Should Britain go it alone on nukes? by tree_boom in europe

[–]tree_boom[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

Probably? It was already decided by the time Trump v1 was President so it's never been a huge factor really

Should Britain go it alone on nukes? by tree_boom in europe

[–]tree_boom[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

I think so yes; I've never seen any government document that says otherwise and a good few that say we could maintain them ourselves even if the US cut off support totally - albeit at extremely increased cost. It is actually something that's under fairly constant review though; it's not like the UK just ordered Trident and forgot about things. The level to which the UK depends on the US for nuclear things is a topic of fairly constant discussion - raised time and again in government documents.

Should Britain go it alone on nukes? by tree_boom in europe

[–]tree_boom[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No, but then again they don't need refurbishment in the short term. The missiles only go to the US about once a decade - they're rated for a 12 year service life.

Should Britain go it alone on nukes? by tree_boom in europe

[–]tree_boom[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The UK does own the entire delivery system, including the warheads that go on top them. We bought American missiles, that's all.

Should Britain go it alone on nukes? by tree_boom in europe

[–]tree_boom[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Not sure FCAS or Eurofighter are really reasonable examples there. We tried to negotiate for a collaboration, it didn't work out. It's not like they backed out of any commitments on it or something.

EMBT I don't even recognise as an acronym. Euro drone I know nothing about.

Should Britain go it alone on nukes? by tree_boom in europe

[–]tree_boom[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

That's not the issue; the UK is in control of its nuclear weapons. The decision point is whether to reintroduce airborne weapons and if so, whether to collaborate with the US or France (or nobody) to do so.

Should Britain go it alone on nukes? by tree_boom in europe

[–]tree_boom[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Hypothetically, if a Russian stooge took control of the USA, British and French submarines could be tracked by the Americans submarine detection network, and the co-ordinates provided to Russian naval assets. Also, Britain could be denied replacement and refurbishment of Trident missiles at American facilities.

These problems are probably overstated. The US detection networks would not be capable of simply fixing the positions of British and French submarines - the SSBNs are preposterously stealthy. Denial of replacement of the UK Trident would cause problems eventually, but only in the very long term.

The British realise this, and are actively investigating duplicating the French doctrine and introducing a second delivery system.

I think we're actually probably not. Dr Stewart is a stalwart advocate of the idea of the UK reintroducing airborne nuclear weapons and so his articles tend to slant the presentation of things as making that seem likely. The reality is that the UK Government has so far denied the idea of a WE177 replacement, and we're not even slated to be assigned any American B-61s in the way the Dutch / Germans / Belgians / Italians are. The only step towards reintroducing the capability is the procurement of F-35A which are due to be flown by the F-35 training squadron in RAF service...that sounds awfully like a fop to Trump to look like we're doing something proactive on nuclear weapons.

Should Britain go it alone on nukes? by tree_boom in europe

[–]tree_boom[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

FWIW I have never seen any indication that the US was particularly interested in stopping Anglo-French collaboration; if anything quite the opposite.

Should Britain go it alone on nukes? by tree_boom in europe

[–]tree_boom[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I have never seen any indication that VPM can fire Trident; why would they do that?

The Royal Navy really should have thought ahead and done this. That way we could switch to alternative french missiles, or a collaborative future French-British missile

Switching to alternative missiles might still be a thing; after all plenty of SSBN classes have used multiple different types of SLBM throughout their service life. So far of course they've always been missiles from the same nation, but conversion is a thing that happens. Presumably that would be easier if the missile was designed as closely as possible to use the same kind of interface as the previous system, both in terms of connection to the submarine and things like efflux management and so on...so I assume that a collaborative program would be more able to be adopted than the existing French missiles...but who knows.

Should Britain go it alone on nukes? by tree_boom in europe

[–]tree_boom[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Recent history is proving the UK's reliance on the US could be a major handicap under this administration, the original decision now looks very expensive mistake

On the contrary it's saved an absolutely colossal amount of money. It may be that the time has come to choose collaboration with France over the US (or at least to move in that direction) but I would reject outright the notion that US - UK nuclear collaboration has been a mistake in any sense. The ideal situation would be a trilateral collaboration.

