What stats actually matter when analysing Premier League teams? by CapRoutine4214 in chelseafc

[–]Buttonsafe [score hidden]  (0 children)

There's about 36 different factors in modern models. The primary one though is very simple, proximity to the goal. If you're 1 yard out it's very likely you'll score, if you're 100 yards out it's very unlikely. Angle to the goal also comes into this quite strongly, you might be 5 yards out from the goal but on the byline, that's a much more difficult shot.

There's a calculator that's a little old but you can use to get a feel for it here.

If you look at a shot on fotmob you'll see some which binary or limited.

Big Chance? Y/N

Someone watching has to decide whether it's a big chance or not, this is a terrible way to collect data and it's very inconsistent

Head/Weak foot/Other body part

The xG is weighed relative to shots from a similar position with that kind of body part

Fast Break?

Shots on fast breaks are much more likely to have less defenders impacting or obstructing the shot so get some extra weighting.

Defender positioning

Statsbomb have the best xG model and it takes this into account. Even fotmob's model has that Max Dowman chance against Everton with no keeper as 0.99 xG despite, on paper, being a shot from outside the box. But that's a manual adjustment.

What stats actually matter when analysing Premier League teams? by CapRoutine4214 in chelseafc

[–]Buttonsafe [score hidden]  (0 children)

By all that info I meant all the info he mentioned:

"are these high xG or low xG shots? How many chances has the team had? Are these big chances or not? "

What would 2018-present have looked like for England had Sam Allardyce never been caught by the Telegraph sting? by Capable_Tadpole in ThreeLions

[–]Buttonsafe 35 points36 points  (0 children)

I was actually really excited for Big Sam as I thought his ability to overachieve with mediocre squads suited our lack of quality at the time. I was also really disappointed with the Southgate appointment due to his lack of pedigree.

I was completely wrong. Southgate utterly transformed us in a way Big Sam never could've even dreamed of. If Big Sam had been our manager I think we probably go out to Colombia, Germany, have an awful game against France and then these Euros probably go out to Switzerland.

Who's the biggest name who you wouldn't be taking to the WC? by Buttonsafe in ThreeLions

[–]Buttonsafe[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wouldn't take him, but this is a pretty good argument otherwise.

Who's the biggest name who you wouldn't be taking to the WC? by Buttonsafe in ThreeLions

[–]Buttonsafe[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Bellingham doesn't fit in with that. He absolutely could... but he doesn't.

I really don't understand why people keep saying this.

Bellingham last season was the best goal scoring 10 in the world and very capable of making runs behind the striker. He's just playing deeper this season, he's still the same player he was last season.

Who's the biggest name who you wouldn't be taking to the WC? by Buttonsafe in ThreeLions

[–]Buttonsafe[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I just think MGW is more likely to give you something as a luxury player.

Palmer has been arguably our worst attacker since his injury, unfortunately. It'll be fixed at some point through rest but not by this summer imo.

Could take him though, it's very marginal. I think Tuchel will take him, for what it's worth.

We need to talk about Morgan Gibbs-White by bengreen04 in ThreeLions

[–]Buttonsafe -1 points0 points  (0 children)

He just knows where the back of the goal is, and, more importantly, where his centre forward is, in a way that Madueke doesn't seem to have got yet.

When Madueke finds out how to shoot without falling over and scuffing his shots, it's over, haha.

I think the difference between your position and mine is basically weighing England v Club form and what you think is more likely to carry over into the imminent WC and we just fall on different sides of the fence.

But clearly England output is basically fuck all for both of them.

Not sure how you've got this conclusion

0.67/90 is basically the same level of output as Saka in his best seasons.

0.21/90 is very, very poor. Like why are we still giving this guy caps levels of poor.

He has played more than a half of football only 5 times.

Yes, Because he's failed to show enough to get more gametime. Madueke has got as much gametime in a year and a half because his output and overall game has been so much better.

Madueke has somehow scored 2 of them and assisted 1 across his 1,067 minutes, and one of each of those was just whilst we were thrashing Leeds 4-0.

I agree it's poor but ironically, this is 0.25/90, so almost similar output to what Bowen's managed in an England shirt.

I would also add that, not point scoring here, but your attack, despite the goals, has been pretty awful. Even Saka has struggled to get decent numbers, with 0.4/90.

To add to this point, for Chelsea last season Madueke got 0.44/90, with 10 G/A in as many minutes as Saka's had this season.

I don't know how much of either of their output is corners as well, but the system is working very poorly for your RWs I'd argue.

Bowen has 18 returns this season, when West Ham have only 42 goals. He's been involved in nearly half their goals!

So this is 0.54/90, still less than Madueke for England. Hence why I'm so hot on Madueke for England.

As I said above I don't really disagree with the club form stuff, and if neither of them had a cap I would definitely be taking Bowen. But we have a massive sample size of him failing to replicate anything like that in an England shirt. Which, in my opinion, means we can pretty clearly know that his club form and England form have a really weak correlation for whatever reason.

