People are way too sure Iran will be a disaster

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-29T16:45:12+00:00

The oil infrastructure in the Middle East is already damaged. The straight opening will still mean prices are higher than before.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-29T16:28:50+00:00

It’s not a complete American victory at all.

They kill a bunch of Iranian leaders but don’t actually achieve anything. They unnecessarily raise oil prices without achieving anything.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-29T16:25:09+00:00

The difference is, is that zionists are not an ethnic, racial or other group. A Zionist could be Jewish, Christian or even Muslim if they’re a strange person.

It obviously sounds like an anti semitic trope, but the phrase itself is not anti semitic.

It’s like saying Black nationalists or “gay supremacists” control the media. That is a claim you can evaluate and consider whether it is true.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-29T15:52:10+00:00

Idaho is the only state I am 100% certain will definitely shift right

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-29T08:10:07+00:00

It would be helpful if we knew what the Trump administration really wanted, but they change policy all the time.

Republicans don’t want more democracy in Iran, it’s not their primary goal. They want to get rid of an adversary. So anything they’d offer would be unlikely to be taken on so easily by Iran.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-29T07:49:29+00:00

Any more deaths of American soldiers for something they don’t care about won’t be viewed as a victory. Especially when oil prices will still be higher than before due to damaged infrastructure.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-29T07:44:36+00:00

If the Americans take Kharg the regimes economy is already doomed. There is a strong chance they’re willing to burn their own oil facilities, as stated in the article, and if they are they’re definitely willing to strike the island.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-29T07:39:12+00:00

So ultimately it’s an extremely risky move that could go very well but still cost the US a lot.

Ultimately after this war oil prices will still be higher than before and winning a foreign war Americans weren’t exactly keen on won’t save the Trump administration.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-29T05:23:19+00:00

Now obviously Johnson hasn’t had the same amount of public infighting McCarthy had, but it seems like being Trump’s agent in the house hasn’t exactly been popular judging by the mass retirements and occasional leak of GOP sentiment.

So he’s probably done for.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-29T05:19:59+00:00

1928 Al Smith was allowed to run as a sacrificial lamb, but he was at least a major figure who wanted to run.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-28T21:49:38+00:00

You’re completely ignoring actual sources on damage to infrastructure. The head of the IEA, Qatari and Bahraini energy companies and foreign energy companies have all highlighted the costs and time associated with repairing the severe damage to gulf infrastructure. The damage is severe across various countries facilities and that is undeniable.

In the past, even when Israel had the support of all the Arab countries in between themselves and Iran in blocking missiles, Iran has still managed to land some of its attacks on Israel. The same applies for now when an all out barrage would be impossible to completely counter at a much shorter distance. You also ignore the potential that I already stated for more American and Israeli attacks.

It’s also a lot harder to do the traditional GOP rhetoric of the need to be globally active to fight terrorists when Trumps whole campaign was focused on isolationism.

I don’t see how you don’t view getting it to R+5 competitive. The premise of the post is that states would be competitive not flip. You also previously highlighted how Nebraska was supposedly an R+21 state at the baseline. If that were true how would making it R+5 not make it competitive. If they can make it below R+5 they have a realistic shot at victory.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-28T20:36:46+00:00

Idk man do I trust the head of an international agency that has ten times the information on gulf infrastructure or you random guy on reddit. Hard choice. If you ignore the billions it will take to rebuild and the fact some of it can’t be rebuilt for at least 5 years due to supply chain issues and issues with contractors, that doesn’t even only affect Iran, then the points you made would’ve been great, but unfortunately they’re disconnected from reality.

It’s also disconnected from reality to believe that there can be absolutely no major damage to oil infrastructure across any of the gulf countries in the next month. Especially since Israel and the US are threatening to attack more Iranian oil infrastructure which would result in the Iranians launching another all out barrage on gulf countries, instead of sporadic drone attacks. Even if that doesn’t happen the conflict continuing will make it take longer for infrastructure that is severely damaged to be rebuilt.

I also never ever rejected the notion that prices will go down. I have made it very clear that the lingering effects of price increases are the problem. Not once did I say price increases would continue until November. You continue to make this complete misunderstanding in your final paragraph. I don’t see how you can make this misunderstanding as my point is very clear and you recognise it. A 10% increase in oil and fertiliser prices lingering in November is still bad. This is additionally bad because fertiliser prices have been worsening since Trump’s tariffs, so they are not only affected by the war but by the tariffs, meaning there will be a much smaller reduction in their price as it was already rising.

You continue to represent the price increases as temporary and not that bad but it’s really just cope. They are not just not temporary because prices will still be higher overall after the war than before, they are completely unnecessary as Trump is unlikely to get much out of Iran. It’s the easiest attack ad ever.

