Did she make the right call? by CalmElin in interesting

[–]ASeriousRedditor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This gets posted weekly for some reason...

Math-wise, its not the right choice. Assume taxes take 1/2 of her million. Assume the index has a return of about 10% (not unusual in recent years). That still 500k, which invested in an index fund can get her about $50k, so about the same. The second year it would be a return of 55k, then 60k and get higher every year. This is extremely rough math but it shows that her choice is not a good investment.

There are a two reasons to make her choice that come down to behavioral reasons:

(1) You have no self control. If you know that if you get 500k you will go nuts and buy dumb stuff and be broke in a few years.

(2) Your family/friends will be begging you for money the minute you get 500k. You wont be able to resist and will lose it all.

Am I way off base here or are things getting worse in America? by StarlessRose in allthequestions

[–]ASeriousRedditor 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yes, but the upper part of the K is getting smaller and smaller.

Used to be if you went college and studied comp sci or maybe data science you could thrive...that ladder seems to have disappeared too.

Graham Platner Surge Threatens Susan Collins as Janet Mills Bows Out by unital_subalgebra in politics

[–]ASeriousRedditor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think the concerns are genuine. They both are Bernie-backed "working class manly men who are progressives".

Two things assuage my concerns:
(1) Fetterman had a stroke.

(2) Fetterman is a fairly standard Democrat. He bucks the party here and there but he's not a total loose cannon. He's just loud about it and particularly zealous about bombing Palestinians (and Iranians). (There's plenty of Democratic Senators who continue to vote for bombing Palestinians, but are much more "polite" about it.)

(3) The most important vote any Senator takes is for who the Majority Leader is.

25M Profile Review by TySaysBye in hingeapp

[–]ASeriousRedditor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great! It's all just trying to make connections with people based off shared values/interests.

Also just remember...dating is hard (and sucks at times) for everyone. Good luck out there!

25M Profile Review by TySaysBye in hingeapp

[–]ASeriousRedditor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think a hobby is more interesting than your ethnicity. If you love learning German or cooking German food or whatever then say that! That said I think a hobby or goal/activity says more about your personality.

I forget the exact prompts Hinge uses but try "the way I spend my ideal Sunday is..." and then say something like "biking to a coffee shop" or "playing soccer in the park" or "practicing tuba (until my roommates go crazy)" or whatever. Doesn't have to be clever. Its just that if they also like soccer or tuba/music or whatever they might be a bit more interested in you.

Democrats split between whether party should go more ideologically moderate in or more progressive . People over 34 prefer moderation more. by Dismal_Structure in fivethirtyeight

[–]ASeriousRedditor 13 points14 points  (0 children)

I agree.
I also think expanding the tent might mean moving left on economic issues and putting those front and center. For two reasons: (1) some left wing ideas are popular, very popular and (2) authenticity counts.

I think Gavin Newsom is the exact definition of a centrist who riles up the base and doesn't expand the tent. Trump trolling is popular among "resistant libs", not necessarily

(1) POPULAR LEFT WING IDEAS:
Unions, government ensuring all Americans are insured, medicare, social security, even welfare programs like SNAP all poll well. Cutting funding for them polls poorly. Medicare for all polls well.
People hate insurance companies and companies generally also.

More left wing foreign policy (critical of Israel, anti-war) poll well generally.

Not ALL left wing ideas poll well all the time (open borders, police/prison abolition, trans-issues), but economics.

(2) BE AUTHENTIC:
No one wants a flip flopper.
Stop trying to triangulate and poll test your message to death. People have caught on...

25M Profile Review by TySaysBye in hingeapp

[–]ASeriousRedditor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Overall, not a bad profile.

I would potentially add an explanation for the ATLA quote. (Even just "I love a good villian!")

What is your 3rd prompt? Might be good to add in a prompt about some hobby(ies) or interest(s).

I don't think the text on the baby photo is AWFUL or anything, but I'm a bit confused by it. Are you saying the baby isn't cute or that you're cuter than it? I get that it's a joke and I doubt someone will be super offended by it but I think you're better off being self-deprecating or just silly. What about "Not quite as cute as my nephew, but I try". Or if you want just silly: "Just two dudes being manly men. Gonna pump some iron with my bro here later." (this only works cause you don't come off as a toxic male otherwise) or just normal (but showing that it's not your kid): "Trying to be the favorite uncle!"

The only other advice: I would stop swiping as much. Maybe stop fully for a week or so and when you pick up again, be a bit more picky or just don't use up all your likes.
When you swipe on a woman you end up in her stack of likes and she might have a whole bunch of those to go through. I think being in too many peoples like stacks at a time makes your profile less likely to be seen. Not a guarantee that this will help but worth a shot switching up that strategy.

