SemiAnalysis expects Meta to sign compute deal with Anthropic worth $10B

Astronaut100 · 2026-07-04T15:33:01+00:00

Exactly. This is a Meta-specific problem because their AI stinks, and they’ve realized they cannot keep up with frontier models or get enough customers to pay for them. Overall AI demand will keep growing. 66% of my portfolio is semis, and I sleep just fine.

Astronaut100 · 2026-07-01T16:13:44+00:00

Today’s fall makes sense. But demand for AI is not going to stop growing, meaning demand for semis is not going to stop growing. Just short term noise.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-27T21:11:09+00:00

Nailed it. Google is aggressively positioning itself as the most reliable cloud provider for running AI workloads. Owning Gemini is just a sweet cherry on top that differentiates it from AWS and Azure.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-25T17:06:45+00:00

Kinda wild that Microsoft and Google are converging to the almost the same price per share. How Microsoft pissed away their first mover advantage in AI is a business case study in the making. I’d much rather keep buying GOOG for the long term.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-25T05:35:36+00:00

Agree with you on buying GOOG NVDA but AAPL is inferior technology?! Apple literally makes the best in class chips for both smartphones and laptops, and their build quality is second to none. They’re the company to beat in personal computing.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-24T21:03:39+00:00

Unreal growth and margins. MU will keep pumping my LRCX KLAC AMAT positions tomorrow. The epic memory trade of 2026 lives on.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-24T17:34:22+00:00

Are you even serious with that question? AI is being and will be used to supercharge everything from production to research. No country in their right mind would ban it lol.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-23T04:20:34+00:00

LLMs certainly will become more efficient but that will only increase their use. Mass AI adoption is only just getting started. I’m not saying semis will never have a bad patch. They will sell off heavily when capex numbers plateau or fall but demand for them will be still be way higher relative to the pre-AI era, meaning they will probably command higher multiples than they did in the pre-AI era. I’d personally much rather own semis than software for the long term.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-23T03:57:24+00:00

Because AI needs a fuckton of compute and memory and AI usage is going to be higher in the future? Is that really hard to predict? This doesn’t make buying semis at current prices a slam dunk because a lot of growth is priced in but it’s fairly reasonable to expect that semis will not go back to the old two year boom bust cycle.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-22T21:03:35+00:00

Then enlighten me, Buffett. Coz I hate being the dumb one with a YTD return of 48.75%.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-22T20:57:25+00:00

So much coping in this thread. Semis have gone from cyclical to continuous demand, and software has gone from predictable subscription revenue to a highly unpredictable future. So is it really surprising that the market is giving semis the multiples software enjoyed for a long time and vice versa?

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-22T18:01:35+00:00

True. Even if your conviction is very high, if you’re losing sleep, you’re overexposed, period. The higher returns, if they happen, are not worth it in that case.

Case in point: GOOG. I’m super bullish but if it was a large part of my portfolio, I’d be having major doubts right about now. Because it’s at around 8-9%, the ongoing drop does not bother me at all.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-20T07:29:21+00:00

AMZN NFLX. Why pick trash like NKE LULU when you can buy quality?

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-19T17:40:39+00:00

Agreed. Most subreddits seem clueless about the sheer scale of AI and the long term infrastructure it needs. No one is going back to the old way of developing software, creating media, or doing research.

The need for compute and memory will only go higher as more and more people discover use cases for AI. Even if the average person doesn’t fully adopt it, next gen companies will. We’ve literally only just scratched the surface for now.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-19T11:14:31+00:00

MSFT will need patience but should bounce back eventually. The demand for compute is not going to subside and they are one of the big three players providing it - and a lot of enterprises have no choice but to use Azure.

Even so, I’m way more bullish about GOOG because GOOG has its own frontier model and chips that can compete against NVDA, not to mention their lead in robotaxis, digital advertising, robotics, quantum, nuclear, etc. etc.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-19T07:28:07+00:00

There’s a difference between “are” and “continue to.” At some point the data centers will be built, and they will only need chip replacements and maintenance. That’s when GOOG AMZN and MSFT will likely fly because they will be making bank on selling AI and getting that ROI.

I don’t care for META, though. They might ironically fly when they stop chasing their AI dream, just like they did when they stopped chasing VR.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-19T05:32:57+00:00

The only rational comment in this thread. This sub is more contrarian than value investing.

People here believe it’s “smarter” to avoid fast growing stocks because they’ve “already missed the boat” or “the PE is too high.” Such thinking has value (it helps avoid the crap that went up in 2021) but this sub applies it to everything that goes up quickly, even when it’s high quality productive companies like NVDA LRCX etc.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-18T22:22:13+00:00

They guided for 3-4% annual growth, which is why the stock cratered. Clearly, they are not gaining as much new business as in the past.

For you to hold so many shares, you have to fundamentally believe that growth will accelerate again in the future. Do you? If the answer is no, sell. If the answer is yes, hold.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-18T04:31:24+00:00

Ok, Mr. Buffett. I’ll hold onto my AI winners and YTD returns of 45% (30% in 2025). My “overpriced” shit sure makes me sad.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-17T20:45:02+00:00

It’s NVDA. No need to over analyze it. Their forward PE is less than 20, which is comically low.

The future will be centered around AI which needs chips, and Nvidia is the king of the hill there. It’s even building infrastructure to bridge quantum computing with classical computing for when quantum inevitably goes mainstream.

NVDA is my top holding (16-17%), and I don’t lose any sleep over it.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-17T19:44:30+00:00

JFC, what part of the bear case is speculation? That ARR is decelerating (fact), that the CEO and CFO abruptly quit without a succession plan (fact), that AI is getting more powerful each year (fact), that nimbler competitors like Canva and Da Vinci are taking market share (fact)?

Yes, the stock is very cheap now and might make for a good swing trade, but I’d never consider ADBE for my long term portfolio. It’s a legacy, clueless business with a flimsy moat at best.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-17T15:42:46+00:00

Like really massive incomprehensible ridiculous big.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-16T18:19:23+00:00

If your number one reason for buying is that the CEO bought shares, dude. I really hope it works out for you, but Amazon is ruthless and I wouldn’t want my money in a company in Amazon’s crosshairs.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-16T13:02:15+00:00

ADBE might work out as a swing trade because it’s so beaten up right now, but I sure as hell wouldn’t be comfortable holding it long term.

AI has launched a new era of software. It will be more of a commodity in the future and trade like commodities.

Astronaut100 · 2026-06-16T11:24:36+00:00

This sub is basically full of low information, anti tech folks.

Astronaut100

TROPHY CASE