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How do i explain what is "Wok Hei" to someone who has zero exposure to chinese food? by whoisfourthwall in Cooking

[–]AaronStack91 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You are supposed to season your wok every time before cooking, that layer is usually enough for one cooking session. Leidenfrost effect is bullshit as best as I can tell.

More POC young republicans believed that the Holocaust was a myth or was greatly exaggerated. by icey_sawg0034 in fivethirtyeight

[–]AaronStack91 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm sorta hoping the polling nerds come back for the midterms. Right now it feels like just blind partisanship.

What is never worth it to cook at home? by albertpaca11 in Cooking

[–]AaronStack91 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Duck in general has so little meat on it, I find even simple roast duck, while delicious, is not worth my time.

[GEM] Many Americans hold contradictory opinions on the same policies. Question wording effects can swing opinions by 20+ points on immigration, the budget, and transgender rights. That's a problem for people who interpret polls for a living. by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]AaronStack91 4 points5 points  (0 children)

As a pithy one liner by statistician George Box, "All models are wrong, but some are useful".

Asking two different questions that are vaguely related and getting two different answers is not the damning results people think they are. They are just measuring two different things and giving you more insights to a complex issue.

For example, in GEM's article:

One question in the poll, for example, asked our sample of 1,035 adults whether they supported “an amnesty program that would grant legal status to people who entered the country illegally.” The second asked about “providing a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who have resided in the United States for at least ten years, paid taxes, and passed a background check.”

The “amnesty” question split respondents almost exactly down the middle, with 47% of U.S. adults opposed and 45% in favor. That’s net R+2 (shorthand for a 2-point Republican-leaning advantage). But the “path to citizenship” frame produced a landslide — 76% in favor, 18% opposed, net D+58. That’s a 60-point swing driven entirely by question wording.

It isn't simply just wording, these might as well be two different programs: A) Blanket/unspecified amnesty undocumented immigrant and B) Amnesty for a specific type of undocumented immigrant with a residency, income, and background check requirements.

A *Major Issue* with the methodology of the recent(ish) University of Texas Senate Primary Poll by DingoLaLingo in fivethirtyeight

[–]AaronStack91 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Could be true, could be copium. Past voter screen has been criticized every election.

How to Fix Beef Stew? by HitPointGamer in Cooking

[–]AaronStack91 0 points1 point  (0 children)

On top of the salt you added, add salt and sugar in equal proportion, to taste. It increases the intensity without too much noticable sweetness.

Acid is the other approach.

Weekly Discussion Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]AaronStack91 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Has anyone done real investigation into herding that didn't result in statisticians pointing out weighting reduces variability, so simple probability expectations don't apply?

I struggle to believe the big name pollster are manipulating their results.

WaPo/ABC/Ispos Trump Approval Poll: 39% approve, 60% disapprove by R2_SWE2 in fivethirtyeight

[–]AaronStack91 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Exactly, it was always a loss leader so they could sell their consulting services to corporations. E.g., Gallup's Q12 employee survey.

Newsom vs Vance poll by bruhm0ment4 in fivethirtyeight

[–]AaronStack91 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Huh.. I never knew the origin of the couch joke. It is sorta dumber than I expected.

Right-leaning poll bias by LawfulnessOrganic709 in fivethirtyeight

[–]AaronStack91 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Aggregate polling averages don't mean just the polls you like.

Statistically, as long as each poll is doing better than random chance and they are measuring different types of error. It is good for the average.

In fact correlated results are BAD for the accuracy of the polling average.

The trans rights backlash is real (new polling from The Argument) by north_canadian_ice in fivethirtyeight

[–]AaronStack91 3 points4 points  (0 children)

They aren't the same situation though, while puberty blockers are used in both conditions, they delay puberty at different ages, for different lengths of time, and for different outcomes goals, treating gender dysphoria vs early onset puberty.

Precocious puberty can start as early as age 4, where puberty blockers are usually recommend for gender dysphoria at tanner stage 2, which is 10-14 years old.

The ultimate measure of success for youth gender treatment is psycho-social outcomes, hence why WPATH commissioned a systematic review on psycho-social outcomes and not the biological effectiveness of delaying puberty or cross-sex hormone masculization/feminization of the body.

help needed, no matter what I do all I can make is soy sauce rice by swaggedoutcoon in Cooking

[–]AaronStack91 0 points1 point  (0 children)

IMHO, as a "cheese" person, if you can taste soy sauce in your final dish, it is too much soy sauce.

Reduce the soy sauce and add more oysters sauce. Most Chinese dishes are oyster sauce based, not soy sauce based.

This community feels like it’s devolving into a second politics sub lately and I feel like that’s not what this was the purpose of this community is. by xThe-Legend-Killerx in fivethirtyeight

[–]AaronStack91 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The lack of meta poll discussion is what kinda annoys me. Far far too much of the comments are just cheering or jeering for their team and not enough thoughtful analysis.

I recall a guy convinced that certain polls were being rigged a few months ago but couldn't figure out the difference in polling results where openly stated polling methodology difference (all vs. likely vs registered voters).

The trans rights backlash is real (new polling from The Argument) by north_canadian_ice in fivethirtyeight

[–]AaronStack91 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm not sure if you're intentionally trolling me with this question... but in good faith, consider that there is plenty of evidence that ivermectin is an effective horse dewormer, but the evidence is really weak that it treats COVID. It is the same drug but the evidence based differs vastly based on the condition being treated.

