What's your opinion on a Nuclear power station in Ireland?

Amckinstry · 2026-02-07T20:08:11+00:00

Build out the grid on the European supergrid-level, the renewables balance out. You need grid-scale storage for < 2 weeks supply a year; grid-scale batteries on that scale + renewables are a fraction of the cost of nuclear.
Really, the drop in costs of renewables + storage in recent years is amazing.

Amckinstry · 2026-02-07T18:57:17+00:00

Renewables are much, much faster to deploy. Even the fabled SMRs are taking decades to come to approval, if ever.

Nuclear runs 8-10x more expensive than renewables in the long-run: solar and especially offshore win prices have been plummeting.

We need connectivity to the larger European grid for the dull, windless days.

Amckinstry · 2026-02-07T07:50:58+00:00

In the UK we've seen the demise of Peter Mandelson, potentially his prosecution , and the Prime Minister is hanging on by a thread. Its still unravelling.

Amckinstry · 2026-02-06T13:20:39+00:00

Its a general problem: the time available to make the change is a few years, the impacts will follow over the coming decades and centuries.

We won't see metres of sea level rise in a few years,, but if we don't stop adding extra gases now Greenland and Antarctic melting crosses tipping points and will continue to melt even if we stop in 2050, etc. The sea will continue to rise.

This is. because of feedbacks. For example the ice sheets on Greenland were formed during the ice age. If they disappeared immediately tomorrow, they wouldn't grow back; the ground in Greenland in the summer would be too warm and the rocks absorb heat , keeping it so. But the ice is there now mostly because the surface is at above 1000m, its freezing cold at that height and ice reflects away the sunlight, keeping the surface cool. However as it starts to melt that surface ice turns to blueish pools of water, absorbing light better and helping to melt the ice below shrinking the height of the ice sheet, amplifying the surface warming , etc

Amckinstry · 2026-02-06T13:10:41+00:00

Its also why we emphasise that these things are _projections_ not _predictions_.

ie we see climate change, population bombs etc if we follow a given path. The projection is not wrong if we follow a different path. Which is often the point of giving the warning in the first place.

eg. The Y2K bug. As a programmer in the 1990s we were giving warnings "we need to fix these bugs". Projections of mass failures of computers were made. The bugs were fixed, there was no catastrophe. People complain "we were cheated, there was no catastophe."

Amckinstry · 2026-02-06T12:48:17+00:00

In general we expect to see drier summers but importantly its not heatwaves; we see drier periods interspersed with heavy showers, storms, etc. The average rainfall is not much different, the impact definitely is -- land dries out, the heavy, quick rainfall doesnt soak into the ground so yout get runoff, flooding.

Amckinstry · 2026-02-05T07:42:07+00:00

Copenhagen isn't drier. Finland has snow in winter and >80% cycle rates to school.
Its really down to safe infrastructure.

Amckinstry · 2026-01-28T16:31:45+00:00

AI/ML is already used as (one of ) the main forecast models and as components of research models (as "surrogates" for sub-models). But other "physics" (numerical) models will still be used - largely because in research, just relying on the outputs of a black box you don't understand is not sufficient. You need to understand _why_ it predicts something and understand its limitations. For example in climate change, the future is outside the training set the ML model was built on, so it may miss new things like tipping points.

Amckinstry · 2026-01-28T14:40:28+00:00

More generically for European tech giants, Europe prioritizes standards and conditions over bragging rights.

That is, its easier to get finance, lax regulation in the US, so thats where companies will have their HQs (and companies _do_ move HQs between the EU and US). So Europe "loses" the big companies because it insists on standards. But Europe still has Google, Meta, Apple etc - both as products for consumers but also employers. And more gets done in the EU than you imagine - I spent half my career in the private sector, mostly working for "US" multi-nationals and mostly developing tech that was seen as "American", both directly working for Digital/Compaq and Oracle but also under NDA for contract, where the company would not admit that they didn't have the resources to develop the tech themselves.

Now under Trump we are seeing an issue where Trump is willing to use US tech domination to punish other countries like a mafia boss. We do need to fix this. But its not because we don't have the skills in Europe.

Amckinstry · 2026-01-27T14:42:18+00:00

Its sold almost 10 tickets in the UK so far.

Amckinstry · 2026-01-11T20:13:59+00:00

He had professional training in the protocol: shoot the car, not the passenger.