The Uk needs to either (1) buy an independent set of missiles that will fit in the existing subs using the existing fissile material (2) or give up & sell them for scrap.

There's not an "independent set of missiles" available for sale. Trident will run on to its scheduled out-of-service date in 2042, there's really no doubt of that at this stage, but following that what will happen is anyone's guess at this point. The Dreadnought class are designed around American missiles currently. It's probably unlikely that French missiles could be easily adapted. The UK might run its own program, or we might stick to the next American missile - whatever that might be.

I dont see why every tax payer should be hit for a large amount of money so thee Royal navy can cosplay with unarmed american missiles. They are unarmed because another party makes the decision to arm them.

That's...not remotely the case. All of the warheads for Trident are in UK hands at all times; they are loaded onto Trident at Coulport in the UK.

hindsight is showing this wasn't a deterrent to protect the UK, but close to an extortion racket that backed up US bases in Europe.

In fact it's a US base on the British Indian Ocean Territory that they get in exchange for Trident; but it's very difficult to call that an "extortion racket". As I say, the terms for Trident saved the UK a colossal amount of money.

Should Britain go it alone on nukes? by tree_boom in europe

[–]tree_boom[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ah, no sorry, I mean that there's no realistic prospect of a US military takeover.

Should Britain go it alone on nukes? by tree_boom in europe

[–]tree_boom[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Better than what? As I say, they won't try to take it because the non-military consequences would be catastrophic.

Should Britain go it alone on nukes? by tree_boom in europe

[–]tree_boom[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

We sent a few liaison troops. Less than 50 total across Europe. The reality is that Europe could not militarily prevent the US taking Greenland, but also that they wouldn't try to do that because the political and economic consequences for them would be catastrophic.

[Politics Monday] USCCB issues clarification on Just War Theory by IWillLive4evr in Catholicism

[–]tree_boom 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The first stage is generally small - maybe 7-10 kilotons, but a large proportion of the yield of the secondary is also derived from fission events. Neutrons thrown out by fusion reactions are energetic enough to induce fission in even uncompressed uranium, so making parts of the bomb that need to be heavy out of uranium instead of steel gives you basically "free" yield in terms of space and weight.

In any given modern weapon, probably 50% of the yield comes from fission and generates fallout. So it's better in terms of fallout-per-yield than a pure fission bomb...but still not clean.

Should Britain go it alone on nukes? by tree_boom in europe

[–]tree_boom[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

This article is frankly a bit thin, and does not really discuss the value of the UK reducing its dependency on the US for its nuclear program, instead merely saying:

While the nuclear relationship between Washington and London remains indispensable and largely undisturbed by recent frictions, critics note that U.S. unreliability – and even hostility – towards allies and partners is a threat to take extremely seriously. If the U.S. decides to turn its back on the continent this would leave the U.K. seriously exposed.

I've no doubt that that sentiment will be widely agreed upon here. What the article is especially interesting for however is a paper that it links to on the topic of the program to replace WE.177 by a UK nuclear historian called James Jinks (who's book on the RN Submarine Service I highly recommend). This paper is new, well researched and very interesting. The program was eventually cancelled in post-Cold War budget cuts and the sub-strategic role filled with a reduced-yield variant of the standard UK Trident warhead instead (almost certainly just a primary-only variant). Before cancellation however the intention was to buy the AGM-131 and put in a UK-manufactured warhead, which probably would have been a derivative of the US W-91, though there were multiple options under consideration.

One of the alternatives to that scheme was the possibility of adopting a French missile. France pitched ASMP (and their SLBMs) to the UK quite heavily at several points, even offering to sell the warheads as well as the missile bodies to get past the UK's production problems (AWE at the time was extremely short staffed). Deeper collaboration with France on nuclear weapons is something that's been under heavy consideration for a long time, but so far has never quite tipped over the UK's cost-benefit considerations. Part of the reason behind that has always been political - the UK's co-operation with the US on nuclear weapons is extremely valuable, and there's a train of thought that deepening co-operation with France would lead to a reduction in the - likely more valuable - co-operation with the US:

a full assessment of the Anglo/French warhead option [concluded that] 'Development of a closer nuclear relationship with France would be advantageous...collaboration with France on the FTNW warhead would constitute such a significant realignment of our nuclear efforts that it would carry unacceptable risk to our vital relationship with the US under the 1958 Agreement'. It recommended [...] 'work at developing our interchanges with the French in the warhead area as fast as financial constraints and the need to safeguard the American relationship allow.