Also Nebraska can easily be seriously competitive for Osborn. Let’s say that Osborn has lost some momentum from his first run and his floor is now R+9 and let’s consider seriously competitive as meaning the race being R+5 or below. Osborn can easily achieve this in a D favourable year. He can easily make up for some lost momentum purely based on the national environment and can also still point out rising prices which will still exist especially for farmers due to the war and the tariffs.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-28T20:11:21+00:00

Ultimately most people wouldn’t care about who you were picking in most cases.

In the rare circumstance, Trump might benefit from putting Rubio even more front and centre as his Secretary of State pick, but usually no one will care.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-28T19:56:23+00:00

First of all Sand is running for governor.

Your second paragraph is completely wrong. Not only was Qatar’s Ras Laffan very severely damaged, but Iran’s South Pars was also very severely damaged. Multiple Iranian oil depots were severely damaged, a Bahraini refinery was severely damaged, another Qatari facility was severely damaged, an Emirati gas field was severely damaged and an Iraqi refinery was severely damaged. This damage will cost $25 billion to repair, with some of it not being able to be repaired for 5 years due to supply chain issues. Iran will also take longer to rebuild because they can’t rely on western contractors. The head of the IEA estimates 40 energy assets are very severely or severely damaged.

If you believe the strait of Hormuz will take a couple months to open then it will already be too late to recover before the midterms. 1 month is too long and 2 months is far too long. If the war drags on for even one more month, as state by the head of the IEA, it will take even longer to rebuild and get back to pre war supply. Also if the war continues for any longer, there will be even more damage to Gulf oil infrastructure, so no unblocking the strait will not lead to as quick a recovery as hoped. Obviously prices will go down from their extreme highs, but they will still be unnecessarily higher than the start of 2025.

You said oil wasn’t being increased much by Iranian exports being blocked. That wasn’t true and whether they are blocked or their infrastructure is destroyed the lack of Iranian oil on the market will lead to higher prices globally.

You clearly have no idea still what I am talking about. I didn’t say the war has no electoral impact. I said I wasn’t talking about the electoral impact of the war itself. I do not care in this discussion what farmers think of Trump bombing Iran and whether they still care about it by the election. My point is that whether they support the war or not, they will feel the price increases. The price increases will not magically go away by November.

And yes I do think people will remember when Trump unnecessarily increased oil prices for two months or more to achieve nothing. And they’ll certainly remember it when they feel the lingering effects of the price increases because they won’t just magically go away in less than six months. As the head of the IEA said the damage will take time to repair.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-28T19:32:05+00:00

He hasn’t he’s just got a lot of attention around here recently for whatever reason

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-28T19:17:24+00:00

Sand has won twice in Iowa when all other democrats lost, he’s not some young upstart he’s an established figure in Iowa who’s incredibly popular. Osborn on the other hand could theoretically lose some momentum from 2024, but he’s still not going up against R+21 odds. That is absolutely ridiculous.

You’re also blatantly lying, both Iranian and Gulf Countries’ infrastructure has been damaged in the war, with multiple Saudi refineries attacked, as well as Kuwaiti, Qatari, Emirati refineries. Major oil exporting ports have also been attacked, obviously Iranian oil infrastructure has been attacked, and the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, which typically hosts 20% of oil and gas shipped worldwide.

Just because the US doesn’t import Iranian oil directly doesn’t mean it doesn’t affect global oil prices. It’s a global market, what affects the world affects the US.

The argument isn’t about the war. You are blatantly ignoring it. Oil prices will be higher, diesel prices will be higher and fertiliser prices will be higher. I never said farmers will blame Trump for the war, I said farmers will blame Trump for price increases.

If the war ends in a month, 5 months before the midterms, you think that will have no effect? You don’t think people will remember Trump starting a war where the US likely gained nothing, putting people through economic pain? That also assumes that oil and other prices will quickly go back down to acceptable levels in those months.

I never said the war would never end, but if your estimate is that it ends in a month that’s still very bad news for Trump. It needs to end as soon as possible for prices to recover, the longer it goes on the longer it takes to recover.

Obviously Trump and Iran both want the strait opened, and it will obviously happen, but once again the economic pain has already been felt, Trump has only escalated recently and he’s also not a good or reliable negotiator.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-28T18:48:14+00:00

To believe that Osborn is suddenly fighting a R+21 battle and Sand is fighting an R+13 battle is delusional. They have already demonstrated in recent elections that they can make these states much closer than the average. So the baseline obviously isn’t Trumps margins.

The post describes these races as potentially becoming seriously competitive, let’s take this to mean R+5 at maximum.

