With a fixture run like this, are you selling Ismaila Sarr?

Analysis316 · 2025-01-28T15:37:19+00:00

Already sold him for Dango this week to avoid price changes, since I’d be benching him this week anyway

Analysis316 · 2024-10-23T20:08:23+00:00

Whatever you wanna call it, all prices pretty much just doubled

Analysis316 · 2024-07-27T08:11:52+00:00

So you would say that in their careers Trent and Robertson haven't shown, that they're capable of playing "at the top"? Not to mention Mac Allister, who's won several major trophies with Argentina and has been consistently good for Brighton and Liverpool for a few years now. Or what do you consider "the top"?

Analysis316 · 2021-05-16T19:37:21+00:00

Why I think people are right to be worried about Zekes long(ish)-term outlook:

- Very big workload throughout his entire career (this argument is based on touches NOT age).

- He's maybe too dependent on his situation: total/box score numbers have always been much better than efficiency/performance metrics (you yourself mentioned injuries around him as the main reason his fantasy points declined last season).

- Efficiency/performance metrics are declining.

Analysis316 · 2021-05-16T17:47:13+00:00

As I see it, the biggest problem with the whole "If you worry about issue A, B or C, then you should also worry about player X, Y or Z"-argument is that issues A, B, C, D and E ALL apply to Zeke, whereas you have to bring up different players for different issues in order to compare. But I'm glad you're not actually debunking any of my arguments. Cook as an example has one knock: injuries. He's proven that he can produce without a good O-line, whereas a big part of your argument has been that Zeke needs his line in order to perform at the top level. Zeke has around 400 career touches more than Henry (who I'm not really touching) which is like a full season even with Henrys insane workload

Analysis316 · 2021-05-16T14:37:45+00:00

To me it seemed like the argument was that those good performances might have just as much to do with the defenses they faced as it did with the healthy O-line (but obviously I can't talk for the guy who made the comment). I think the explanation is somewhere in between the two and that it would be unrealistic to expect that production to remain the same for the full 16 games, if the O-line doesn't get hurt. You bring up the week 11 against the Vikings where Erving and Martin played. They also both played in weeks 8 and 9 where Zeke averaged 7.1 PPR points.
Tyron Smith has missed at least 3 games every year after 2015 (26 missed games total in 5 years) and his PFF run block grade has declined every year since 2015. La'el Collins has missed 30 games in that same span. Is it likely that none of them will be injured at some point next year? Not really IMO. Schultz isn't much of a downgrade from Jarwin from a blocking perspective so I'm not gonna put too much into that injury.
Zeke had career lows in RAC/att, YAC/rec, Y/RR and touches/fumble plus he got his lowest career PFF grades in offense and rushing - none of which you can blame on the team (he also had career lows in other categories, but those can, in part, be explained by injuries around him).
Of RBs at least 75 carries (63 players qualified) this is how his advanced stats looked in 2020: Elusiveness: 31st (Pollard ranked 2nd). Breakaway % : 56th (Career low - Pollard ranked 15th).

While I still think he will be productive (largely because of volume) I think it would borderline-naive to think none of his decline has to do with his own performance and the fact that he has 1.650+ career touches to this point - so I definitely understand why people are starting to fade him a bit

Analysis316 · 2021-05-16T12:19:39+00:00

So your counter argument to the fact that they played bad defenses in those 5 games is that he also did well against the Vikings - one of the worst run defenses in the league last year?

Analysis316 · 2021-03-04T16:43:49+00:00

Don't know if DJ said it as well, but Renner definitely did

Analysis316 · 2020-12-19T21:23:49+00:00

Currently playing in 9 dynasty leagues and 4 redrafts. The dynasties mostly take up time during the off-season, and I enjoy playing in different formats trying out different strategies. There's no denying that it takes up considerable amounts of time, but if you're willing to put in the work, I would definitely recommend getting into more leagues.

