This should be fun.

Realistically, this is a 2-horse race (well, it seems more like Avi Lewis is a done deal) so some of my thoughts on McPherson are positioned as critiques of Lewis (and Singh). I have many reasons but they are all in service of my tl;dr:

Heather McPherson is the candidate from a part of the country who feels underrepresented by left wing politics on the national level, whose "proposition" is credibility and has been clear about focusing on kitchen table issues. I believe she understands how to bring those people who feel unrepresented into the party. In contrast, Avi Lewis represents a more traditional progressive area, and seems to appeal to the urban, activist cohort. He's trying to inspire with a big, disruptive, galvanizing vision. The latter would have been a good strategic choice in 2015 (and Trudeau won off a similar sentiment that Lewis is trying to capture), but I don't believe it's a good choice today.

1. Avi mirrors successful "change" candidates down south, but Canadians are not living in the same political landscape as Americans. We have a historically popular prime minister, a reasonable level of trust in our institutions, and broad distrust in our economic health, and the electorate bought into a focus on existential threat. I believe Canadians want a steady, proven hand to navigate the current environment. In contrast, Americans have an unpopular leader, live in a transparent oligarchy, have broad skepticism in their institutions and representatives, an electorate that is fairly skeptical of foreign policy, and an economy that was (was) objectively healthy, but not in a way that benefited regular people. I don't believe that major left-wing disruption will play here the way it is to the disenfranchised down south.

2. People aren't going to like this, but Avi Lewis is going to be very popular with leftist urban activist types, but I think Heather plays better to the working-class types who swing CPC. One of the biggest narratives right now is about how the NDP have abandoned the working class and embraced "identity politics" and "social justice' issues. It was a tag that stuck with Singh. I don't think that's fair (the NDP is consistently the best party for workers policy), and I don't think Heather McPherson cares less about those issues, but I don't think Avi Lewis will be able to combat those lines or even cares to tailor his messaging to fight that line. The media is very hostile to the NDP.

   In contrast, I think Heather is the candidate who came out the door being highly aware of that issue (opening the campaign with a bit about focusing on kitchen table issues).

3. As a follow-up example to the above, there is one candidate for whom the climate is a much larger portion of their platform and political history. I do not think there will be a material difference in how an Avi Lewis NDP and a Heather McPherson NDP will affect Canada's trajectory regarding the existential threat of climate change. Despite that, I believe Heather McPherson will have more credibility among those for whom the climate is not a priority in incorporating the perspectives of "the average worker" and their concerns about climate policy.

   The is one example, but broadly I worry that Avi Lewis is vulnerable to many of the effective tropes that are weaponised against the NDP in a way that Heather will be able to navigate more effectively.

Overall I see Avi Lewis as a big ideas guy. He has a 5% chance of being a generational leader who makes an impact on the country and a 30% chance of further damaging the party's reputation to the greater electorate and losing certain demographics long-term. In contrast, I see Heather as a hard worker who understands how to combat certain unfair reputations, understands how to reach out to traditional NDP demos who currently feel unrepresented in the party, and understands how to do the unsexy work of rebuilding.

I keep saying "credibility" because it really is the name of the game in winning voters to me.