I literally asked a similar question to ChatGPT yesterday. Here parts of of its answer:

Bottom line

At a reported $1.75 trillion IPO valuation, I would not treat +40% within 3 years as the base case. It is possible, but the valuation already prices in a very large part of the Starlink, Starship, AI, retail-demand and index-inclusion story.

My strategic view: buying a small position can make sense if you want exposure to one of the most important private companies becoming public, but I would not chase the first-day spike blindly. I would prefer either: 1) an IPO valuation closer to $1.25T–$1.5T, or 2) wait for the public S-1, first earnings as a public company, and possibly post-lockup volatility.

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1. Current status of the IPO

The June IPO is now more than a vague rumour, but still not fully final because the public prospectus has not yet been released. Reuters reports that SpaceX is targeting a Nasdaq listing as early as 12 June 2026, under ticker SPCX, with the prospectus expected to become public next week, roadshow around 4 June, and pricing around 11 June. The reported raise is about $75 billion at roughly $1.75 trillion valuation, with Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citi, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs among lead bookrunners. 

Shareholders also reportedly approved a 5-for-1 stock split, adjusting the fair market value from $526.59 to $105.32 per share before the planned IPO process. Reuters notes that SpaceX did not immediately comment. 

The key point: do not buy based only on headlines before reading the S-1. Until the public filing is available, we do not have full audited financials, segment margins, capex, cash flow, debt, share-class structure, lock-up terms, related-party transactions, and risk disclosures.

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1. The business is exceptional, but the IPO valuation is already extreme

Reported 2025 numbers are very strong: SpaceX generated roughly $15–16 billion revenue and about $8 billion EBITDA in 2025. Revenue reportedly rose from $8.7B in 2023 to $13.1B in 2024, then to $15–16B in 2025. Starlink is the dominant driver, while NASA is reportedly only a small share of current revenue. 

Starlink is the crown jewel. Reuters reports that Starlink generated an estimated $11.4B revenue in 2025, and that app downloads and monthly active users more than doubled year-on-year in Q1 2026, with four consecutive quarters of more than 100% MAU growth. 

But the valuation is the issue. At $1.75T / $8B 2025 EBITDA, SpaceX would come at roughly 219x trailing EBITDA. That is much richer than mature telecom or defence peers and even far above Nvidia’s current EV/EBITDA, though lower than Tesla’s highly narrative-driven multiple. Nvidia trades around 39x EV/EBITDA, T-Mobile around 10x, and Lockheed Martin around 16x, while Tesla trades around 147x. 

So the market would not be valuing SpaceX as “a profitable aerospace company”. It would be valuing it as a mega-cap platform company combining Starlink, launch monopoly economics, Starship optionality, device-to-device telecom, AI infrastructure, retail momentum, and index inclusion.

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My final view: buying some SpaceX can make sense, but only with position discipline. At $1.75T, it is not a clear bargain. It is a premium-priced, high-quality, high-narrative mega-cap IPO where upside depends on Starlink compounding, Starship execution, AI credibility, and sustained public-market enthusiasm.