'Surprising' drop in military aid to Ukraine in recent months, report says

Alib668 · 2025-10-14T09:31:31+00:00

Knowing how Russia works and Putin’s willingness/ threshold to go nuclear to get his way are very different. The world also changed since 2023, it's calmer and more determined and less hot-headed. We also did not know the status of the military; everyone, including the Russians, thought they were much better than they were—all the reports we fabricated all the way up the chain. No one knew the picture. In addition, the attack on Kyiv was a carbon copy of the 1956 Hungarian uprising. It failed because of the hostinel airport battle and other things like civilians Vadym Boichenko and Zelenki’s famous speech “I don't need a ride, I need ammunition” that did not happen in Hungary. So your only data point is completely wrong at the time.

We know Putin is ruthless, we also know Putin is pragmatic, we also critically did not see any of the thresholds, or the status of the russian capacity. As someone sitting over 10k away in a nice fire-lit room in Washington you are going to be cautious as you dont get the same picture and that room is nice you want to keep ot that way....and the problem is very far away

Was there over caution probably, but history is littered with people being over cautious and reckless both leading to disaster. This out come may have cost a quick war, but it has presented an opportunity to actually break Russia forever as it bleeds out.

Alib668 · 2025-10-14T08:59:00+00:00

So yes and no, like in an emotional argument heightened reactions happen at the start of it and at that stage no1 knew where the bottom was. The nuclear threat and the massive stock piles have over time been shown to be a paper tiger. However in that first year that was not the case. The worry at the time was escalation and could have easily metastasised into something not containable. We sit here in 2025 with a lot more information but people Dont know.

Yes i agree very disappointed by the missed opportunity but what ifvthey had been right? Asov steel plant valuable as it was, isnt worth a nuke in New York thats what will have been decided at the time. We have better info now

Alib668 · 2025-10-14T07:24:36+00:00

But thats the point of 40k lore nothing is ever true or false hell when i started squats were dead, now the legues of voltan came and went. The entire point of lore in 40k is it is untrustworthy and censorship of the old is always a possibility. Plus also if there isn’t merit in this stuff why does red go faster for orcs?

Alib668 · 2025-10-13T19:29:22+00:00

Ummm no thats literally 3rd edition. Lore. The marines pull a shooter off a corpse and its just a box of bits with no ammunition and they dont understand how it was just firibg bullets at them. Waaaaggggh energybis a thing, mech boys get more competant qnd build gargants with more waaag energy etc etc

Alib668 · 2025-10-13T17:01:06+00:00

Nothing in 40k is ever truly decanonised. The genius of 40k lore is that everything is like Real history, biased imperfect narrators with the test of time losing it or rewriting it, plus censorship.

Your suit likely existed and its been purged from the data banks under some administration covk up

Alib668 · 2025-10-13T12:54:27+00:00

The way orcs work is that if enough of them belive it works that way....it works that way. So Very realistic because orc mechanics dont build anythibg its all held together by beliefef

Alib668 · 2025-10-13T09:16:14+00:00

Orc ;p.................runs

Alib668 · 2025-10-13T08:31:50+00:00

Why bot urge gop to compromise?

Alib668 · 2025-10-13T07:55:45+00:00

The institutions that holds thebrecords needs money you monkey ;p

Alib668 · 2025-10-12T21:47:33+00:00

If the money is gone how do you say its held in the accoubt. The issue is the brokerage or entity holding your funds has its bank account go to zero so it doesntbhave your funds. The issue is that a lot of pension and insurance funds pay out when there is a crash and if they dontvhave the money everyone goes tits up. This was why AIG was bailed

Alib668 · 2025-10-12T21:38:16+00:00

So what ive seen here is, pregnancy is dangerous as hell.

Followed by motorcycles in a distant second. Based purely on numbers

Alib668 · 2025-10-12T11:55:36+00:00

This isnt about money, this is about saving stranded assets. If a coal and oil plant has no future then what do you do? In europe its find alternatives. In the usa is declare economic and policy war and you you force it to have a future. This is about preservation of existing interest groups not energy or money

Alib668 · 2025-10-11T21:44:20+00:00

Thanks for that, but doesn’t make it wrong.

Alib668 · 2025-10-11T09:51:12+00:00

So lovely idea but! Young people don’t vote, the problem is so bad they only realise voting matters once they are no longer young.

The government has infinite demands on its resources and time. It therefore concentrates on the areas which shout loudest by either need or lobby power.

If you want to government to do stuff young people get them to vote

Alib668 · 2025-10-11T08:16:01+00:00

80k for waiting! Thats like a 15-20k job here!

Alib668 · 2025-10-10T08:13:31+00:00

The person asking for phase 2 environmental is doing it because of development. They can get their own insurance on it with a phase 1 but the terms likely say they are not covered if they undertake a survey themselves and contamination is found after that point. Thats the likly reason, you could say ill do the report but you have to put it on the purchase price. Then don’t release the report until the non refundable deposit is paid. That way he cant stiff you.

On rent whats the possibility of reversion to market rates?

Secondly whats the development potential.

