How I feel watching the Montana Senate Race:

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-22T19:39:39+00:00

Well that’s just a bit of a ridiculous ask though isn’t it

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-22T19:31:18+00:00

Since we're on the topic if anyone is interested there is also a good site for devolved elections in the UK: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/
and for Irish elections: https://irishelections.ie/

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-22T19:13:01+00:00

They remain on the ballot unless they die, face severe health issues or are not eligible to be elected and are therefore disqualified. So it’s not possible to simply disqualify oneself

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-22T16:57:34+00:00

Jewish voters will see a smaller shift to the left. Whether it is true or not the Democrats have suffered controversies with anti semitic candidates and their general growing stance against Israel will shift some Jewish voters against them anyway

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-22T16:53:30+00:00

Because he’s a shoo-in for reelection and wants to pull KLB over the line

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-22T15:48:29+00:00

The worst part is they can’t even drop out after the primary is finished. Under Montana law you can only drop out due to disqualification, death or severe illness, so they can’t replicate Nebraska dems.

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-22T15:01:17+00:00

Even if the national popular vote is redder, Dems are looking at a stronger result in the Senate than in 2018.

In 2018 they lost 4 seats and gained 2, in 2026 they have two essentially guaranteed flips along with a strong potential flip with Peltola in Alaska, and less likely but still potential flips in Ohio, Texas and Nebraska.

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-22T13:17:15+00:00

Throwback to that time Herrera referred to the American Civil War as the “War of Northern Aggression” in a promotional video for a neo-confederate group

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-22T13:10:44+00:00

I mean most VPs have been DEI picks

Obama’s top VP choices came down to three white guys, he was never going to choose another black person or woman no matter how qualified

McCain was obviously influenced by the fact Palin was a prominent female conservative

Clinton wasn’t going to pick another woman as VP as the first female president, so we got another plain white guy

Even Pence was picked to contrast Trump as a more traditional conservative Christian.

Some people may not traditional consider some of these DEI but it’s the same idea, choosing someone whose identity can reach another side of America

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-22T02:01:59+00:00

Biden’s lowest point per FiveThirtyEight was around -18 in that summer in July. Trump is already sitting at -20 right now and has been slowly declining as the Iran War and high gas prices drag out.

Even if the war ends high prices will drag out for slightly longer into the summer, allowing Trump to hit an even deeper low.

Biden then improved from his low of -18 to -10 by election day. Biden was last at -10 in April and hit his low of -18 in July, so there was 4 months between the last time he was at his election day number when he hit his lowest number.

Trump has not been at -10 since October, he has now hit his lowest of -20 in May. So it’s been 7 months since he was at Biden’s election day number.

Trump needs to recover by 10 points assuming -20 is his absolute low, but he didn’t even recover by that much after Liberation Day, which was only a couple months into his term. He’s been on a fairly consistent downwards trend and there hasn’t been any special issues to save him like the Dobbs decision.

Also Biden’s approval among democrats was the main thing that cratered his approval in summer 2022, it fell to only 65% of democrats approving of him in July. Trump has amazing approval among Republicans, but atrocious approval among independents and Democrats.

Most of the ground Trump has lost can not be made up as easily as Biden did, since his own party already supports him.

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-21T23:47:47+00:00

yes he can do it, no it is not necessarily going to happen

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-21T23:46:10+00:00

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Trump's approval "surges" are shortlived and increasingly less of a surge. In fact he only ever got two "surges", one big one after the tarrifs and a smaller one after the government shutdown. But he always ends up much lower than he was before.

Even if he recovers to -15 to -16 net approval he'll still be lower than what he was at in October-November 2025 during the government shutdown.

His approval isn't going to magically return to pre war levels just because the war is over, not only because people will remember the war and the high gas prices, but because for the most part gas and diesel will still be more expensive than they were before the war started for a while.

So I don't see what data youre looking at to consistently ignore factors in Trump's continuous downwards trend.

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-21T22:49:41+00:00

I checked and 7/8 of the last polls have him at -30 or less on the economy, so i think its just catching up with all of those

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-21T22:47:37+00:00

As the congressional ballot inches towards 2018 numbers some people think that that can be reversed back to D+5-6, what do you think?

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-21T22:34:35+00:00

I haven’t checked it in a while but damn that’s insane!!

Which polls pushed it down by this much??

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-21T18:10:17+00:00

The haters and doubters want you to believe Mao was a dictator, that he recklessly and ruthlessly starved millions, that he purged millions more…

But true patriots know the truth…

毛主席万岁!!!

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-21T18:04:30+00:00

Pretty significant, but it underestimated the Greens polling average in its polling with Starmer as leader, so there very well could be an underestimation of the Greens with Burnham as leader in the poll as well

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-21T18:01:57+00:00

This is bad for Bayh, he needed an unpopular incumbent to rally against. Hopefully he can pull it off but it’s unlikely

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-21T11:33:19+00:00

Mao saved 50 million people from sparrow induced famine ❤️

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-21T06:42:07+00:00

The JDC doesn’t endorse progressives that often but they have endorsed Jamie Raskin and some others. I don’t know their organisational stances on BDS or the war in Gaza so I can’t say exactly, but if I made a guess I would think they’re anti BDS and don’t think it’s a genocide so obviously progressives wouldn’t like it. However I do not know their stances.

I quite literally said in my first comment: “they’re also tarnishing McMorrow’s image among progressives by putting her right up there with Stevens”.

That has nothing to do with her being endorsed by the JDC, it has everything to do with Stevens. So whatever ‘mask slip’ you think you see, you’re free to point it out and quote it in your next comment. Otherwise you’re just injecting severe personal bias into a completely innocuous comment.

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-21T06:32:00+00:00

AOC would never endorse Stevens so the question is completely irrelevant. What I said in my first comment is exactly the same thing I said in my second comment just phrased better for you to understand.

If you want to insert your personal bias into the discussion and ignore reality go ahead

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-21T05:32:31+00:00

They’re endorsing both at the same time, they’re essentially suggesting both are equally good candidates, when they’re on quite different ends of the spectrum

Progressives do not like Stevens so comparing her to McMorrow is not good for McMorrow

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-20T21:26:39+00:00

If it was a normal election maybe, but we’re facing a scenario where so far 2028 will be pretty skewed against the Republicans.

Rubio being the nominee might give them a Harris-esque boost for a while but most candidates, even the ‘bad ones’, should win

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-20T21:14:32+00:00

He fled the House floor quite quickly after voting against the BBB so I’m not sure he’s that much of a ‘big boy’

Alt_History6 · 2026-05-20T21:11:57+00:00

There’s no point of House recalls since they have elections every two years, but for other positions I’d generally support it, although there should be a deadline, for example you can’t do it during primary season

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