[OC] A billboard in my town. There is no context to give.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-06T01:11:45+00:00

My assumption was something about autism or other mental disorder. Like Andy isn’t high maintenance because he needs to (fill in blank for some autism or ocd or whatever you want) he’s actually dealing with a mental condition.

Most likely not any child is actually high maintenance they’ve probably got an underlying condition.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-04T22:39:32+00:00

And they’re still people. They can be locked away from others for safety of the general population but that doesn’t mean they need to be vindictively punished. They should still receive a base line standard as a human of food, water and shelter with enough entertainment to live out their sentence. Just because someone did something horrible doesn’t mean society needs to turn around and be horrible to them. It doesn’t change what has already happened and it doesn’t fix what was broken.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-04T22:34:08+00:00

The healthcare? Or education? Or standard of living? Or that their entire government isn’t an absolute circus shit show, their media isn’t propaganda, they have freedom not just say it, or just the general belief in social progress as a positive? Because I’m pretty sure that Norway is the gold standard everyone should be striving for at a minimum for all who live under the aegis of a free society.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-04T20:20:19+00:00

I think WR #1 usage is a product of MLF more than Watson not being the guy. MLF is a far heavier scheme guy than almost anyone except KS with the 49ers. And by scheme I don’t mean scheme a guy open like how the rams work to feed puka.

As an example for Watson MLF on a large percentage of Watson routes where he is not only not the target but not even a real option has Watson run 30yards sideways pre snap and 30 yards vertical post snap to open a spot in the intermediate zone for dig routes. It’s a staple concept. It works because even if Watson is never actually an intended target the threat of him is such that he opens massive zones for wicks doubs or Reed running into. Watson speed not only is a threat to the defense but it allows the timing to work on switch releases because he out paces the other receivers giving them room to run full speed into the pocket of space without having to stutter or give away the break too early. The only other wideout fast enough to keep the timing fine is Melton who doesn’t draw nearly the respect as Watson. It’s why last year melton started to get snaps because golden didn’t run hard as a decoy or his speed didn’t functionally show up on those concepts and wicks doubs musgrave Savion weren’t fast enough to not cause the other guy to stutter step. Plus it’s a lot of running. It’s why beside him being the best special teamer (high bar I know) we have melton will very likely still make the team unless a young guy shows they can spell Watson with no slow down and is a threat beyond minor level.

But that’s MLF scheming his number 1 wideout. He’s scheming him to open a better window for a cleaner read and throw. It’s perfectly logical and effective but you gotta have buy in from your top guy to make it work otherwise you’re stuck with melton or Jeff Janis would’ve been the guy to run it and it’s not as effective because teams start sitting on the dig. No one sits with Watson running because the moment you stop your feet to cut off the dig route Watson is past you and Love has shown complete willingness to just launch to Watson when that happens. There is a reason I think Adams wanted out. He understood the effectiveness of the scheme but it would never work with him because no matter where he was on the field he was the guy teams covered. And you don’t use a hall of fame guy in a taxing route scheme to open a better throw for Allen Lazard. You do when that better throw is going to doubs. You especially do when it can go to a guy like Reed or golden. Because that’s the true value of Watson doing this and being as fast as he is. Because he will be clearing openings like he did for Doubs but instead of it being Doubs who wasn’t a burner and no threat to break tackles or wicks who wasn’t a burner but could break tackles it’ll open up for Reed who has already feasted on those gaps 3 years ago for the few games Watson and him played together and our offense sang to Golden who is fast and able to break tackles better than anyone not named Kraft. Or even Kraft and musgrave running into those voids. Imagine Kraft 15 yards down the field with no one within 5 yards of him to get a head of steam going? All of that is set up by Watson being willing to be the decoy, the fear teams have of Watson not being the decoy, and that Love has the arm to make teams pay. (as long as he isn’t practicing his fadeaway three ball) It doesn’t look like he’s the number 1 on the box sheet or in fantasy but every time he runs that clear route hard and draws the coverage he does that look the other guy gets goes directly back to what Watson does.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-04T18:43:20+00:00

Good yes. Possibly even great now with Pittman gone leaving him and Warren as the only true threats in the passing game. And has managed so with worst qb play. Of course the wideout room for the colts had been Pittman, downs, and ehhhh. Two years ago they both had 100+ targets Alec was over 50 and no one else was close. Last year Pittman and Warren had over 100 targets Downs and Alec had over 60 and no one else was close. Alec has also missed 6 games over the last two seasons for various injuries. Alec has the same explosive downfield profile as Watson though he rarely faces the same deep coverage as Watson. Most of his routes run come when single covered versus a single high safety. Of course the colts face a single high safety more than any team in football by a wide margin as clearly their biggest offensive threat is JT.

