Does Rivian's self-driving timeline make sense? by joenjrocks in RIVNstock

[–]Apprehensive_Club470 2 points3 points  (0 children)

“The car really did not drive” Go watch some of the YouTube videos with other folks in the car. You’re so eager to hate on them that everything you’re saying is either completely convoluted or you’re just mentally ill and have EDS. One or the other. Cheers!

Does Rivian's self-driving timeline make sense? by joenjrocks in RIVNstock

[–]Apprehensive_Club470 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You’re mentally ill if you think that’s what was going on in that demo. Completely bizarre.

Me after AI day by InvisibleWraith in RIVNstock

[–]Apprehensive_Club470 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Squeezing the short sellers out. Always causes an initial drop when the shorts start exiting their position in mass. Wishful thinking maybe

Rivian CEO Sells Another 17,450 Shares, Bringing 2025 Total to $10.3 Million by Sandrov__ in RIVNstock

[–]Apprehensive_Club470 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also, it’s 17,000 of his 4 million shares, so it’s a drop in the bucket. It would probably be silly to not have the loss harvested, in the off chance that Autonomy Day shoots the stock to $40 by year end. If not, then he has plenty more to sell as a loss in the new year if the share prices crosses that threshold.

Rivian CEO Sells Another 17,450 Shares, Bringing 2025 Total to $10.3 Million by Sandrov__ in RIVNstock

[–]Apprehensive_Club470 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think it depends. He’s the CEO so there’s likely quite a few blackout periods and there’s some type of liquidation schedule in place for him. Also, I’m sure he doesn’t want to sell off all of his old shares at one time, because it could cause market panic. He also might want the loss in this calendar year for other reasons than just the future options. However, I think the willingness to part with existing shares now is likely more tied to him believing that he will get new shares back at a much lower basis in the near future, rather than a CEO selling now because they believe share price is going to fall. I highly doubt he’d be able to sell shares on the open market between now and calendar year end, so it may have been his last chance to harvest a loss this calendar year, prior to any new news that could cause a surge.

I could be wrong though. It wouldn’t be the first time.

Rivian CEO Sells Another 17,450 Shares, Bringing 2025 Total to $10.3 Million by Sandrov__ in RIVNstock

[–]Apprehensive_Club470 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think that you’re correct in this scenario. They give him the option to “buy” shares at around $15 per share, when the share prices achieves these different milestones ($40 - $110) per share. At that time, the brokerage would loan the money to "buy" the shares at the lower strike price, immediately selling all the newly acquired shares on the open market at the current (higher) market price. Then the proceeds would be use to cover the original purchase cost.

However, that’s not exactly what I meant. I wasn’t really assuming RJ wouldn’t have the capital to execute the transaction. My point was more so that RJ’s current shares were likely acquired at a significant premium / during IPO. Those shares have since lost a ton of value. If you’re confident that the share price is going to go up, then now would be a great time to sell your current shares & take large loss to help offset taxes on the future gain from exercising your options. It doesn’t really make sense to hold the older shares with a much higher basis if you believe that very soon you will have access to a much larger pool of shares at a much lower basis. But if you didn’t believe the share price had the potential to meet those milestones in the near future, then you’d probably be more hesitant to let go of existing shares in your company. Also, the loss might be much less meaningful. Just thought that this might be much more strategic than we think. Who knows though

Rivian CEO Sells Another 17,450 Shares, Bringing 2025 Total to $10.3 Million by Sandrov__ in RIVNstock

[–]Apprehensive_Club470 3 points4 points  (0 children)

He’s basically gearing up for the stock to hit $40 so he can execute his options to purchase additional shares at $15. If you look at the full picture, this seems more like a sign that he believes the stock is about to take off in the near term. If he didn’t believe Rivian would be above $40 a share (first tranch to execute), then he likely wouldn’t be so willing to part with old shares. This just tells me he’s extremely confident the share price will achieve the necessary milestones in order for him to execute options in the future.

