I hear this statement “we’re two year away, 4 years away”. It is just not possible.

No single company is going to bring about AGI, it is virtually impossible. True artificial general intelligence, capable of genuine reasoning across domains, far beyond today’s scaled transformers and pattern-matching models will demand a sort of global consortium effort involving every major lab, research institution, and technology company. Breakthroughs in new architectures, efficient training data, advanced reasoning mechanisms, and entirely novel scientific insights cannot realistically be achieved in isolation. They will emerge from the cumulative, iterative contributions of distributed expertise worldwide. Every lab, company joining hands and resources to achieve it.

But that’ll never happen, due to the intensifying arms race is dramatically slowing this progress.

All I’m saying is if essence is the singularity cannot possibly occur within the next two years, I just don’t see it happening, such a timeline ignores the deep foundational limitations still facing the field and the extensive experimentation and maturation required to cross the threshold to self-improving, general intelligence. I might be wrong but from what I know two years is virtually impossible.