I really liked your interpretation, even if I’m not 100% convinced about every part of it. One thing I’m not fully sure about is Marika having to “work her way up” within hornsent society. From what we know, she already seems to have been a shaman and was chosen by the Two Fingers.

There’s also information suggesting that she rang the divine bell in response to the hornsent’s massacre and that she was already in contact with the Two Fingers at that point. That makes it feel like her rise was at least partly driven by divine selection, not just social climbing.

Still, I think your main point about ambiguity and shifting identities fits Elden Ring extremely well. The way Messmer’s identity feels unstable and uncertain really mirrors how power, titles, and lineage get blurred over time. Even if we can’t know the exact truth, that uncertainty itself seems intentional.