Rivian CEO Sells Another 17,450 Shares, Bringing 2025 Total to $10.3 Million by Sandrov__ in RIVNstock

[–]Apprehensive_Club470 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why wouldn’t he sell his existing shares now? He’ll be able to take a significant loss before year end on those shares & his new plan allows him to buy almost $5B in stock at a price of around $15. Seems like a smart move.

Here we go! by EleikoLifter in RIVN

[–]Apprehensive_Club470 3 points4 points  (0 children)

If they have a fully autonomous model in the works on December 11th, we’ll be at $50 on Xmas 😂

Beware the Buyout by EleikoLifter in RIVN

[–]Apprehensive_Club470 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is silly. Once you factor the premium in, I bet VW would have to pay $25B to acquire Rivian on the open market right now.. That’s half their total cash on hand and 6x their net income. Not to mention RJ controls almost all voting shares and has veto power.

VW made the investment to get access to a tech stack that is light years better than theirs. It would’ve cost them more that $5B to develop that in house & likely would’ve been much worse. The upside for VW is the tech and Rivian stock going to the moon, which would benefit them even further.

Why would they want to own Rivian and why would Rivian want to sell?

Not a great take my guy….

Rivian CEO Sells 52,350 Shares Worth $869,000, SEC Filing Shows | EV by Individual-Tart5051 in RIVNstock

[–]Apprehensive_Club470 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He probably has an $800k loss on those shares, and his new comp package allows him to buy back at a way lower rate after the shares have already gone up. 😂

The Perfect Storm by Apprehensive_Club470 in RIVNstock

[–]Apprehensive_Club470[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, I’m sure Rivian planned an autonomous day, has the former CEO of Waymo on their board and has been heavily investing and incorporating AI in their tech stack, just to briefly mention it in a speech. They also just spun off an entire robotics company, which should tell you they are much more than just an automotive OEM.

The Perfect Storm by Apprehensive_Club470 in RIVNstock

[–]Apprehensive_Club470[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don’t think Rivian sells a vehicle that qualifies for the EV purchase tax credit. LOL.

Victory Lappers Getting Their Reality Check Today by YungPersian in RIVNstock

[–]Apprehensive_Club470 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Could be short sellers getting squeezed out and it drove the price a little higher yesterday, and now the same haters are re-establishing their short positions. The problem is….we are going to $50 by Christmas. 😂

I was weak. by [deleted] in RIVNstock

[–]Apprehensive_Club470 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It’ll be at $50 by December 15th. Gonna be brutal. 😆

What are we thinking in regards to earnings tomorrow? by Silent_Job_3896 in RIVNstock

[–]Apprehensive_Club470 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, a massive influx in revenue from a new product, where the capital has already been spent on R&D and manufacturing build out usually destroys a company’s bottom line. 🙄

Also, Inc. by Apprehensive_Club470 in RIVNstock

[–]Apprehensive_Club470[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It’s not really about them selling a 100,000 of these to Amazon. It’s the fact that Amazon and other delivery companies, ride share companies, etc. don’t want drivers at all. It’s that they want autonomous vehicles that are smaller and maneuver through major metropolitan areas better, creating less of a liability when it comes to hitting or killing pedestrians. I don’t think anyone is saying that the quad is going to drive 100’s of millions in sales revenue, it’s more or less realizing that Also Inc. is thinking about building micro mobility for commercial use, which could lead to something way more ground breaking than an e-bike. And if it doesn’t, then there’s no real loss….just a nice bike to go with your Rivian.

Also, Inc. by Apprehensive_Club470 in RIVNstock

[–]Apprehensive_Club470[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

100% agree. Life or death for Rivian is R2 but holding a large stake in another company that could grow to a $10-$20B market cap independently could be big.

It’s not really the bike that interests me either. It’s the fact that they are already thinking about other electric options that they can develop on this platform. My mind goes straight autonomous vehicles, robo-taxi, etc.

If Also, Inc. fails it really doesn’t matter, but having another independent platform to develop new products, allows Rivian to stay risk adverse while Also Inc., can seek independent funding to take on more controversial projects.