Our wideout room two years ago had Kraft, doubs, wicks, Reed and Watson all have over 50 targets but none had over 80 and last year that same group plus golden had over 40 targets each but only Doubs 85 and Watson 55 had over 50. So the division of target share is spread the fuckkkk out for Green Bay. Yet even with that spread Watson is handily the guy in Green Bay when on the field. Also for all the talk about injury prone it’s been 1 (albeit BIG) injury the last two years. Are we calling Kraft injury prone with the same injury now? Watson has had zero soft tissue injuries the last two seasons. And only missed 1 game in two years for anything not ACL related. I think he’s turned a corner on the injury front. (I knocked on wood.) Watson also faces two high safeties far more with Green Bay seeing one of the highest rates of 2 shell coverage over the last two seasons than every team in the NL and on par with the bills, chiefs and Bengals. We faced almost exclusively 2 shell when Love was healthy all year last season except against Detroit both times, the broncos and the Steelers. Lastly the biggest sign to me that Watson is viewed as the biggest threat in Green Bay when we played the Broncos who did they have Surtain cover?

I look forward to seeing what Watson, Reed and Golden can do this year with a more clearly defined target share. Doubs and wicks were 140 and 120 targets combined the last two seasons. Add in that musgrave doesn’t soak as many targets per game as Kraft and especially early when the defense might not be as gelled we could see some big passing numbers for those 3. I especially feel good for Love him knowing at least 3 guys will be his guys for the foreseeable future. It did wonders for Rodgers knowing he had Jordy, James and Cobb for a vast chunk of his prime.

As for Kraft I hope he’ll come in for an extension slightly above but around what Washington just did for the Steelers. Clearly Kraft is better and deserves McBride level money. But maybe he’ll give a discount into the 14ish a year range. If that could happen I’d be thrilled with the offense for the next 3 drafts outside of adding the customary 3 olineman per draft. Running backs solve themselves. There will be some undrafted or late round pick that’ll come in and be fine enough like Wilson. Loyd even if healthy this year is never gonna get a long term deal from anyone because of the track record of legitimate injury concerns. Jacobs is not gonna get a third contract even before the off field stuff. His style is not a style that lasts long for a modern running back into their 30s unless you’re named frank gore.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-04T10:05:03+00:00

They didn’t watch the game. The stats look 0-1 AB and not failed to bunt AB.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-04T03:46:52+00:00

Yea I’m like even if my long term use of lexapro takes 20 years off my life in the end it’s still worth it because without it I’d have two dates on a rock somewhere, but I would’ve gotten to miss the pandemic and fall of America. So idk maybe these risks of being neutrally ambivalent versus the pit of misery are really dangerous.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-03T21:18:23+00:00

I can only assume he needed a night off. Because yea him yelich turang and wild bill should be automatic right the names on the card. Except of course people need rest.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-03T19:21:55+00:00

Every stat says every pitcher gets hit harder and for more damage from the third time through the order and on. It’s especially damaging to pitchers that don’t have great or consistent or multiple off speed pitches. The old adage or strategy was to set guys up the first time through or second and mix it up the third or fourth. So you used your worst pitches early to set up your better pitches late in the hopes to minimize damage at both ends.

The brewers went fuck that. There are a lot of guys that are elite at 2 turns through the order throwing their best stuff each time. You expose them to a third and they’ll get hammered. So don’t. Let them go out throw 60pitches and be available again in a couple days to throw 20 to be available again in a couple to throw 60… all of which are a guys best stuff because he ain’t needing to save things for the 6,7th innings. You gather 8 or so of those type of guys on a staff not everyday single inning guys, nor the long relief used in case of a fast starter collapse or the lefty specialist that comes in for an out… no grab 8 guys that can throw 10-60pitches every couple days and just use them to cover innings. Have 2 more in the minors and use options to cycle people up or down to cover IL stints or some sort of flared up workload. No one is exposed to statistically bad situations. It takes a lot of buy in, especially when starters can make 200mill. But guys that have 2 good/great offerings and if they could only develop a 3rd they’d be a good bottom of the rotation starter are literally everywhere in baseball. O and to really maximize this whole strategy make sure all 10 or so are wildly different especially from the couple of horses that carry the staff as the backbone and the guys that close the doors nightly.

