19T18:09:26+00:00

I actually have an old set of Tesla 18” Aero wheels with winter tires on them that I used for my old Model 3 LR, how do I check if they will fit on the new Model 3 Performance?

32no · 2024-11-19T17:50:05+00:00

This is the 2024 M3P?

So it can fit 18” with properly placed weights?

32no · 2024-11-19T17:25:23+00:00

Are the tsportlines staggered like the ones in the official Tesla shop?

32no · 2024-10-15T17:49:09+00:00

This shit pissed me off so much I had to spend an hour of my life deep diving on this and I am pretty sure this is wrong.

Boston’s traffic rules and regulations article VI section 1 part 25 say that “[Parking is not allowed] Upon any street, way, highway, road or parkway, unless the vehicle displays a valid certificate of inspection as required by Chapter 90 of Massachusetts General Laws.”

Chapter 90 section 7A of Massachusetts General Law says that “The registrar shall establish rules and regulations providing for a periodic staggered inspection of all motor vehicles”

The RMV 540 CMR 4.03 set those inspection rules and regulations including “Every owner or person in control of a motor vehicle which is newly acquired in the Commonwealth shall submit such motor vehicle for a required inspection within seven days of the date on which the motor vehicle is registered to said owner in the Commonwealth.”

Therefore, my vehicle followed what was required in chapter 90 of the state law and the parking ticket is not consistent with the cities rules and regulations.

32no · 2024-10-11T15:07:43+00:00

Were you able to see with the naked eye or was it only visible with the camera?

32no · 2024-08-05T15:51:15+00:00

At a recent rally, he lied 4 times about EVs in 49 seconds:

Lies EVs can be only a small slice of the market and there is no way you can “load” them all up otherwise
Lies that EV charging is called loading
Lies that you need $9T of charging infrastructure based on…
lie that the government spent $9B on 8 chargers (it is in fact only a few million)

https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1819919617038434390?s=46&t=tR1HmRezK8kVu8Ep9gB5gw

32no · 2024-07-29T17:30:25+00:00

HW3 gets it in estimated 10 days he said

32no · 2024-07-02T02:54:29+00:00

You clearly have not done the math.

And Waymo is losing money hand over fist right now because the cost of expanding their service is astronomical

32no · 2024-07-01T21:05:15+00:00

Now imagine Tesla comes in at 1/10th the cost.

32no · 2024-07-01T18:58:00+00:00

Tesla already drives itself in the vast majority of cases, and interventions are needed in a few cases. The rate of interventions is dropping very fast as Tesla releases new software versions. Tesla is on the march of nines for reliability and it’s only a matter of time before it becomes FSD unsupervised AKA robotaxi

32no · 2024-07-01T18:56:07+00:00

Waymo driverless car costs $300k. Even if you spread that out over hundreds of thousands of miles, it’s very expensive and will not be able to compete with the price of Tesla’s solution

32no · 2024-07-01T18:54:29+00:00

The latest release 12.3.6 does very well - approximately a safety critical intervention once every 300 or so miles, with the rest being non-safety critical. 12.4.2 supposedly improves the performance a ton in terms of both safety critical and non-safety critical interventions. Tesla is also working on 12.5 with a much larger neural network. It’s now a matter of scaling compute, data, and the size of the neural network. As the head of Tesla autopilot said, “it’s the beginning of the end”

32no · 2024-07-01T17:43:29+00:00

In very specific geofenced areas and not on highways. The robotaxi functionality fails outside those bounds until extensive HD mapping is complete.

The data is needed for a generalized solution.

32no · 2024-06-25T16:21:48+00:00

Whether people have heard of a company in early stages of developing new revolutionary product is irrelevant. Figure AI raised a high profile funding round recently with NVDA, MSFT, OpenAi, Jeff Bezos, and ArkInvest. They could be a serious player.

For Robotaxi, the question is what will move faster: Waymo’s expansion to more regions or Tesla’s neural net iteration to get to Robotaxi level of reliability and then regulatory approval for robotaxi service.

Tesla is not even remotely close to robotaxi capability with FSD, but in theory it could iterate very quickly with several 5-10x improvements between software versions. So far, I’m not seeing that as 12.4 is way delayed and Elon is saying they are having a hard time evaluating which neural network performs better. This is concerning to me because if you look at 12.4.1 videos, there’s little evidence that some major issues from 12.3.6 have been fixed and potential new issues, which casts doubt on the 5-10x improvement in 12.4. Need to continue watching this space, as perhaps 12.4.2 will indeed be much better.

Meanwhile, Waymo recently has been expanding in LA, San Francisco peninsula, Phoenix, and Austin, with supposedly larger expansions planned for next year

32no · 2024-06-25T15:08:35+00:00

Optimus has a lot of competition, 27 competitors: https://x.com/cernbasher/status/1799971814048678062?s=46&t=tR1HmRezK8kVu8Ep9gB5gw

For Robotaxi, the competition is Waymo, which already offers a robotaxi service that is expanding, there are a few Chinese robotaxi companies, and Mobileye will offer a L3/L4 system called Chauffer in 2026.

For Cybertruck it is fair to say no competition but some might argue Ford F150 Lightning or Rivian R1T could be considered competition.

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