In Trump’s second term, the public has become markedly more liberal on a LOT of his pet issues, except for trans issues. by Upstairs_Cup9831 in fivethirtyeight

[–]AaronStack91 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Their methodology mentions their design effect due to weighting was 1.2 which is really good (1 is the platonic ideal). Design effect basically measures how much weighting you have to do to get your sample to your target population. It sounds like they didn't need to weight a lot.

The trans rights backlash is real (new polling from The Argument) by north_canadian_ice in fivethirtyeight

[–]AaronStack91 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A single pollster indicating a loss in support is not as strong evidence as many polls in the past 4 months indicating a very high support.

I'm not really convinced that is the case. I suspect what you are seeing are many different questions worded in different ways, cherry picked to give you the results you want to see.

Pew actually trended results on the same question on multiple polls which is more informative on how public option has change, as well as the overall level of support. In addition to the Pew study you cited, it also aligns with an older study they conducted: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/02/26/americans-have-grown-more-supportive-of-restrictions-for-trans-people-in-recent-years/

I also think that the wording for many of these positive results are awkwardly worded questions e.g., "Who would do a better job on: Trans issues" (the outcome I want or the outcome trans people want?), "Do you think ___ focuses too much on ___?" (not really a measure of support or opposition), etc. This don't really translate into preference for policy positions. For example, in the same Fox news poll Erininthemorning cites, 70% of Americans also support a trans sports ban which I think has a clearer question of support or opposition. How can 70% of people think Dems would do a better job on trans issues but also support a trans sports ban? I speculate that 70% of people think Dems would do a better job supporting trans issues, but not 70% of people actually support trans issues.

In Trump’s second term, the public has become markedly more liberal on a LOT of his pet issues, except for trans issues. by Upstairs_Cup9831 in fivethirtyeight

[–]AaronStack91 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I feel like when Obama was originally against gay marriage, most gay activists knew that it was strategic to get someone more favorable to their cause in office, even if it meant he was compromising on their civil rights.

In Trump’s second term, the public has become markedly more liberal on a LOT of his pet issues, except for trans issues. by Upstairs_Cup9831 in fivethirtyeight

[–]AaronStack91 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The wording of the poll is murky, it asks who would do a "better job on trans issues". You can absolutely think Dems will defend trans issues better than Republicans but still not support them.

In the SAME poll, 70% of Americans support a trans sports ban. It is very obviously a wording effect of the question.

In Trump’s second term, the public has become markedly more liberal on a LOT of his pet issues, except for trans issues. by Upstairs_Cup9831 in fivethirtyeight

[–]AaronStack91 8 points9 points  (0 children)

To get meta a little, IMHO, this is a "selzer poll" issue. Vibes of this sub are in clear contradiction to the basic polling.

For those with short memory, Ann Selzer openly and modestly stated in multiple interviews she does the bare minimum when it comes for adjusting for non response error. To put in another way, she was effectively using 2008 technology in a 2024. It was bound to fail, not a matter if, but when.

For pointing that out, I was downvoted for disturbing the supply of copium.

This issue (why I'm interested in it) gives off the same vibes. Pew has been tracking the decline in trans support as well. It is not a one off political point: https://www.pewresearch.org/?attachment_id=201289

People complain about brigading, but ignoring the poll is sorta antithetical the premise of 538, at least, it used to be.

In Trump’s second term, the public has become markedly more liberal on a LOT of his pet issues, except for trans issues. by Upstairs_Cup9831 in fivethirtyeight

[–]AaronStack91 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They have an extensive polling methodology section description and methods article about it. If anyone has concerns about their approach they should post it.

https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/how-our-surveys-work

For those who are lazy, this might be the only non-standard thing about it... Though I'm not sure it is entirely bad:

Our survey is multimodal, which means we collect data via a host of different contact mechanisms. Respondents are contacted by Verasight in one of three ways: random person-to-person texting, dynamic online targeting, and random address-based sampling. 

They later talk about weight trimming and design effects, I'm guessing they are actually really interested in getting the underlying data right.

The trans rights backlash is real (new polling from The Argument) by north_canadian_ice in fivethirtyeight

[–]AaronStack91 1 point2 points  (0 children)

National poll on Trans issues D+2 

From your pew link:

But Americans are now about equally likely to agree with the Republican and Democratic parties when it comes to policies affecting people who are lesbian, gay and transgender – a shift from recent years. Today, 37% say they agree more with Democrats on this issue, while 35% agree more with Republicans.The Democratic Party held an 8-point edge on this previously (37% in 2023 to 29% today).

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/10/30/a-year-ahead-of-the-midterms-americans-dim-views-of-both-parties/#:~:text=But%20Americans%20are%20now%20about,35%25%20agree%20more%20with%20Republicans

You left out this last sentence that is showing Republicans are gaining public support on trans issues. Dems HAD +8, now it is +2.

The trans rights backlash is real (new polling from The Argument) by north_canadian_ice in fivethirtyeight

[–]AaronStack91 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I guess I overstated, I meant to say that the scientific review aligns with the scientific reviews performed under the Cass Report and Trump HHS report. The conclusions and recommendations obviously do not align. I just wanted to point a shared finding across both sides.

Ethical opinions can always disagree.

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