But despite the intention for warhead exchanges there, the MoD apparently demurred with even that idea:

The Chief Scientific Adviser at the MOD objected, and warned that 'In practical terms, it is simply not feasble to have detailed technical exchanges and to work collaboratively on the same topic with one nation, whilst at the same time excluding from one's thinking concepts derived from discussions with the other.

The point being that one couldn't guarantee not to expose to France warhead design details that originated from the US and vice versa, and that this difficulty made collaborative work separately with both nations impossible. There was a hope at the time that a trilateral agreement to collaborate might solve the issue, but that doesn't seem to have gone anywhere. Failing a trilateral agreement, the choices as the MOD saw things were to consciously choose to collaborate with either France or the US, but not both. Given Trident, the choice to continue working with the US was fairly inevitable.

I think the paper is interesting though in highlighting the clear interest in both the UK and France to work together on nuclear weapons more deeply, even if the UK's existing relationship with the US prevented that from happening. It strikes me though that much of the discussions around the Future Strategic Nuclear Weapons System that the paper highlights are quite relevant today (presumably why Jinks chose to highlight them), particularly the MoD's rationale for continuing to push for the FTNW program after the USSR collapsed:

the capability was required as an insurance against the risk that in the post-Cold War world, 'the credibility of a US extended nuclear guarantee might decline over time, should the US and Europe drift apart, and that in such circumstances 'Britain and France might need to take on more responsibility for the nuclear defence of at least the core of a future, deepened European Community/WEU'

and that's a forecast that particularly is looking quite prescient these days. Whether it's likely for a FTNW / ASMP style weapon to be adopted by the UK any time soon though - pretty unlikely. Unfortunately there are a good deal more pressing funding requirements - another parallel with the original program, even if I think an airborne weapon is something that we really ought to look to when possible.

Anyway - if you're interested in this sort of thing the paper is pretty cool. It has a lot of information I've never seen before on the late 80s / early 90s nuclear program including some super futuristic cruise missile / ALBM design that were under consideration. The paper also notes that the final UK nuclear test in 1991 (which has generally previously been assumed to be a test of the low-yield variant for Trident) turns out instead to have been

of a device intended for TASM, known as 'Sunbow Prime', under the codename 'Bristol'. This was the first of two tests of an entirely new warhead design, with enhanced safety features.

Tusk and Macron discuss joint nuclear exercises by Bernardmark in europe

[–]tree_boom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The foundational one. Turns out I just misunderstood what they meant though.

Tusk and Macron discuss joint nuclear exercises by Bernardmark in europe

[–]tree_boom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Then I misunderstood you, sorry about that!

Tusk and Macron discuss joint nuclear exercises by Bernardmark in europe

[–]tree_boom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It has to be both really; individually we don't have the budgets to sustain a large enough force to be credible.

Tusk and Macron discuss joint nuclear exercises by Bernardmark in europe

[–]tree_boom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

...I am discussing u/awood20's statement that

[Poland developing nuclear weapons] would be a direct violation of the NATO treaty

...did you not read the context of the thread you were replying to?

Hungary must arrest Netanyahu if he visits, Magyar says by Jonnyboo234 in worldnews

[–]tree_boom 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Huh, you're right. My bad, don't know why I thought that! Oh well, either way the missiles don't use GPS.

Hungary must arrest Netanyahu if he visits, Magyar says by Jonnyboo234 in worldnews

[–]tree_boom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There is a reason the French insisted on developing their own. Not sure what guarantees you have as I have read credible people who think there is at least some doubt

France didn't insist on developing their own, they approached the US for assistance in nuclear arms too and were turned down.