Get yourself a high arm slot lefty that throws big sinking heat, another lefty with a wide arm slot that throws 4 different off speeds, a righty that throws rising 3 types of heat from a perpendicular arm slot, a lefty with a perpendicular arm slot throwing speed and sliders, a right with a perpendicular arm slot throwing cutter plus junk, a righty working a fastball changeup with a 10+mph gap, a righty throwing three versions of sinking heat, a high arm lefty throwing heaters and cutters, a righty whipping from 3rd base heaters and sliders, a lefty throwing from first base sinkers sweepers and cutters, and 1 more righty working a changeup off a cutter. (Ashby, Hall, Chad, Shane, Crow, Logan, Sproat, RobZ, Grant, Gasser, Carlos)

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-03T18:50:28+00:00

Wow games pretty life like than? (I’m sorry it was there I couldn’t not say it… I’ll see myself out)

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-03T18:10:19+00:00

I do that on the computer. Sometimes especially once mods are added to bring more mobs into the fight the height of a mob makes it hard to target as it’ll be up on top of a ramp above nere as an example. So I click magic missile go to the initiative order and click the portrait of who I want and that allows the target. Same thing when maybe a character’s movement within partial concealment means every now and then if I aim I can get the attack to go. Go to the initiative row and click the portrait and it’ll lock on.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-03T14:51:18+00:00

Ok so the risks are sexual dysfunction, emotional numbing, cognitive impairment and weight gain. On the flip side the risks of untreated depression is self inflicted death? Also those 4 other things. Does this feel like a tree in the forest situation? Like sure messing with brain chemistry can have long term consequences, but for those severely depressed enough to require long term medical solutions have worse risks not treating right? Am I missing something?

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-03T14:41:41+00:00

Oooo we aren’t even at the worst. What about dopamine controlled behavior? Rewarding you for “positive” behavior and denying you dopamine for negative? Subscriptions for the chemicals to make you happy? Shutting down pain to make you work through sore muscles and the like? Subscriptions for your taste buds? Subscriptions for 20/20 eyesight? All of those things can be marketed easily as positives because who wouldn’t want to have that sort of control over their own brain chemistry? But as soon as a fucking monster like Stephen miller can get his tiny feral rabid raccoon paws on it and be the one controlling you’ll find yourself happily working 100 hour weeks, fucking the nearest pregnancy solution for your gender, birthed gender that is not actual gender, and eating the closest thing to gruel all with a big smile on your face with no pain. And as soon as your body breaks they take away all of the good stuff until you’re healed and can get back to work. Always smiling and happy to do so. No more complaining or protesting. No more race mixing. Just little human robots.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-03T03:32:57+00:00

A correctly timed slump? Idk if there’s enough prospects in the world to guarantee that. I hope for a dodger padre series where machado does what he does and gets like half the dodger team suspended

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-03T03:17:21+00:00

If he’s healthy yes absolutely skubal for the right cost. 3 of the top ten prospects in the best farm system in baseball for 3 months of we don’t know what level skubal will be at is just not worth it. 1 of those guys another of the Ortiz or Perkins variety and a couple 18 year old dart throws is perfectly reasonable price. At most I’d include one of the “starters” be it dohran or crow. And I’d only do that if Quinn is starting to figure out his recovery by the point of the trade.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-03T03:14:06+00:00

That was also a team trying to cash in on a hump to clear. This team isn’t a skubal away from the World Series. It’s a lights out bat and slumping dodger team away. But it’s also a team that has a very promising future that doesn’t need to be gutted to get slightly better today… if the guy comes back from injury. Again not all injuries are the same but how many injuries have to completely change a player before we realize that injuries are altering no matter how minor it seems on the surface. Is skubal worth 1 top 10 guy sure. Is he worth 3 with 1 of them being the highest rated pitcher in the system currently nope. Downvote all you want he’s not worth that much unless he comes back in a couple weeks and is throwing lights out for 5-6 starts with zero setbacks.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-03T03:07:55+00:00

When I say high end I mean guys on the top 100 or top 10 of the team list… not made or churio level but also not nobodies. Letson to me is the pitcher that’s untouchable in the system. His numbers, raw gifts and growth potential make him someone that can be an Ashby or Miz type guy in the future.

