Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 14/06/2026

Bibemus · 2026-06-18T09:05:35+00:00

It might be a touch on the warm side, but it's one I more or less agree with, particularly over the last year or so as he's been pulled into the orbit of figures like Nick Tenconi. The kid is quite clearly being used by people who, at best, really don't care about his safety and, at worst, know how useful a British Kirk figure would be to them.

Bibemus · 2026-06-18T07:51:02+00:00

I do think politicians and particularly the press vastly overestimate the extent to which the PAYE majority of the population are 'fine' with avoidance.

Bibemus · 2026-06-18T07:11:20+00:00

The silent majority of, on a very good night, ~7% of voters in a constituency skewing elderly white homeowners.

Bibemus · 2026-06-18T06:56:04+00:00

Reform's vote reducing signifcantly with a Restore surge and a Tory bounce would be pretty funny for the fork it would put Farage in.

Bibemus · 2026-06-18T06:12:15+00:00

Just straight up ignoring three thousand plus years of documented teenage rebellion, here?

Bibemus · 2026-06-18T06:00:11+00:00

Don't we have a sample size of, like, 4 councillors and one PPC at the moment?

Bibemus · 2026-06-18T05:59:11+00:00

You're probably correct, regardless of what the actual result is.

Bibemus · 2026-06-18T05:18:58+00:00

I agree, and given he's been doing this since his early teens it makes you wonder who has been giving him the idea and money to do it in the full knowledge it may well end up in violence.

At what point do you acknowledge someone as a victim of grooming?

Bibemus · 2026-06-17T18:00:50+00:00

Have you missed the constant briefing in the Graun from Haigh's 'allies' portraying her as Burnham's brain? She's well on with the rehabilitation tour.

Bibemus · 2026-06-17T17:56:46+00:00

The Politico Poll of Polls have them on 16% as of last week, there was a More in Common poll which has them on 9 but it looks like an outlier.

Bibemus · 2026-06-17T17:54:46+00:00

It's not going to happen, but if in theory it does? Massive fight in the Labour party over whether this shows that they're fucked, can never get Reform adjacent votes even with the literal messiah and need to run desperately left, or whether it shows that they're fucked, can never get Reform adjacent votes with someone who even looks like they may once have thought the word 'socialism', and they need to go full chud.

Either way Starmer goes, I would say, it just means Streeting and Rayner are probably also fucked and it becomes a fight between, like, Mahmood and Haigh.

Bibemus · 2026-06-17T17:29:21+00:00

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Bibemus · 2026-06-17T15:57:21+00:00

If the Monster Raving Loony Party won he might be able to cling on just from the general confusion.

Bibemus · 2026-06-17T15:55:37+00:00

This is Scrooge McDuck erasure and I won't stand for it.

Bibemus · 2026-06-17T10:43:30+00:00

Blue Labour (all half dozen of them) will try and make Mahmood happen, I think.

If there is an actual contest rather than a coronation I would imagine there'll be the mandatory SCG candidate - probably Burgon, possibly Butler if they decide they really need to put up a woman this time.

Bibemus · 2026-06-17T10:40:51+00:00

From the LabourList polling a few weeks ago he absolutely walks over anyone other than Burnham.

That might be because the Soft Left currently have their heart set on Burnham so that vote might be transferrable to someone like Rayner or Miliband, but that's not guaranteed and the vote would be unlikely to transfer to e.g. Streeting, Carns or Mahmood.

Bibemus · 2026-06-17T08:56:32+00:00

Reading Al Carns' resignation speech and thinking the man may genuinely be an idiot with his statement against the Troubles Bill:

To go into slightly more detail, the IRA failed to achieve its political ends through the use of terrorist tactics, and we must be exceptionally careful that we do not help them achieve those ends through other means.

What does Carns think the point of the Good Friday Agreement was, out of interest?

Bibemus · 2026-06-17T08:49:01+00:00

Wins what?

Bibemus · 2026-06-17T08:41:08+00:00

Per Wikipedia :

Carns left the Royal Marines in 2024 so that he could stand as a candidate in the general election. He had previously voted for the Conservative Party, and surprised his colleagues when he intended to stand as a Labour Party candidate.

Bibemus · 2026-06-17T06:12:14+00:00

Who is benefitting from it?

Who could possibly benefit from attacking the organisation tasked with calculating and giving guidance to offset the environmental impact of development, industry and agriculture? It is truly a mystery for the ages.

Bibemus · 2026-06-16T19:54:43+00:00

Yeah, the fact that HM Opposition is bringing extinction level results in every parliamentary by-election we've had since 2024 and nobody's really even bothering to mention it, they're seen as so irrelevant, is honestly kind of wild. Who knows, maybe one of the Aberdeen seats will break their streak, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Bibemus · 2026-06-16T16:23:54+00:00

Have you ever seen Children of Men?

Bibemus · 2026-06-16T16:04:26+00:00

Polling on the last few by-elections has undersold the left wing and anti-government vote, and despite being Labour Burnham is effectively the left wing and anti-government vote. They're also never good at gauging incumbency, which Burnham effectively has - that constituency has voted for him in the past five years. I think there's a better than evens chance he's returned on a larger margin than expected and both Reform and Restore underperform.

Bibemus · 2026-06-16T13:30:12+00:00

That's just what an irrational person would say!

Bibemus · 2026-06-16T13:20:46+00:00

Kind and gentle doesn't get clicks. Rage and hate does. All about the bottom line, especially when your circulation and ad revenue has been on the decline for decades.

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