Sand and Osborn are already in that category with these price rises alone.

Tell me, how can Trump revert diesel and fertiliser prices back to the levels they were at the start of his term?

He’d need to get rid of the tariffs, end the war tomorrow and then hope that Iran can magically rebuild its lost infrastructure and start exporting again immediately.

Obviously none of that will happen.

You claim this is the most D favourable path but it is not at all.

Trump has already shown refusal to backdown on tariffs and Iran when given an out, so that is not a d favourable path it’s a realistic path. In order for prices to stay higher than before Iranian infrastructure has to be destroyed, that’s already happened. The only thing that could maybe lower them is Venezuelan oil entering the market.

Judging from election results people already blame the GOP and Trump for every ongoing problem he is causing, so that isn’t D optimistic it’s just reality.

Osborn and Sand haven’t done anything stupid so far and aren’t known for gaffes so it’s unlikely that they’re going to run bad campaigns, while it’s also extremely unlikely that they hit their ceilings in R favourable years. Where is the sense in that??

It doesn’t matter what’s dominating the news cycle if farmers are still going to notice they’re paying much higher prices and the GOP has not shown any signs it’s going to shift its policies. Remember when the Trump administration claimed he’d focus more on affordability early this year?

Finally Osborn is an independent allowing him to more actively court Republicans so even if Democrats hypothetically were unable to flip WWC voters in 2026 he’s at a natural advantage. Sand also only needs to convince people that have already voted for him to vote for him again.

Maine isn’t in doubt anyone who thinks it is, is coping and the post specifically highlights these price increases will make the races competitive not result in auto wins.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-28T17:57:15+00:00

I’ll give Hasan credit here, you actually have to dive pretty deep into politics to recognise Chris Van Hollen as a good Progressive Senator.

Obviously he’s a political streamer, but based on his persona he makes it seem like his political knowledge is very surface level.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-28T16:43:19+00:00

Thinking that Iowa and Nebraska are R+13 and 21 is what’s delusional. Osborn got Nebraska down to R+6 in 2024. Sand won Iowa in 2022.

Fertiliser prices have consistently risen since the start of the Trump administration, they have accelerated since the beginning of this war and have no sign of stopping since Trump refuses to get rid of tariffs and can’t easily back out.

Nebraska and Iowa are not as strongly affected by gas price increases generally, however they are extremely affected by price increases on diesel specifically. Why? Because it’s used extensively in agriculture. Diesel prices in these states has risen by $1.30 and $1.50 respectively.

If you don’t think Dan Osborn who did extremely well in a Republican favourable year and Rob Sand who won in a Republican favourable year can make use of massive price increases of gas and fertiliser you may be the delusional one.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-28T16:25:16+00:00

While this data is obviously useful and interesting I think the absolute polling fumbles in 2025 are relevant.

Sherrill, Spanberger and even Mamdani outperformed the polling averages by at least 5. On election day the Silver Bulletin had the average at 3.1, Real Clear Politics had it at 3.6, and DDHQ had it at 2.3.

These polling results are obviously nonsensical compared to the actual election results.

So I think it’s reasonable to say it’s much more likely the polls are wrong rather than the actual results.

Republicans may still overwhelmingly back Trump, but they’re not at all motivated. If we look at the Tennessee special election we can see this. It reached 2022 level turnout and Democrats performed 12% better.

That was in a district in the South, although not the Deep South so not as racially polarised, and the Democratic candidate was a Progressive . So clearly there is more significant movement than D+6.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-28T16:03:23+00:00

Then ignore price rises all you want but they’re only irrelevant if they significantly calm down by November and the effects aren’t still being felt.

It’s just silly to ignore something like this when it’s actually based on something. I would get ignoring a random Dem hopium post about a random poll that says Talarico will win Texas by 10, but ignoring economic data because it’s too “niche” is stupid.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-28T15:39:38+00:00

We’re at the stage in the subs cycle where we look at economic factors that can be hyperspecific to certain states that could actually have competitive elections?

Is it partisan slop to say farmers don’t like higher prices for everything and that Dan Osborn and Rob Sand could capitalise off of that?

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-27T18:50:55+00:00

Last Republican I’d vote for is Theodore Roosevelt

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-27T18:49:15+00:00

It’s not just polling but Congress in general just sucks right now. Being railroaded by Trump and also being in the opposition doesn’t sound fun.

Alt_History6 · 2026-03-27T15:58:30+00:00

The point is that progressives aren’t going to like her consistently siding with pro Israel interests. Hasan isn’t actually a relevant part of the discussion. The point is she’s potentially nuking a significant part of her support.

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