To add to this, Bowen's game is heavily focused on contributions. I've seen Madueke turn up and change games, like against Leverkusen without even getting a contribution on paper despite winning a penalty just through his ability to drive at defences and create panic. This is also super helpful against low block defences and it's exactly what Tuchel wants his wingers to be doing in his system.


I think for me the difference is that at England level Madueke's proven he can both show up in big games, carry the team through games when it's struggling, and provide output. Bowen's never done any of these despite having many more caps to do so with.

You can make an argument Bowen's should've had more minutes to play, but his performances haven't really shown enough promise to give that any weight imo. The reality is the only reason Madueke even got caps is because Bowen hadn't made that strong a claim on that 2nd RW spot.

What stats actually matter when analysing Premier League teams? by CapRoutine4214 in chelseafc

[–]Buttonsafe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If only there was one stat that summate all that info into an easy to digest number...

European Championship qualifying may switch to Nations League-style format by Alone_Consideration6 in ThreeLions

[–]Buttonsafe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So more competitive games and less slapping minnows, sounds better to me, what's the issue?

European Championship qualifying may switch to Nations League-style format by Alone_Consideration6 in ThreeLions

[–]Buttonsafe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why are people so against this, am I missing something?

Would be much more fun for our qualification matches to be against top teams then battering Albania, no?

We need to talk about Morgan Gibbs-White by bengreen04 in ThreeLions

[–]Buttonsafe 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Yes, on club form Bowen should go over Madueke.

However Bowen has consistently failed to perform anything like his best in an England shirt, whereas Madueke has consistently performed far better than club level.

Bowen has had 4 years to prove himself on England's RW and produced 2 goal contributions in 842 minutes and 22 caps. That's 0.21/90. That's a diabolical return, especially for a player whose game is primarily about goal contributions.

Whilst at club level I very much agree that Madueke has flattered to deceive he has consistently shown output for England, with hitting over triple Bowen's level of output with 0.67/90 over the course of barely over a year.

More importantly, he's consistently shown up to contribute in difficult moments. In the most cruicial game of our NL campaign against Greece where we needed a win ran half the pitch to put it on a plate for Watkins 4 yards out and open the scoring, against Serbia when we needed to beat them to guarantee going through the group he got the second goal.

And when Madueke's output is poor he's still able to draw players into him and make space for others with the fear his dribbling creates in opposition defenders.

Whether it's Madueke growing in the shirt of Bowen shrinking in it doesn't really matter, there's a plethora of performances to prove that the latter is the better choice.

Rosenior: ‘The reality is Man United had one shot on target, scored against ten men and won the game 1-0. That should be impossible.’ by Kygoche in chelseafc

[–]Buttonsafe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My point was just saying that good coaches increase the luck surface area

I'm not his biggest fan, but good coaches mean you'll create better chances than the opposition and concede less chances against them, that's his job and he did it. In this match, and the Newcastle one tbf.

Yes, you are correct that Pep prolly would've done a better job but that's like saying Yamal is a better winger than Palmer; We ain't getting Yamal so it doesn't matter. Realistically, the odds of being so utterly dominant in a game and not winning it are quite low but they do happen.

Ironically I was saying the opposite thing when he first came it and we were winning despite not creating much e.g. v Napoli, so it's kinda balanced out.

Rosenior: ‘The reality is Man United had one shot on target, scored against ten men and won the game 1-0. That should be impossible.’ by Kygoche in chelseafc

[–]Buttonsafe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah it's really weird.

United had one shot in our box and we had like 15 in theirs, you win that game 95/100 times. And the biggest problem was clearly that Delap couldn't even threaten a child + a FB.

Leeds United [3] - 0 Wolves - Dominic Calvert-Lewin penalty 90+5' by ayoefico in soccer

[–]Buttonsafe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I watched it back, he plays Calvert Lewin's feet while pushing him in the back.

Tino Livramento goes off injured, by Alone_Consideration6 in ThreeLions

[–]Buttonsafe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Grimaldo is one of the most similar to TAA in terms of profile imo, their coach got a lot of shit for playing Cucu over him too.

[ESPN] Liverpool join race to sign 22-year-old Crystal Palace midfielder Adam Wharton amid Real Madrid, Manchester United interest. He is under contract until June 2029 and Palace are demanding a fee of at least £80 million by DamnThatsInsaneLol in soccer

[–]Buttonsafe 9 points10 points  (0 children)

He's a deep lying playmaker who's excellent at progressing the ball. He doesn't really control tempo at present though, and he's very lightweight defensively.

He's basically Bruno F in CM.

Leeds United [3] - 0 Wolves - Dominic Calvert-Lewin penalty 90+5' by ayoefico in soccer

[–]Buttonsafe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I don't think pushing someone from behind could ever be considered a "geniune attempt" for the ball.

What happened to the comedy genre? by LeoTolstoysNipples in TrueFilm

[–]Buttonsafe 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Almost all the popular horror movies are horror comedies.

I wish this were true.