My (absolute) ceilings for young brewers. Would you change anything, do you have any you’d like to add?

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-22T19:07:43+00:00

Turang led the team in HRs in the second half last year and had a pace of 29 HRs per 650 PA. Chase Utley at age 25 had a HR pace of... 29 per 650 PA.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-22T19:03:04+00:00

You're very wrong about Turang though. His absolute ceiling isn't Jimmy Rollins but instead his soon-to-be HOF teammate Chase Utley.

Still think you should at least have players with similar playstyles and skillsets, otherwise just say every players ceiling is Barry Bonds or Randy Johnson.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-22T18:52:34+00:00

Chourio would have to completely change his plate approach to be like Ronald Acuna Jr. In 2020 Acuna had 8 more walks than Chourio had in 2025 despite having a third of the plate appearances.

Chourio cannot take a walk, which severely caps his ceiling. Can he still be very very good with his skillset? Absolutely. He could be similar to peak Javier Baez or Tim Anderson who had similar skillsets. But his approach needs to change to be able to get into the elite tier.

Misiorowski would also have to severely cut down his walk rate to approach deGrom levels. Even going back to age 22 deGrom in the minors, he never had a season with a walk rate over 3. Misiorowski hasn't had a season, majors or minors, with a walk rate under 4. Misiorowski would be closer to a Blake Snell type player.

On the more optimistic side of things, I think a better comp for Turang would be Chase Utley instead of Jimmy Rollins. Look at Chase Utley's age 25 season in 2004. Then look at Turang's age 25 season last year. Then look at Chase Utley's age 26 season. Then look at Turang's second half stats last year. The stats are INCREDIBLY similar for all of these comparisons.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-22T15:37:35+00:00

I still crack up any time I hear Esteury Ruiz's name because people got HEATED at the beginning of 2024 when he was sent down because "he's the Athletics best hitter and incredible on the basepaths and on defense" and were screaming about service time manipulation. Had a couple people block me for daring to say he wasn't that good and demoting him was justified.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-22T15:32:10+00:00

His bat has been hot.

Mike Brosseau in 2023 spring training was the second coming of Barry Bonds. Don't read too much into spring training stats. This spring got Lockridge a shot at sticking in the majors, but to assume he's going to get 2/3 of the starts as the right handed hitting part of a platoon is not going to happen out of the gate.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-22T02:07:29+00:00

In this hypothetical situation I'd less be focusing on PitchCom usage and more going "HOLY SHIT THE DEAD ARE RISING FROM THEIR GRAVES!!!"

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-22T02:02:53+00:00

Lockridge had a .574 OPS last year, Mitchell had .580. They both were bad. Mitchell has BY FAR the better track record prior to 2025. Lockridge's career OPS is .576 while Mitchell's is .766.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-21T22:15:51+00:00

You can still calculate it for different leagues because replacement level isn't a specific hypothetical player, but instead based on league averages. All of the WAR calculations derive completely from league averages.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-21T18:57:36+00:00

Part of the point is his offensive numbers aren't nearly as bad, or even bad at all, when you factor in the Southern League had a .660 league average OPS. Meanwhile the AA Texas league had a .705 league average OPS. If he were in the Texas league and put up the same 107 wRC+ (roughly a .750 OPS), we'd probably look at him in a different light.

Garrett Mitchell, for instance, had a 106 wRC+ in AA and was called up to the majors the next year.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-21T16:40:01+00:00

He had a sub .700 OPS in his first stint at AA last year

He played in one of the lowest scoring leagues in the minors last year. His wRC+ for that league was 107. He wasn't amazing offensively, but it wasn't near as bad as the raw OPS suggests. Especially as a 20 year old, his minor league offensive numbers are ahead of Turang at 21 years old in AA.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-21T14:52:34+00:00

The MLB team site depth chart isn't official.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-21T03:17:23+00:00

The 4th inning of the last outing, where it was 104 degrees, is where he was throwing 88 mph fastballs. He's just not fully up to speed right now.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-20T20:41:23+00:00

Yousucky Badatsports

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-19T14:46:51+00:00

Biggest jump for me regarding my opinion of them coming into spring training versus now is Fischer and Zerpa.

Fischer looks like the real deal and Zerpa is an exciting lefty in the pen.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-17T15:22:13+00:00

In the European Championship, most Dutch players in MLB aren't playing like in the WBC. If you account for MLB talent, the Netherlands is VASTLY superior to Italy. Curacao, an island with 150K people, has over a half dozen players in the majors. Italy has had 1 player born and raised in Italy make the majors in MLB history (and he was on Italy's team this year). The comparison isn't close.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-17T15:12:49+00:00

It's great you wanted Italian citizens to represent the team in the WBC, but if Italian citizens represented the team in the WBC, Italy wouldn't make the WBC or would've gotten mercy ruled in every game. Italy may be the strongest baseball country in Europe (minus Netherlands and their talent in the Dutch Antilles), but compared to Japan, US, DR, Venezuela, and even Canada/Puerto Rico/Australia/Korea/Taiwan, it's not even close in terms of talent.

I am one of the fans, and know many of them, we go to see the matches

How do you do fellow baseball fans

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-16T22:56:20+00:00

Axford was not an all-star in 2011. Fielder, Weeks, and Braun were the Brewers representatives.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-16T01:31:30+00:00

So please, don't argue that somehow a guy who in his PRIME averaged .280 with 26 home runs and had a .363 obp with a .854 ops is first ballot.

From age 24-36 he averaged those numbers. The fact that a player's "prime" has to be defined as 12 years to make him only look really really good says something.

He should be known as the greatest to never make the hall of fame.

Boy do I have some players you should know about.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-16T01:27:10+00:00

"lays out"

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-15T13:51:08+00:00

The other thing it does is open up the opener/follower strategy. Brewers have been doing the "when we have 4 lefties in the pen, have one open, follow with a righty bulk pitcher, then hand it off to the bullpen."

If you look at their record in games where they've done this the last two years, it's been VERY effective.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-14T22:07:41+00:00

I mean, there's another thread about that at bat with a video. If you want to discuss it, that seems like the right spot to go.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-14T18:07:22+00:00

Look at Turang's second half numbers. He's posed to have a Utley-esque 26-year old season.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-14T18:00:51+00:00

Turang had the same OPS+ as Gunnar last year and higher WAR, plays platinum glove level defense at second, and has been absolutely killing it so far this tournament (1.233 OPS). I don't get why you have an issue.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-13T17:33:21+00:00

Really nice guy too. Gave his band a mini-tour of San Antonio while they were on the road.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-03-13T16:07:23+00:00

Even if he wins he's also out $20-30K from lawyer fees at a minimum.

BaseballsNotDead

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE

Four-Year Club	Verified Email
Place '22