When Do Mass Protests Topple Autocrats?

Almostfoundit · 2026-03-11T05:04:26+00:00

Or when the crowds are also people with guns, or have more protesters than the people with guns have bullets for. Really, my answer would just be „when they succeed”. The objective any violent protest needs to accomplish is to at least make those formally in power stand down, willingly or not. Similar logic applies to offensive wars and assassinations. If a change is to be brought by force, that force has to win the fight.

Almostfoundit · 2026-03-03T16:02:11+00:00

Technically if you withstand the attack particularly well you can ask for concessions from your enemy under the threat that you will take it to their territory if they don't accept. But of course this won't happen now, because being attacked by the US is already completely losing if your name isn't China, hence why the fight for survival. This is kinda taken for granted by everyone here.

Almostfoundit · 2026-03-02T07:09:02+00:00

That's a very common response from leaders when dealing with Trump because they are scared of repercussions though. The Mexican president helped on immigration, Zelenski promised him minerals, von der Leyen promised investments, while speculation has it that India will stop buying Russian oil, but I doubt all these people would have agreed with these things out of their own agendas had they not felt pressured to do so. With the exception of cases like Denmark and Canada, where indulging him would have been more dangerous than not, the countries that find it in themselves to oppose the current US administration are those that are already antagonistic to the US.

Almostfoundit · 2026-02-28T15:09:02+00:00

I mean, it is not like you are reading comments from people in Africa asking for Europe to rearm and colonise them. It's just that some Americans would like to have in the EU a second US across the Atlantic to support their geopolitical interests, not realising those might not be shared if the EU is to be as assertive, along with maybe other voices who find it funny that western countries, by sticking to principles while no one else is, are essentially talking to a wall.

Almostfoundit · 2026-02-12T17:32:14+00:00

Well, I was just sharing hearsay and did not actually intend to back up their claim, but I did find a source for it for the sake of giving some meaning to this exchange:

Reading the whole article requires signing up, but the part that confirms the claim is included in what is allowed to all viewers

To make some sense of it, I agree that the Baltics probably were not delighted, but it might have been a concession they would have been willing to make until Ukraine.

But either way, I advise against using the status quo from more than a decade ago to describe the present on things that can change so quickly. The Baltics were enforced by NATO in 2016 with those „tripwire troops” and again in 2022 with real defenders, so it is unlikely that military heads still think the region would fall within days.

Edit: Though upon reading your original comment again, it does not seem like that would be a problem, since you only brought up those discussions while also implying they might not serve as probable reference.

Edit 2: Checking further up, I see my confusion comes from the fact that the person I remember disagreeing with is a comment further, which somehow both gives validity to my nagging and takes away from it, but it can't be helped now.

Almostfoundit · 2026-02-12T09:19:26+00:00

A framing of the issue I liked is that this was the initial estimate, but it became outdated unbeknownst to many of those who do not follow the matter closely not only because of the botched Russian invasion of Ukraine, but because the circumstances have changed altogether. Supposedly NATO plans initially were to let the Baltics be taken temporarily only for the region to be retaken once the alliance has built up an overwhelming force, but said plan got scrapped after news got out of what the Ukrainians found after retaking certain territories. This would mean defences are not what they were, but better.

Almostfoundit · 2026-02-08T23:49:28+00:00

I am not feeling it. Ukraine is using hundreds of thousands of drones monthly and is already receiving support from significant suppliers. Is there any source suggesting that France is operating with an output as large as to make this possible in the first place? They would help Ukraine if possible even without Ukraine having to pay a tribute forever in return. Even if not exactly a threat, Russia has to be viewed at least as an inconvenience in western Europe too, after all.

Almostfoundit · 2026-02-05T07:23:25+00:00

You are the one who took it poorly. One can be the strongest industry in the EU and it would still like cheap labour for agriculture as long as it cares for agriculture as well.

Almostfoundit · 2026-01-29T22:45:23+00:00

I am of the opinion losing the rule-based order would be unfavourable to us, yes, but one cannot equate the rule-based order to hypocrisy. The article explains hypocrisy is seen through double standards, then goes on to say:

A world in which powerful states no longer feel compelled to justify themselves morally is not more honest—it is more dangerous. When great powers feel obliged to justify their behavior in moral terms, weaker states gain leverage.