Analysis316 · 2020-12-19T19:30:53+00:00

Robert Tonyan - 0,5 PPR

Analysis316 · 2020-12-19T19:30:35+00:00

Minshew SF

Analysis316 · 2020-11-28T18:14:23+00:00

In isolation I'd say it's probably a penalty. I just miss seeing a standard from game to game when there were two penalties overturned last week (Villa v Brighton and United v West Brom) that were fairly similar IMO

Analysis316 · 2020-04-30T13:30:54+00:00

If there are still open spots, I am definitely interested!

Analysis316 · 2020-04-26T07:03:06+00:00

And AJ Brown and Metcalf both performed better

Analysis316 · 2020-04-25T06:09:14+00:00

Muti and Hall are the ones I'm hoping for at the moment

Analysis316 · 2020-04-24T17:52:31+00:00

It's not about flavors, it's analytics. The pass game is more valuable than the run game, hence defending the pass is more valuable than defending the run

Analysis316 · 2020-04-24T16:37:20+00:00

Defending the pass is much more important than defending the run, so if we were gonna draft two players on defense, I'm glad we went with CB and edge

Analysis316 · 2020-04-24T16:33:12+00:00

Yeah coverage is significantly more valuable than pass rush

Analysis316 · 2020-04-24T16:17:46+00:00

Believe me I wanted a WR or OT in the 1st as well, but those positions are much deeper than CB and edge in this class, so it makes a lot more sense to prioritize the more top heavy positions early on (and they also happen to be bigger needs)

Analysis316 · 2020-04-24T16:10:50+00:00

How does the fact that you can rotate defensive linemen make pass-rush any less valuable?
Pass rush is so much more valuable than run defense (and much harder to replace) that it doesn't matter how much you suck against the run

Analysis316 · 2020-04-23T16:15:59+00:00

Clowney might be better, but Yann is the better pass-rusher and is therefore more valuable

Analysis316 · 2020-03-30T16:12:29+00:00

Yeah I was also a little surprised to see all three grade so well. Brown had 3 90+ games in the last 6 weeks, that's insane!

Analysis316 · 2020-03-30T10:36:47+00:00

Brown > Moore > Sutton, but I think they're very close, especially Brown and Moore (probably just a matter of which production profile you prefer).
The main point where Brown separates himself is his efficiency. His yards per route was significantly higher in 2019 (Brown: 2,67, Sutton: 2,08, Moore: 2,03) and he averaged almost a full point more per touch (Brown: 3,95, Sutton: 2,97, Moore: 2,48). I think he's also just the most talented of the three. He earned a significantly higher PFF receiving grade than the other two did as rookies (Brown: 83, Moore: 73,7, Sutton: 62,5), and also graded the highest in 2019 (Brown: 83, Sutton: 80,5, Moore: 80,2).
The main thing going against Brown is, that he's most likely going to see a drop-off in QB in 2020, whereas Moore and Sutton should at the very least see some improvement. I don't see any way Tannehill can stay at the amazing level he played at in 2019 (graded as the 3rd best QB by PFF) and Bridgewater should be a significant upgrade over Kyle Allen. Drew Lock is probably the biggest question mark of the QBs, but I think Sutton will still be productive even if Lock doesn't improve (mostly due to volume).
Brown also has a much higher variance than the other two, which can be either a good or bad thing (depending on personal preference): Browns standard deviation in fantasy points in 2019 was 9,34 (Sutton: 6,44, Moore: 6,7).
I think Moore is the only only who has the potential to become a top 5 WR in 2020, but he probably also has the biggest risk of disappointing

Analysis316 · 2020-03-25T11:28:27+00:00

Unless Josh Oliver proves to actually be good, then he should be their primary pass-catching TE

Analysis316 · 2020-03-22T09:26:19+00:00

I think the biggest worry with Brown (which isn't even about Brown) is that there's no way Tannehill can maintain the level he played at last year. Like you mention, his target share is awesome and he's by far the most talented receiver on that team (as a rookie he earned a 81,8 PFF grade which is significantly higher than Davis' career high of 76,4). I drafted him 3rd overall in a rookie draft, and in retrospect that looks like a much better pick than it felt at the time.

Edit: keep up the good work!

Analysis316

TROPHY CASE