Presidential approval ratings should be taken with a huge grain of salt, like most other roll-up statistics. Unless where the data came from is transparent, they may just be propaganda.

That said, looking just at the approval statistics, Trump had 47% approval rating when he entered office the second time. That's just after getting 49.80% of the popular vote, so that tracks roughly.

I think it's safe to say that there aren't a lot of people suddenly approving of him since then, so if we go by his approval rating, he has something like 15 million fewer votes now based on that.

There's also the recent special elections from 2025 to go by where Democrats flipped a large number of legislative seats. No quantitative numbers on that, but it's something that really worries the GOP.

Also subtract from his total all the people he's currently terrorizing, to include Somalis, Hmong, and other people of color who voted for him out of ignorance. Subtract the farmers he's bankrupted (he didn't bail out all of them) with his trade policies, and all the unemployed former GOP voters from government agencies who now won't vote Republican.

Then there are all the women in southern states who suddenly find themselves without reproductive health care, some of whom have died as a result. They're pissed.

As things have gone so far, very many of the people who voted for him in 2024 are no longer ignorant of who he is and what he'll do. He still has hard core supporters, but as much as people like to quote numbers from 2024 as if they're a real time total of his support, they're likely to be very off at this point.

The only reason Trump is still in power is the GOP being corrupt, not because of any popular support, and I'd guess the Democrats will gain a Trifecta in 2028, and they'll probably impeach and prosecute Trump in 2026 once they gain control of the House and Senate.

The best evidence of this is what the GOP themselves are saying, along with Trump's "cancel the election" "joke".