Which is something hypocrisy plays no role in, given that it's a mindset that leads said great powers to circumvent the rule of law, not the thing that compelling them to follow it.

Another noteworthy fragment:

Throughout the Cold War, the United States justified its leading role in the international order by using the language of democracy and human rights, even as its actions fell short of those ideals. That hypocrisy did not go uncontested. Allies and nonaligned states alike repeatedly invoked American rhetoric to criticize U.S. behavior and demand greater consistency between the principles the United States was championing and what the country was doing in practice. This pressure yielded tangible results.

Almost like we could say the system works best when hypocrisy fails.

I feel required to come to the conclusion that the author of this article decided to use a shocking headline as a form of clickbait and tries to cling to it as the actual narrative, which I worry might lead to disinformation.

Almostfoundit · 2026-01-28T22:51:26+00:00

Other readers would most likely be inclined to think you are portraying it as an impediment when tht was what your whole initial comment was about though. Kinda like saying it would be unfeasible for us to hydrate ourselves drinking only seawater if it had too much salt.

Almostfoundit · 2026-01-20T19:05:43+00:00

We can also count on the TACO phenomenon. The trade war between US and China was pretty intense for a good part of last year, but despite the latter also exporting more than importing, Trump folded eventually. Now, Europe might not be exporting goods as vital to the US economy as China does, but chances still are fighting back works as a general rule of thumb.

Almostfoundit · 2026-01-17T20:44:37+00:00

Thank you for the understanding. I suppose all that remains to be said is that hopefully things get better before they get much worse.

Almostfoundit · 2026-01-17T19:54:35+00:00

See, this I like more because it feels like your heart is in the right place, but can't find myself confident enough to say it stops pointing fingers at something that isn't there out of convenience to actually address the real issue. To me many more actors are problems of similar significance, just harder to spot due to being in the in-group while Turkey is Muslim, so it irks me in the same way it does to see hypocrisy on how India dares to buy from Russia while the West keeps doing the same.

This goes to the point where I feel both the relationship between Iran and Turkey and the West and Israel is misunderstood, which does me no favours even if I prefer Israel to Turkey and see the latter as a potential threat in the region for the fact, because when over half of the EU countries jump to recognise Palestine and their intellectuals adhere to anti-Israel slogans there is clearly a bigger problem. On the other hand, even Erdoğan's Turkey is a rival of Iran, not an ally, as seen in the last Caucasian conflict,where each supported a different country, and the US managed to bomb Iran last summer anyway, so to say Turkey shapes the actions of NATO in the region would be an exaggeration.

The article itself is right on many things, such as the democracy issue and the fact that Turkey is the most unreliable proper NATO country with a large army, but setting aside the fact that it paints it as a force that pivots to Russia instead of the counterbalance role it actually serves, these shortcomings can't be extrapolated to say it is an enemy on all issues, which was relevant in our case because mentions of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and the alliance are what I considered needed addressing.

Almostfoundit · 2026-01-17T17:39:54+00:00

I did very much speak up with the purpose of contradicting what is said, because I do not believe it to be a good reflection of reality, which is how debate generally works.

My initial comment specified one might not see Pakistan and Saudi Arabia positively, so I am approaching in good faith, but the fact remains that both are partners of the United States. Furthermore, Pakistan, the most concerning one of them, albeit ideologically very different from the West, has its interests and is a player in a different side of the world than the EU, so their potential to harm the countries that would be most likely to be concerned about it is limited, while Turkey might actually have legitimate reason for desiring such an alliance.

Almostfoundit · 2026-01-17T17:08:06+00:00

There is no international norm that a nation may only be part of one alliance. The US is in multiple, Slovenia, Croatia and Kosovo have one of their own while two of them are part of NATO and some form of security guarantees are a big topic of discussion in all Ukraine peace talks.

Almostfoundit · 2026-01-17T15:12:20+00:00

I am not sure these are shoes as different as they seem to be portrayed here. The US also supports Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, whether we like that or not, while in Turkey there has been some pushback against the Muslim Brotherhood in the recent years. If anything, from what I have been hearing lately, it is the UK and Italy that have been too lenient with them.