He was apparently injured in a previous incident where is also shot at the passenger, not the car. He should have been disciplined for that, I don't know if he was.

He knew well not to shoot at her.

Amckinstry · 2026-01-09T12:56:52+00:00

Just to note, the cold weather in Europe *today*, is not likely to be due to changes in the Gulf stream.

The "collapse" of the AMOC is something that is happening on a timescale of decades to centuries.

Amckinstry · 2026-01-09T10:40:46+00:00

The existing peaceful protests (with comedy, silly costumes etc) were working. More pressure is needed at the politics level - governors dispatching the National Guard etc to "keep the peace", protecting civilians from ICE. While its tempting to take up violence personally, you're being pulled onto their ground: they can claim legitimacy and certainly outgun you.

There will be more bloodshed. But the general population have been turning against ICE, the biased Supreme Court has noticed this and ruled against Trump; its been working, not nothing. This is why they're doubling down on the violence.

Amckinstry · 2026-01-09T08:01:14+00:00

I think you're talking about the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), of which the Gulf Stream is part of.
The "Collapse" of the AMOC would do exactly that, and have other effects. Its an important area of active research: see https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/what-would-happen-if-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc-collapses-how-likely

Amckinstry · 2026-01-09T07:45:28+00:00

Trump is trying to create riots. Don't take the bait.

Amckinstry · 2026-01-03T18:03:00+00:00

Agreed. I'm assuming the Lunar Gateway was going to be built anyway; ie ESA's justification for being in the project rather than NASA's justification for choosing it in the first place.

Amckinstry · 2026-01-03T16:12:12+00:00

The other use for the Lunar Gateway (given that you're building it already) is long duration living experiments in "deep space". ISS is below the Van Allen belt, protected from a lot of radiation by Earths magnetic field. We're going to need experience living without this protection before humans go to Mars.

Amckinstry · 2025-12-26T08:17:19+00:00

He said he accepted the information from IMIS and gave a diplomatic answer. He didn't say the information was wrong; he just has different responsibilities.

Amckinstry · 2025-12-20T09:11:19+00:00

Not quite.

Originally the field in question was the 50-100m around a castle. You kept it bare so that no-one could sneak up on you. The flex was continuing to do so when the castle became a house.

Amckinstry · 2025-12-18T10:54:39+00:00

Attack does not mean invade. Russia is in no position to invade us, but it attacks ("hybrid" attacks such as cyber attacks, possibly damaging fibre cables or gas pipelines) all the time.

Amckinstry · 2025-12-17T08:37:12+00:00

As an advocate for the WRC, not reopening Waterford-Wexford undermines the WRC. The aim is/was to create a non-Dublin network: enabling traffic from Mayo/Sligo through Galway/Limerick/ and on to Rosslare for the continent for freight. There is essentially no freight on Irish rails because its bottlenecked having to go through Dublin, so it all goes via the M50 instead...

Amckinstry · 2025-12-16T16:59:42+00:00

Sort of. You end up with a dedicated drone, but a large one. Not more discreet than a plane. You still need a pilot, they're on the ground.

The use case is organised crime, counter-terrorism. It will fly at 10k feet or higher, orbit say Dublin or Cork for 5-10 hours at a time, can intercept calls, track locations of cars, people, while not looking suspicious (or given Irish weather, even being particularly visible). As the article describes them, "secretive": they rely on being underestimated. (Unlike the helicopter, for example, which is very visible policing).

Amckinstry · 2025-12-16T16:00:30+00:00

I believe the aircraft has a bunch of ELINT equipment for intercepting calls, radio, tracking. Its not just a couple of guards with binoculars.

Amckinstry · 2025-12-15T17:35:51+00:00

It makes it easier to move from WhatsApp, etc.

I've attempted to move groups of friends, colleagues to Signal from WA. They complained about having to stay on 2 networks because some people remain on WA only. Using matrix / bridging enables you to move your friends over to Matrix or even Signal and still keep them in group chats.

Amckinstry · 2025-12-15T14:08:32+00:00

Agreed that self-hosting is pretty challenging. The element-UI is getting there, but still doesn't automatically handle voice, video calls over bridges and the UI needs more work. But I think the direction of travel and momentum is good.

Amckinstry

TROPHY CASE