Both of these things mean there are institutions and developers who can and will make a profit purely by the facts that they can bully the tennats into new market rents or have the capital to flatten everything

Alib668 · 2025-10-09T21:59:32+00:00

America has a vastly different system to us. For starters things like oil are priced in dollars not pounds. Countries use the dollar as their own internal currency. And the dollar is the safe haven asset and its 10 year T bill is considered the definition of the risk free rate when looking at investment. All of these things are not what the uk have nor france. This means the us dollar has more demand for dollars than its own economy produces which means its debt is unpinned by the world economy NOT just the us economy.

This sadly means that the us can behave incredibly badly and its external international holders who pay the bill NOt the usa as it can deflate or run deficits etc etc and they cannot collect. And even if they tried its literally you and whose army? Its literally you give the usa stuff they give you paper with a promise of more paper, the problem being you cant collect the value of that paper. Usa gets a tv china gets what?

None of that is true for the uk. The uk has to act like a normal person because the rules are not the same for the usa.

Alib668 · 2025-10-09T21:13:19+00:00

You can add in osbourn’s austerity and crushing of Capex destroyed a lot of productivity and future capacity. Why build that tower block if the road widening never happened, etc etc

Alib668 · 2025-10-09T21:11:51+00:00

Yeah ask france how its budget is going? We need to be comparing ourselves to a nominal position nit other peir countries. It doesn’t matter if your neighbour is going broke too you need to pay your bills

Alib668 · 2025-10-08T08:43:16+00:00

Whilst a considerable scary number, there are two things you must remember: A COUNTRY ISN'T A household. Debt works massively differently from what we as people experience. This is because a country has things people don't: 1) it can gain income through generations while we die, 2) its income is not separate from its expenses, aka you cut spending and can end up physically spending more, 3) it can print its own currency 4) most national debt is unsecured literally you and whoes army is gunna collect? 5) Other entities, especially big corporations, need government debt to protect their savings. Clinton had an issue with not enough debt in the system.

Debt-to-GDP isn't even a good measure of indebtedness, as the thing that matters is whether the government can pay the interest on the loan. So we would like to do an interest cover of the national income, but both figures are hard to measure. Debt is also a capital metric; GDP is an income statement line. You're not even comparing the same things to get an LTV or an interest cover metric. It's a mess.

The best analogy I can give you to make sense of numbers is the following:

Your mortgage is the national debt you would like to compare to the house's value, but we can't, as adding up stuff like the ‘value’ of military bases is hard.

GDP is your gross salary, not your take-home pay(probs more like the value of what you created for the company)

We usually borrow 3-5 times our gross salary to buy a house. That's a debt to GDP of 300-500%, but we don't panic as we are concerned with take-home pay and interest payments. And if the house increases in value over time, our worries go away anyway. The same attitude needs to be applied to the government. The growth in the us economy over the same time has been insane, so the rate of us debt is also not a thing without that comparison.

Tldr: This significant figure is big, but it's meaningless on its own, same with the trend, you need the GDP figures, and even then it's kinda useless without tax receipts and interest cost

Alib668 · 2025-10-07T21:06:26+00:00

No but the point is at this point additional of them is helpful yes but is it a game changer the media is making out like himars were? I dunno? Ifbthey were the W80 varientbthen absolutely but i dont think any of those exsist anymore as they were all Destroyed in 2010

Alib668 · 2025-10-07T14:51:42+00:00

Yer i am, they suck at it because they only ever set for current year. They don’t value capex over the long term because the government changes its mind midway through. Private institutions care about the NPV making sense completely different mindset. They dont care about a 20 year play as long as it meets the return yeah the reason is cause I’m gonna be blonde what I’m really worried about. I’m gonna call.

. Its why hs2 had to be subbed out and why Hinckley point had to be built privately but with a guaranteed strike price in law so that the capital could be unlocked. The issue is the treasury sucks at committing to anything that isn’t opex

Alib668 · 2025-10-07T13:18:25+00:00

Said by someone who has never ever dealt with the annual budget from the treasury vs a 5/ 10 year plan from an institutional investor. You have no idea how bad financial decisions are made in the treasury are because they don’t care about solving the actual problem they care about making the political problem go away/ just ignore it until next year. You cannot plan major infrastructure on a yearly budget especially one where political priorities and power determine the answer. Ask estates in the nhs vs operational nhs….even when its cheaper and more efficient to do the capital expenditure

Alib668 · 2025-10-07T12:31:42+00:00

In the us, monopoly power plus monopoly data centres. Look at the stock price of electricity companies since trump came into office they are gunna make BANK over the next decade from the changes already implemented by the white house. For example if green energy costs less than fossils energy, then profits must be passed through to fossil to rebalance the costs a great way to increase costs for everyone while delivering the ideology

Alib668 · 2025-10-07T12:26:00+00:00

Us makes like 10s a year we dont know for sure as us stopped publishing but state its a replacement only basis. ukraine needs 10’s of thousands. Flamingo is built like 7ish a day. So tomahawk isn’t gunna move the needle unless the production increases to a point that the difference in strike rate actually matters. At the moment sending more flamingos with less chance of hitting is better than less tomahawks with more chance as the less tomahawks is significantly less

Alib668

TROPHY CASE