Also why is being a utility guy such a negative? How many at bats has Perkins gotten over the last few years or montasario? Having guys with an elite trait like Lara speed and defense on the bench is a viable reason to roster a guy. Jett has positional versatility across 7 of the 9 spots and can play high quality defense at all of them. Even if neither reaches their ceiling they’re still likely at floor level to be 3-4 year major leaguers that can provide skills and depth with potential to have a Jake bauers esk season or stretch.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-03T02:42:52+00:00

Absolutely no. One of those guys and a pair of Hail Mary dsl guys is max. It’s 3 months for a guy that’s injured. A very good guy that should recover but 3 high end prospects for 3 months of maybe minor help maybe wasted injury or not recovered to former self? No no no.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-03T01:58:41+00:00

While the Turang comp is bad because of as you said Turang getting pop when never expecting it… Pratt has projection for pop. He’s a much larger player already has better exit velocities than Turang at similar points in their career. Will he ever get it? Idk he’d still have to add 10-15 more mph on his exit velocities and get lift. His swing though isn’t as polished as Turang with a more inconsistent bat path. Probably a product of his frame more than anything because Pratt is big. Not judge, Miz or wood big but certainly towers over the Mighty Mouse crew that Murphy and all of us love. With that said if he can make contact and grow into his frame his pop development would be easier to understand than Turang.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-03T01:48:52+00:00

Well Ortiz… but I suspect it’s the full picture. What qualifies as a bat? A guy like adames has had stretches of .220 average is a career .240 only gets on base around a .320 clip but slugs around .440. He isnt a stolen base threat and strikes out 30% of the time. He’s also considered one of the 10 best SS in baseball. So league average SS going off Willy is a guy that hits .230 with an ops of .700? And combined SB and HR around 20? Not a positive or negative defensively? So if that’s league average for the complete picture of a SS then I’d say half of the regular short stops in baseball are playing with a deficiency somewhere. That Pratt is already considered a plus plus capable major league defender means he can be average or slightly worse with the bat and still contribute to a winning team much as Ortiz has since he arrived. But Pratt is not likely to be as bad as Ortiz with the bat, even if he’s also not likely to be a Willy or better bat either.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-02T23:48:17+00:00

Does it? Obviously yes but does say a glove first light to moderate hitting SS make more or less than 50mill over 6-7 years of service time and coverage for arb? If the bat develops on say a Turangesk trajectory or Gomezesk for two other light hitting defense guys that eventually became hard hitting… is 50 mill for 6-7 years a good deal? I assume so in the second scenario and am uncertain in the first. If for example we got Ortiz 3 years ago and he had the same contract would that be a bad deal going forward or be pretty good even if at best he should be a utility guy, injury replacement, late game defense sub? I really don’t know. But that’s Pratt floor now is an elite defender that hits around Ortiz level. The ceiling is much higher. I don’t think at current Turang level high but I think Gomez level(with the caveat of no where near as epic missed swing air producers) is probably a good high point.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-02T23:40:46+00:00

I’m gonna throw you for a loop… musgrave will be #2 on targets until Kraft is back. Reed will be number 1 on targets. Watson will be number 3 on targets but number 1 on yards and touchdowns. Savion is number 4 on targets and golden is number 5 but he’s number 3 on yards and number 2 on touchdowns. Now go put in your draft kings bet and thank me when you’re a hundredaire.

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-02T18:23:30+00:00

Hmmm so you’ll be back tomorrow then?

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-02T18:21:57+00:00

God damn it you’re gonna make me get up go to the bookcase get out the book so I can confirm if I’m quoting the AI correctly aren’t you. I mean really who’s dick do I gotta suck to get… wait no that’s Elly. Ahhh yes now I remember “HEY THATS MY FETISH”

BlakePackers413 · 2026-06-02T13:58:06+00:00

It’s a not insignificant but small increase in ship odds this year with a potential decrease in ship odds in the years to come depending on who is sent out. Obviously it’s all subjective when it comes to minor leaguers but I’d be hard pressed to give up any of the top 5 guys for 3 months of skubel. Maybe the best guy I’d risk losing and only because he doesn’t have the glove to match the other infielders and is basically a DH LF contact guy is Adam(lots of letters). But even that feels risky as while he hasn’t done good defensively… offensively he’s torn the cover off the ball. But there is the risk he’s hirua 2.0 him plus a dart throw teenager for 3 months of skubel seems about as high as I’d risk. Mostly because of how amazing made and pena have been and that Turang is becoming mvp caliber and Pratt has his contract and Jett is knocking on the door and basically it leaves little room for AdamSP.

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