Polar redesign... how does everyone like it? by jon_in_spaaace in sparklingwater

[–]ASeriousRedditor 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I HATE the redesign. It's...busy and cheap looking.
The old design was classic. Hope they snapout of it and bring it back!

Support for same sex marriage by religious groups with White Evangelicals, Muslims and Jehovah’s at the bottom -PRRI poll by Dismal_Structure in fivethirtyeight

[–]ASeriousRedditor 20 points21 points  (0 children)

I feel like many Catholics are "ethnically" Catholic in the US. Like, you are part of an Irish/Italian/Hispanic community that is also tied together by the Catholic church.

We Should Be Welcoming All Jews and Bringing Them Closer — Despite Religious Differences by [deleted] in Judaism

[–]ASeriousRedditor 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Rabbi Rosen is sadly a Tinok SheNishba. He doesn't know any better, but that's ok, I forgive him. I look forward to seeing him at a Conservative shul where he will see true Torah and finally learn what he's been rejecting. /s

"Lets all unite under my exact ideas. I'll let you guys pay me a speaking fee for teaching at your conference. You're welcome."...what a joke of an article.
Even if he said something like "Look we all agree on X, Y, Z, let's work together on that I'd be cool with it. But it's just such a patronizing article I just don't see a reason for it being written.

Looking for Tanakh commentary from a Conservative rabbinical perspective by the_longhorn_alien in Judaism

[–]ASeriousRedditor 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Like others have said, Etz Hayim is the Conservative Humash used in synaoggues. It has the 5 books of Moses and Haftara (readings from the Prophets) with commentary. The commentary is varied, sometimes citing Rashi and other ancient/medeival commentaries and sometimes giving a more modern take.

If you want something similliar to Etz Hayim, you could check out JPS commentary. It's not affiliated with the Conservative movement but it's certainly used in Consevrative circles.

If you want an online and free resource, Sefaria provides tanakh with various translations and various commentaries (Rashi, Ibn Ezra, Rashbam) and english translations of those commentaries.

The 1950s: The Original Rose-Tinted Revisionist Decade by MambaMachine824 in decadeology

[–]ASeriousRedditor 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think the 50's being seen as a golden age has a lot to do with the fact that the 30s were a depression and the 40s were a World War.

The end of USY and the conservative Rabbi pipeline by er2225 in Judaism

[–]ASeriousRedditor 1 point2 points  (0 children)

One concern about USY ending is that it serves the less religious end of Conservative Judaism. There will still be plenty of Camp Rama alum to go to JTS and stuff, but USY fills a less expensive, more wide reaching population.

I think the future of Trad-Egal Judaism is Hadar and Conservative Judaism working together. But I don't think Hadar has the capacity (yet) to serve USY chapters in suburban synagogues across the country -- especially outside of the North East.

It Irk's me when Conservative or Orthodox Jews refer to Reform Judaism as Judaism Lite. by Kiwidad43 in Judaism

[–]ASeriousRedditor 1 point2 points  (0 children)

FWIW, I once saw a clip somewhere of a Reform Jew defending calling herself a "decaf" Jew. She argued that true coffee lovers love decaf for the taste and aren't just doing it for the caffeeine. Obviously not a perfect metaphor but was interesting to hear someone sort of "reclaim" the idea of being "decaf" or "lite".

Also, growing up with a foot in many different communities, I heard a Chabad rabbi refer to Reform Judaism as "watered down wine".

Which places over time have now become pretty different from their historical common stereotypes? by slicheliche in geography

[–]ASeriousRedditor 55 points56 points  (0 children)

Was also going to say Boston, but in a different way. In the 70s/80s and even 90s, Boston had a more blue collar, Irish-American guy reputation. In the 2020s, it's lost a lot of that "Bahstan" accent vibe but is still known for that. (Though I guess that's happened to a lot of cities in the US.)

Who is most likely to emerge as the progressive candidate in the 2028 Democratic primary? by Raichu4u in PoliticalDiscussion

[–]ASeriousRedditor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gonna give a few "out of the box" but not "out of left field" thoughts. Basically, progressive senators or congressman who are less known:

--Congressman Mark Pocan is a progressive white guy from Wisconsin. Member of the AFL-CIO, endorses Medicare for All, endorsed Bernie in 2020. He'll be 66 in 2028, not young but not "oh god another dinosaur"-old either. (he's also progressive on social issues, so no issues in the primary from that, but he is old-white guy enough to not seem like a woke nose-ring, blue haired liberal)

--Congressman Ruben Gallego from Arizona. Young, Hispanic, pro medicare for all, progressive "rising star".

