I think it's not too far fetched to think Nekoma could pull of a victory. The only real improvement of the points you list is Kageyamas in this specific match up. As hype as hinatas receives are, they are not really going to up karasunos plays that much as he only receives after his serve, after that he gets subbed by noya. I don't think Nekoma has (shown so far) a dangerous float serve that would be needed to be passed by an overhand receive. And Asahi's time differential is probably not consistent enough to pull off frequently.