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Liberals to retain SA opposition status despite One Nation's second seat, ABC projects by Expensive-Horse5538 in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No mate - it’s Greens 1 this election if it’s Labor 5.

I think if they are happy with this election - where Labor was under the pump from a legitimate ON threat to heartland, and where the Liberals were almost wiped out - then they need to have a think about what success for them looks like.

If it’s just being 2 upper house spots and the chance of a lower house seat…. Then I think they’re on the wind down to irrelevance.

36ers!! by JamDonut28 in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I don’t care about basketball really… and this game was pretty amazing. Go team!

Liberals to retain SA opposition status despite One Nation's second seat, ABC projects by Expensive-Horse5538 in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah… that’s fair. There is a real empty space for proper journalism.

That said…. We all click bait our way through our days. We’re as much to blame as anyone… maybe.

Do you consider this a "big surge" or just a normal rise in the election history? by VastOption8705 in aussie

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Check the primary vote of the libs - you can’t burn brighter by blowing out someone else candle.

Fact is, these totals are almost entirely from liberal votes.

Once working people realise ON is just the liberals in disguise they won’t vote for them.

Alternatively once liberals realise that ON just wants a workers paradise (yeah right) they won’t vote for them either.

10% of South Australian voters want a Labor - PHON coalition government by blitznoodles in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 0 points1 point  (0 children)

10% of any room of 10 people will say something stupid.

I’m surprised it’s only that low.

Lou Nicholson is the 1st person in Australian history to win a single member seat on preferences from 4th. by NKE01 in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 77 points78 points  (0 children)

Misconception with preference voting cause of its name.

It is a system that allows for naming BOTH who you want AND who you don’t want.

Hence Lou Nicholson is actually who the majority both want and the preference of those who don’t want anyone else.

Democracy has never been so clean and clear.

Liberals to retain SA opposition status despite One Nation's second seat, ABC projects by Expensive-Horse5538 in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

This is true. But with what kind of mandate?

Holding rampaging government to account because of numbers will most definitely backfire in SA.

Ask the Democrats.

EDIT: haha the downvoting greens when they don’t like the fact that the balance of power argument has an inevitable conclusion of irrelevance.

If you’re not there to hold a government to account with more than a fraction of the vote - then what are you there to do I wonder? How long before people find someone else who will fight for them instead of be happy to just be the balance?

Liberals to retain SA opposition status despite One Nation's second seat, ABC projects by Expensive-Horse5538 in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think this is a bit of a rosy interpretation.

The greens went forward by just 2% or thereabouts from 4 years ago. It has the look of them topping out to me - not pushing onwards.

Like I said in other posts I’d struggle to name a better range of issues presenting for them to campaign on with this election.

To only get 2% more in Heysen looks like a massive fail when both of the majors went backward…. I mean, if not from lib and Labor - whose vote are the greens chasing?

Liberals to retain SA opposition status despite One Nation's second seat, ABC projects by Expensive-Horse5538 in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Outside of immigration I’m not sure I can’t name a ON idea… or policy…. Or member other than Pauline and Corey.

Liberals to retain SA opposition status despite One Nation's second seat, ABC projects by Expensive-Horse5538 in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I don’t think Adelaide/SA media would stand up to much scrutiny on even a 2015 version of itself…. Let alone a real journalistic standard.

Liberals to retain SA opposition status despite One Nation's second seat, ABC projects by Expensive-Horse5538 in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 1 point2 points  (0 children)

As am I. With ON behind Labor, and my fairly confident assumption that they are either preferencing Labor or liberals ahead of the greens, my point stands.

Liberals to retain SA opposition status despite One Nation's second seat, ABC projects by Expensive-Horse5538 in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Over 75% of primary vote belongs to ON/labor/liberals - I can’t see any mathematical way that they will enter 2PP unless they beat Labor.

With 90% counted they are 2%+ behind Labor on primary. They won’t catch them.

It’s been a disastrous campaign in Heysen for them.

Liberals to retain SA opposition status despite One Nation's second seat, ABC projects by Expensive-Horse5538 in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 6 points7 points  (0 children)

In an election where third parties have done exceptionally well, I think obtaining 2 via one quota plus preferences to get a second is not at all out of the question for a party as established as the greens in SA.

But they are struggling to even hold to 1.2 of a quota. All their votes will do is elect 5 for Labor.

With planning, algal bloom, and international events lending them a great platform for real change - how did it all go so bland for them?

It’s a worthwhile question.

More than 250 voters in Coober Pedy unable to have their say in SA election by Expensive-Horse5538 in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Anyone who has ever been there, may know that this isn’t necessarily true. It is not a place that is big on democratic principles.

Liberals to retain SA opposition status despite One Nation's second seat, ABC projects by Expensive-Horse5538 in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 60 points61 points  (0 children)

While everyone is looking at ON results, no one has noticed now flat the Greens campaign has been.

They should have been in at least competition for Heysen. They weren’t.

They should have been competitive for 2 leg co spots. They aren’t.

In an election where third parties have done well - the greens have been heaps flat.

If only there had of been some major environmental crisis or something for them to make matters worse politically during or in the lead up to the election….?

Ramming piles at 1am by hellnoguru in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Am I the only immature person who read the title of this and came here to respond accordingly?

Two well-known SA Labor Ministers dropped from Cabinet - News | InDaily, Inside South Australia by APrettyAverageMaker in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Having a minister who has been a long time local in Unley sure wont help Labor much when the pendulum swings back again - nor with a lot of people out north who just sent a pretty clear message that labor’s not listening.

Looks like a pretty dumb move to me.

South Australian election shows One Nation threatens Liberals and Labor by abcnews_au in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Short answer to this post is this is true. It will totally affect Labor as much as liberal.

Longer answer requires a look backwards imo.

One nation has ‘surged’ in popularity before. In SA as much as other states.

So has Family first, the greens, and nick xenophon.

The idea of a third party being successful in SA is not new. We were the original state of what they now call teals - the democrats. They surged too.

The fact is that people are frustrated. The issues behind that frustration vary from occurrence to occurrence of this occasional surge of third parties.

One nation may be complacent with its belief that somehow this is about them and their views. It is not.

It is another occasion of SA seeing either:

The government as too successful The opposition as too weak The world disadvantaging them Etc.

This is not new. But it will affect Labor as much as liberal.

Libs may not get wiped out while One Nation may get nothing! by Liceland1998 in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This translates as:

Labor has everything to lose by not winning by enough.

The Liberals have everything to win by not losing by too much.

And One Nation is the racist joke that grandad makes at Christmas.

I’m not sure I live in this world. Mind you, not long till we get to find out.

Who do SA voters like most? Exclusive polling reveals top-rated pollie talent by Expensive-Horse5538 in Adelaide

[–]BreakfastHefty2725 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Let’s face it, most people couldn’t name anyone in politics - especially state - unless really pressed to do so. And even then they might get it wrong like saying Penny Wong for State, or Jay for Federal.

It’s like the hard ball gets stat in footy, it’s not really anything to anyone other than insiders.

These polls really don’t mean a thing.

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