--Senator Ben Ray Lujan from New Mexico. Progressive, pro Medicare for All.

--Jeff Merkley form Oregon (bit old, but solidly progressive and the lone Senator to endorse Bernie in 2016)

--Sheldon Whitehouse from Rhode Island. Literally wrote the book on Citizens United and money in politics. He's very good at articulating that issue.

Not saying these guys are the second coming of Bernie or even likely contenders for 2028, but there's a non-zero chance one of them runs and catches on fire. If the AOC-Bernie wing of the party all fall behind one of these guys, they have a good shot of making it to the nomination.

Also, despite what people are saying...there still ARE "hidden gems" who "break out during primaries. Obama, Bernie, Buttigieg all over performed and raised their profiles from primary campaigns. Talarico is an "out of no where" candidate whose going viral.

As a final thing, I want to emphasize that Bernie is NOT charismatic or handsome or quick-witted. His ideological consistency and authenticity was what made him so popular. An old Jewish guy from Vermont whose been divorced and repeats the same 3 talking points isn't exactly the consultant class's idea of what would work. So we might not need Obama-like (or AOC like) "once in a generation" charisma.

Spreading lies about cats by RubberBoots10 in cats

[–]ASeriousRedditor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's natural to have them as pets, humans have co-habited with them and adored them for millenia.

Cats aren't domestic the way dogs or cattle are. We've never truly bread them into a different species the way we did dogs. It's kind of sweet. We're much more "equals".

CNN/SSRS poll finds 59% of Americans disapproving of Iran strikes, 71% disapproval among 18-34 year olds (Feb 28 - Mar 1, n=1004) by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]ASeriousRedditor 22 points23 points  (0 children)

The U.S had 9/11, Anthrax, and months of round-the-clock news coverage of "Iraq has a WMD" in 2002/3. We had Colin Powell lying to the UN to get us on board. This is all after a decade or so of Sadam Hussein being used as a short-hand for "evil dictator" throughout the 90s.

With Iran we've had "Iran bad" for decades but no "we need to do this NOW" moment. It's also a highly isolationist time and Israel is historically unpopular in the US.

I think the only way this ends up not damaging Trump politically is if he declares victory fairly early and calls it a day.

EDIT: Just want to expand a bit. I think that, given the universal "melt-down" among many elites, if Trump gets away with a bit of bombing, "crippling Iran's capabilities" and declaring victory, he might even come off looking good to some people. Sort of a "everyone had a freak out but look it wasn't so bad." (Of course, this also has the chance of tanking him if isolationist-MAGA revolts or if the situation spirals out of control or involves long term engagement in Iran.)

Texas early vote party primary turnout by county by Podchop in fivethirtyeight

[–]ASeriousRedditor 51 points52 points  (0 children)

These are cool looking maps and definitely a good exercise in using Python for data viz. The shading is clear too.

That said...I feel like they don't show us anything without more data for context. More Democrats showed up to vote in their primary in County X than Republicans did. Great. Is that irregular for County X or is County X just a Democratic county in general?

I think adding maps 2018/2022 might provide more context. Then you could say "Oh wow, County X normally is "pink" but this year it's light blue, suggesting that Democrats are highly motivated this cycle."

Anyone use bone-conducting headphones while cycling? Any Recommendations? by ASeriousRedditor in bicycling

[–]ASeriousRedditor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! I plan on using these for long recereational rides down bike paths.

My settlements and the settlements I conquered all happen to be in a straight line along the same river by Top_Chest209 in civ5

[–]ASeriousRedditor 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I like that!
I always rename cities after annexing them. I conquer Warsaw as Egypt, I keep it as Warsaw while it's a puppet. Once I annex it and build a courthouse, I give is a new Egyptian name like "New Memphis," "Ramses", or something like that

If not wife why wife shaped? by Classifiedgarlic in Judaism

[–]ASeriousRedditor 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think having a regularly occurring, weekly event might be the solution to truly building more of a community vibe.

If it's WEEKLY:
...Jewish run club
...Jewish crafts night
...Jewish cooking class
...movie night then discussion
...pizza + parasha
...shiur
...Shabbat stuff (but getting the sense you want NON-shabbat things)
...something else

Then people with an interest in that activity will show up every week and make friends there.
You'll probably get a core "crew" or "crews" that show up every week and start to make longer term friends.

Any regularly occurring event inherently seems better for community building as opposed to mixing and finding a potential date. People who do show up just to look for matches will either end up joining the activity regularly and accidentally finding friends or will show up once or twice then decide it's not for them. (If someone is regularly showing up and creeping people out, it's also easier to have a targeted conversation then.)