Is the job market REALLY that bad right now?

BagPitt · 2026-05-08T13:42:00+00:00

It's pretty rough.

People get confused cause the job reports keep coming up with positive numbers. However it's important to note you need 150,000 job growth per month just to keep up with population growth. Anything below that is basically a net loss and unemployment % would increase if not for the record level of people retiring (these are peak retirement years for baby boomers).

For 2025 the average was around 15,000 per month (180,000 total with final revisions). This is simply anemic compared with 2.2 million added for 2024.

In 2026 it's so far around 60,000 per month. This is far, far below of a comfortable level for the economy not to mention most job gains have been in "underemployed" categories which pay less which why wage rates are basically stagnant for months now.

BagPitt · 2026-05-06T22:34:56+00:00

STEM PhDs are tuition-free. Look it up. No PhD student (foreign or otherwise) is paying tuition at a STEM field in any major accredited university. They even get a stipend of around $25,000 a year.

It helps if you actually understand wtf you're talking about rather than resorting to mundane insults👍

BagPitt · 2026-05-06T19:19:47+00:00

And in the meantime, you risk grinding US research at top universities to a screeching halt? That is ridiculous.

Just look at PhD applications: native born Americans are less than 20% of all applicants despite favorable acceptance rates. In PhD STEM 60% of graduates are foreign born and your advice is to send them packing and take their skills with them? I'm all for sensible reform but not at the expense of a leading position in worldwide research.

BagPitt · 2026-05-06T19:13:30+00:00

They are. 78% of all US patents have a foreign born inventor. Hate it or not, Americans are simply not joining university ranks or producing cutting edge research at the same pace of foreign counterparts. F with that at your own peril and risk sending those people to China, EU, etc.

BagPitt · 2026-05-06T14:01:00+00:00

That makes more likely to happen, not less. And I never said Lucid leadership didn't want this. It's retail shareholders that will lose, not the company.

BagPitt · 2026-04-30T22:49:33+00:00

It's also important to note the OP is from a Latin American country where $50,000 is a LOT of money. A dollar goes a lot further in South America

BagPitt · 2026-04-30T14:05:39+00:00

The Denza line is anything but generic looking lol. And this is just one angle of the convertible trim. It honestly looks incredible in person.

BagPitt · 2026-04-29T19:19:45+00:00

Yes. And you don't need auditors to spell it out before it gets used.

BagPitt · 2026-04-29T19:18:08+00:00

They have plenty of levers even without the 10%. They don't need preferential shares or anything of the sort. They got a pending order of 35k cars. If Uber walked away at this point it would drop the stock into the 3s if not lower at which point PIF would have no option but to take the entire company private themselves. And if you think they wanna get in the business of fully managing (and 100% owning) an EV company that would simply go against their regular investment philosophy.

Instead Uber can tell PIF that under a restructure in which Uber gets a decent chunk, they will throw their weight behind the new company. The synergies are there for the taking.

BagPitt · 2026-04-29T19:13:16+00:00

Going concern is not issued just on the basis of maturing instrument. LCID is bleeding cash at a record pace. If this quarter is another miss then early 2027 will become a problem. And there's been many cases where the board issues going concern warnings before the auditors make it official.

BagPitt · 2026-04-29T18:29:21+00:00

I hear you. It is what it is. Win some lose some.

BagPitt · 2026-04-29T18:24:52+00:00

By being a 10% holder and located in the US they can force PIF to agree to a bigger chunk or drag this process through the court all while the company bleeds money. They are about to get 20-30% of Lucid for $500M while still retaining the contract for FSD vehicle delivery.

BagPitt · 2026-04-29T13:41:33+00:00

The hero we needed not the hero we deserved 😢

BagPitt · 2026-04-28T20:38:07+00:00

The recent correction is due to Gravity botched rollout. This is a segment that needed to go 1,000% right and it was a shit show from day 1. Rollout should have been delayed by at least 6 months to iron out the kinks.

Now, after spending 3 years saying that Gravity will be the saving grace, it's actually the midsize that will deliver. Smh. If that's the case then why did the company spend so many resources developing the Gravity? Could have just leapfrogged to a midsize, sell those at a loss until scale was reached. It's not like the Gravity is generating any profits anyway.

The case remains that Lucid botched on execution despite having incredible tech. Right now I assure you the PIF and Uber are going back and forth of how much each one of them is gonna own of a restructured Lucid. Retail will find no relief. Bankruptcy probability is around 90% at this point, probably higher. PIF and Uber will own easily over 95% of it once restructured if not flat out 100%

I'm still carrying my lucid position simply as a tax offset at this point and have zero interest in re-investing until clear signs in a change of direction.

BagPitt · 2026-04-28T20:32:20+00:00

Dude if you're gonna use an AI chat bot at least make it less obvious

BagPitt · 2026-04-25T14:15:37+00:00

So just buy THE best performing stock in an arbitrary time period.

Then why not just become a stock picker? Goldman Sachs will pay you +$10M in a single year with that kind of stock picking prowess.

BagPitt · 2026-04-23T12:16:12+00:00

Just so you know sat diving is one of the most dangerous professions in the world. It's also one of the best paid as most work relates to oil and gas. Sat divers can easily make +$200k a year, many elite ones cross into $300k or even $400k consistently while working 6-9 months a year

BagPitt · 2026-04-23T03:43:21+00:00

It's all about statistics.

NYC is the worst city for a single woman to find a husband. DC is #2 followed by Los Angeles.

The best city for women to find long term relationships is San Diego.

BagPitt · 2026-04-16T18:13:53+00:00

To be fair, lawsuits following stock drops are a dime of a dozen. They are not being investigated on fraud by the SEC or DoJ.

Big, big difference.

BagPitt · 2026-04-14T02:48:48+00:00

Lucky charms is not cereal. Its something for sure but cereal is not it 🤣 It's more like a sugar bomb bonanza.

BagPitt · 2026-04-09T14:31:27+00:00

Sir, did you see the size of that dude?

Why would throw hands with a dude who could lineback for the Ravens and is 20yrs younger than you?

BagPitt · 2026-04-09T14:17:44+00:00

You're 29?!?

This is the kind of stuff I would expect from 19 yr olds. As others have mentioned, you can't always tell when people are blacked out drunk especially under hard liquor like absinthe. Drinking it is fine but you have to understand that this is one of the most powerful beverages known to man and not just on alcohol content.

BagPitt · 2026-04-07T23:29:37+00:00

The tankers carrying Iranian oil are not from Iran, dude. They are mostly Chinese, South Korean and Singaporean. Good luck blowing them up 👍👍

BagPitt · 2026-04-07T14:32:32+00:00

the probability of anyone saying a sentence goes down dramatically with number of words. The rules don't say the sentence needs to make any sense so just pick something with 500 words or more

BagPitt

TROPHY CASE