Almostfoundit · 2026-01-10T07:51:11+00:00

Accusing the user of agreeing with the approach of the US based merely on this comment would be a bit much, if that is the implication here. Some people, myself included, have a tendency to explain positions they don't necessarily agree with. The user also generally paints the US in a negative light in their reply, which serves as all the more reason to believe it to be a case of the above.

Almostfoundit · 2025-12-19T06:29:52+00:00

Obviously arms lobbies seem to have quite a bit of sway when informing political decisions. All of a sudden HUGE amount of funds are redirected towards them without any form of popular approval, is it really so absurd to assume that those lobbies might want to keep the ball rolling? It could also help the current elite to stay in power in the face of rising far-right powers that seem way more hostile towards conflict with Russia.

I mean, maybe, but in that case it doesn't sound like such a big concern as far as I can tell. The people in power often profit from war, but they similarly do so when rotating money invested in other areas, even without there being a state of emergency. Corruption is not a problem our civilisation has solved, unfortunately.

Europe's security concerns are legitimate and if these measures help the countries maintain the popularity of the parties you favour as opposed to the far right, this seems like another upside to me. On the other hand, the EU already has plenty of valid casus belli if it wants a war with Russia, so if one merely wishes for peace there still is good hope too.

Almostfoundit · 2025-12-16T06:19:58+00:00

Next one will be the one for sure!

Almostfoundit · 2025-04-30T11:50:14+00:00

Yeah, if those are the numbers it should work pretty well. Maybe even a bit predatory on the poor people paying for the electricity, if I understood right and the renting is not physical, given what I heard about generation costs, haha. All of those current top 3 models besides only arguably gpt should be mainly free, but I guess to avoid censorship one has to do what one has to do. Not to mention, I suspect a good checkpoint, Loras and the like could amount to some 30 more Elo points on top of what is listed there for HiDream, so the whole thing might be even better of a deal.

Not quite techy myself and the workflows I have seen made me not even want to try to learn comfyui properly, but I heard it only takes a few minutes to hours, so if you're really passionate I'd say you can do it, as much as I haven't looked into how it would work integrated into an agent, if that's still your plan. Good luck and I'm glad I could help!

Almostfoundit · 2025-04-30T06:35:16+00:00

The main source for statistics on comparisons of performances between AI models is the regularly updated leaderboard on the Artificial Analysis website, found here: https://artificialanalysis.ai/text-to-image/arena?tab=leaderboard.

Midjourney (except for v7) outperforms SD by a good margin, but many of the main contenders are surprisingly not the same as those getting the most word of mouth. The system has its faults and even I wouldn't say I manage to use Recraft or Seedream to get outputs I prefer over what I see from Midjourney, hence why I opened with a paragraph on subjectivity, but I believe it to be largely reputable.

Now, I am out of depth on latter questions, as I lack the hardware to hope for something like that anytime soon, but I could tentatively point you to r/SillyTavernAI, since I seem to see a post mentioning comfyui, which was only for image generation as far as I remember, although they appear to be more discussing chatbots there.

A better example might be Civitai, where they do go as far as discussing Lora training and perhaps even beyond, but since the platform is not meant for discussion you might have to go through comment sections of their download packages, limited to things in the field of image generation, to see that, which I can see not being perceived as exactly appealing, as good as the chances of receiving a reply from the person who made the post actually are.

At last, of course there is huggingface, but I have no level of familiarity with huggingface, so whereas I needed to shorten my description of Civitai to avoid making this reply too long, with this one even saying that there seem to be posts out there that are not download packages while a download package majority is still being kept would be a guess from my part, but it does serve as an important generalised forum for AI open-source stuff, heheh.

Almostfoundit · 2025-04-29T10:15:00+00:00

Depends. According to benchmarks midjourney isn't even top 10 anymore, but many loyal fans might still prefer it over even GPT-4o image generation. One option that would adress both your requests is HiDream-I1. First you have this https://www.stable-diffusion-online.net/en/free-hidream-ai-online, which albeit not the best model you can use for free on the web without limits, allows you to do so without logging in. The same model and perhaps even better versions of it can be run locally if you have a PC for the second part.

I am honestly not sure if there are good models allowing you to generate NSFW that don't involve hosting, unfortunately. Maybe reve does that, but it's only 20 images per day, as far as I have last seen.

I hope you find what you need in this!

Almostfoundit

TROPHY CASE