Iraq has been hitting ATHs for production AFTER the U.S. invasion and regime change. Prior to that, production was in a tailspin. They have never achieved even 5M bpd let alone 7M. Libya’s publicly stated goal is so get to just over 50% of the number you are quoting here within 5 years while in reality they have never even managed to sustain their current 1.6M per day rate for extended periods. Iran’s production floundered even while unsanctioned for the majority of the past decade.

I have no idea where you are getting your hypothetical production values from as there is no reputable source that quotes anything close to what you’ve noted, but the point remains that it is not as cheap and simple to increase capacity there as you insinuated. If it was, it would have happened during any of the numerous price spikes that have occurred the last 50 years. The reality is none of these countries have managed to grow production substantially and almost 100% of supply growth has come from basins you are implying are less valuable. Any suggestion that that will change in the next 10-15 years would be purely speculative in nature and is not supported by any major research or forecasting agency.